That concept always seemed silly to me?
Does it include ST? Why not?
What if a guy throws 130 innings one year, but 200 the next....throwing 3 pitches less an inning. That's 210 pitches. How many innings is that worth?
Tom House, when he was pitching coach for the Rangers, used to have guys throw footballs on the off days...Do those count?
You get the idea. There are too many variables for this to make any sense.
Nolan Ryan went 131-152-284......Sure ruined him.
This is one of those arbitrary "rules" designed to appear as if you are protecting an investment. But it isn't a Rule of Muscular Development or a Law of Kinesthetics.
ERam in the rotation is Best Option #1. Starting as the LRP is #2, but he would get ample starts to establish himself (again) that way, too.
Right now the question might be if Saunders shouldn't start in that role.
moe
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Q. The SP Stack role would buffer Ramirez' IP, too, right?
A. Nah...
In a vacuum, you could say, maybe it's a good thing to buffer Ramirez' innings a little. If you let him go one, two months out of the pen, then he can go full guns over his last 25 starts. He'll be fresh for our October stomp through the postseason, right?
I might apply this to some pitchers. I would NOT apply it to Erasmo Ramirez. If he's not ready for 200 in 2013, there's no such thing as a pitcher his age who is ready. We're talking sabermetrically, not physically.
The BaseballHQ "rule" is not to increase a pitcher more than 50 innings per season, and especially not twice in a row. BaseballHQ doesn't want to see this:
- Y1 -- 80 IP
- Y2 -- 150 IP (more than 50 extra innings)
- Y3 -- 220 IP (more than 50 extra innings, again)
First of all, I'm not aware that BaseballHQ's rule has been confirmed, and neither is Bill James aware of any proof that the rule is accurate. If he's not aware of the research that confirms the IP+50 rule, I'm guessing you are not, either.
Second of all, why are we going by total innings in a calendar year? Do you go by total bench press movements in a calendar year? If the 200 IP are stretched over seven months, why is that worse than 175 IP in five months? Watch the number of pitches he throws AFTER HE'S TIRED THAT DAY. Then give him proper rest, and then let him throw again. If that's 300 innings in a year, so what?
Third of all, let's suppose you do go by the IP+50 dogma, as almost all MLB orgs actually seem to do. Here are Erasmo's actual innings the last several years:
- 2010 -- 151 IP
- 2011 -- 152 IP
- 2012 -- 138 IP
He's been poised to go 200 IP -- for a long time now. And as you know, Erasmo has an unusually clean delivery.
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Q. So he actually SHOULD be "stretched out" to 200 IP now?
A. The thing is, Ramirez did miss time last year due to the elbow. Divish points out that the Mariners may be keeping a savvy eye on that. Well, okay.
I ain't down there asking Ramirez how the elbow feels. They are.
.........
People keep saying, Like Wow Man. Ramirez Is Ruined For The Rotation Now. Based on two bullpen outings. Wedge keeps rolling his eyes and saying they can stretch him back out any time.
He's right. A swing man can take a week off, pitch zero, and go 5 IP on two hours' notice. 6 IP the next time. It ain't the big hurkin' production that people make out of it. The fact is, even Carter Capps or Tom Wilhelmsen could go 5 IP if you wanted them to. We remember Julio Mateo doing this once for the M's. Couldn't you go out and throw 90 pitches right now?
90 pitches ain't the Boston blinkin' Marathon. A guy can throw a 5-ounce ball, 5 sets of 15 reps. Especially if his form is perfect.
We get locked into familiar patterns, that's all.
They want to stack Erasmo for a little while, he can swing back into the rotation at any time. What he'll find there, in the jaws of Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols, that's another matter.
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Comments
If you go 80 innings one year but it happens in 40 games, 8 starts, 32 bullpen sessions, requiring a bunch of extra pitches to warm up...or if you go 80 innings giving up a 5.50 ERA one year and then 170 innings the next year but only giving up a 2.90 ERA (thus facing fewer batters per inning by far)...then you should NOT be measuring by innings!
We should measure by total throws, including estimates for warm-up tosses, throws to first base, etc...and we should add to this measurement an estimate of high stress pitches.
And even after you do THAT much, you have to make your rules about young pitchers with their specific mechanics involved in the process. Do you know very many people who throw more smoothly than Erasmo Ramirez?