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RUNDOWN: Jeremy Bonderman

From one extreme to the other, Dept.

Another big win for Bonderman, er, for his team on Sunday.  He locks down a team, Oakland, that has just whupped Hisashi Iwakuma twice in a row.

Also to Bonderman's credit:  a 4-1 win over the Yankee$ and a 3-2 win* over the Angels, who detonated Felix Hernandez two days later.  All this in Bonderman's first five starts back from dry dock.

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WHEEL AROUND, RH PICKOFF MOVE CATCHES ICHIRO FLATFOOTED:  Bonderman had not pitched since 2010 ... who knew who he was?  He returned in 2013, and in 5 starts since, has run a celery-crisp ERA of 3.30.

Even worse -- for Seattle's enemies, that is -- Bonderman took his first mulligan (five innings, seven runs) and since then, has ripped off four lockdowns.  Back to back to back to back, baby.  What comes after three-peat?

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ICHIRO JUKES SECOND BASEMAN, IS DIVING INTO 2B:  But Jeremy Bonderman's control ratio is 10:10 ... in 30 innings.  Nothing but pure, 10:1 distilled luck(TM)?

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Dr. D SCURRIES FOR THE 2B BAG TO TAKE THE THROW:  In his first incarnation, Bonderman was the league's ultimate Stupid Pitcher.  He had great stuff, with horrible pitchability, an ERA much higher than his K/BB/HR predicted, and a long string of stubborn 3-1 fastballs on his resume.

HE IS THE OPPOSITE NOW!   Bonderman is out there pitching with a scalded-cat sense of danger ... nibbling and picking and, convincingly, expanding the strike zone whenever he can.

We were surprised to hear him say, on TV, that his good stuff is gone, that he no longer has the wipeout slider he used to have, so he's just trying to pitch to contact.  Sure enough, the Brooks chart documents the fact that his old slider used to run 85 MPH rather than 81, and we'll certainly buy the idea that it no longer has its old late break.

In Bonderman's specific case, this self-identification is a pivot point.  He no longer thinks of himself as a bully; he thinks of himself as the bully-ED.  And so he's keeping his fingers out of the dog's mouth.  He sees himself as an innings eater.  His ERA is now far below his xFIP.  HEH!!

Just for instance, here's a look at how many strikes that Bonderman throws, how much he challenges:

Young Bonderman 54%
ML average 50
2013 Bonderman 40 (!)

He's walking only 3.0 men per game, never giving them anything to hit.  So the BABIP is like .235.  Actually it's very like .235; it's .235.

............

It would be easy to look at the 10:10 control ratio and blow the guy off.  But visually, he's looked better than that, and who's to say that his control ratio will be 10:10 over his next five starts also?

If you just joined us, there are nine BILLION of these guys, right handers who used to have nuclear stuff, who went through career transitions and became innings eaters.  Think Freddy Garcia.  Innings eaters can run ERA+ of 90 to 110, often come cheap, and aren't resources you kick to the curb for zero reason.  

It isn't yet known (or, known by me!) whether Bonderman will jell into a good "innings eater" or a bad one."  It's a meaty plotline for the discerning SSI reader to chew on.  Well, yeah, it tastes kind of more gristly than meaty.  You're talking about a 3-to-make-1 on next year's #5 starter; whattaya expect, tenderloin?

I don't say he's a star ... he ain't one.  Nor that his ERA will be 2.08 over his next four starts.  But he's got a Kevin Millwood personality, he's got a reinvented game to work with, a very fresh shoulder, and ... well, it's just interesting how he went from Brandon League to Anthony Swarzak in just three short years of couch time.

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