1
If you could, would you swap out -- right now, for this season --
-----> Felix-Kuma-JSaunders-Harang-Bondo
for the Tacoma rotation at this instant
-----> Erasmo-Maurer-Walker-Hultzen-Paxton
Another big win for Bonderman, er, for his team on Sunday. He locks down a team, Oakland, that has just whupped Hisashi Iwakuma twice in a row.
Also to Bonderman's credit: a 4-1 win over the Yankee$ and a 3-2 win* over the Angels, who detonated Felix Hernandez two days later. All this in Bonderman's first five starts back from dry dock.
.
WHEEL AROUND, RH PICKOFF MOVE CATCHES ICHIRO FLATFOOTED: Bonderman had not pitched since 2010 ... who knew who he was? He returned in 2013, and in 5 starts since, has run a celery-crisp ERA of 3.30.
Even worse -- for Seattle's enemies, that is -- Bonderman took his first mulligan (five innings, seven runs) and since then, has ripped off four lockdowns. Back to back to back to back, baby. What comes after three-peat?
.
ICHIRO JUKES SECOND BASEMAN, IS DIVING INTO 2B: But Jeremy Bonderman's control ratio is 10:10 ... in 30 innings. Nothing but pure, 10:1 distilled luck(TM)?
.
Dr. D SCURRIES FOR THE 2B BAG TO TAKE THE THROW: In his first incarnation, Bonderman was the league's ultimate Stupid Pitcher. He had great stuff, with horrible pitchability, an ERA much higher than his K/BB/HR predicted, and a long string of stubborn 3-1 fastballs on his resume.
HE IS THE OPPOSITE NOW! Bonderman is out there pitching with a scalded-cat sense of danger ... nibbling and picking and, convincingly, expanding the strike zone whenever he can.
We were surprised to hear him say, on TV, that his good stuff is gone, that he no longer has the wipeout slider he used to have, so he's just trying to pitch to contact. Sure enough, the Brooks chart documents the fact that his old slider used to run 85 MPH rather than 81, and we'll certainly buy the idea that it no longer has its old late break.
In Bonderman's specific case, this self-identification is a pivot point. He no longer thinks of himself as a bully; he thinks of himself as the bully-ED. And so he's keeping his fingers out of the dog's mouth. He sees himself as an innings eater. His ERA is now far below his xFIP. HEH!!
Just for instance, here's a look at how many strikes that Bonderman throws, how much he challenges:
| Young Bonderman | 54% |
| ML average | 50 |
| 2013 Bonderman | 40 (!) |
He's walking only 3.0 men per game, never giving them anything to hit. So the BABIP is like .235. Actually it's very like .235; it's .235.
............
It would be easy to look at the 10:10 control ratio and blow the guy off. But visually, he's looked better than that, and who's to say that his control ratio will be 10:10 over his next five starts also?
If you just joined us, there are nine BILLION of these guys, right handers who used to have nuclear stuff, who went through career transitions and became innings eaters. Think Freddy Garcia. Innings eaters can run ERA+ of 90 to 110, often come cheap, and aren't resources you kick to the curb for zero reason.
It isn't yet known (or, known by me!) whether Bonderman will jell into a good "innings eater" or a bad one." It's a meaty plotline for the discerning SSI reader to chew on. Well, yeah, it tastes kind of more gristly than meaty. You're talking about a 3-to-make-1 on next year's #5 starter; whattaya expect, tenderloin?
I don't say he's a star ... he ain't one. Nor that his ERA will be 2.08 over his next four starts. But he's got a Kevin Millwood personality, he's got a reinvented game to work with, a very fresh shoulder, and ... well, it's just interesting how he went from Brandon League to Anthony Swarzak in just three short years of couch time.
Comments
2
The answer would be no, for me. It would mean that we had injuries to Felix and Kuma, I suppose. I don't like that part of the imagining.
However, would I swap them out for NEXT year? To tell you the truth, I think I would, even with what it means with a Felix trade. Well maybe...depending on what I get back for Felix and Kuma.
:).....Well probably not, because starting with Felix and Kuma and going 5 to make 3 with the kiddies is a very cool place to be.
I'm becoming a Bonderman believer. It might be Z's greatest call this season, because of what it could mean down the line. He's only 30 without many innings under his arm. Maybe there is 5 decent years left? But....BUT....I hadn't realized he was 10/10 K's to BB's. Yikes. 3 K's a game is WAY below survival level. Clearly we are looking at a very small sample of innings, something must 'norm up." If his K rate raises, then it's full steam ahead on keeping him as a nice insurance policy. But with that K wate, it might be his WHIP and ERA that leap upwards, too.
Looking back at his past record, once his K rate fell much below 7 per 9 innings, then he became BP fodder.
I"m hoping the small sample simply hides more foolery in his pitching. If it doesn't, the next 4 starts may be as ugly as the last 4 were pretty.
I hadn't realized that ratio. Weird. His current performance is unsustainable it that doesn't improve.
That said, I'm giving him more starts to prove it one way or the other. When ERam and Walker come up, I'm keeping Bonderman in the rotation. For now.
moe
3
He had Tommy John surgery last April, which means we're around 14-15 months into his recovery. I've read a few times that pitchers aren't fully recovered for about 18 months. Is there a possibility that Bonderman gets a little bit more back. A lot of guys; Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright, have snapped back to the same kind of pitcher they were before surgery. IF Bonderman can get back 90% of his stuff with 10 times the pitchability, he could be a real asset. He was sitting in the high 80's at the beginning of the season and has been 90-92 since coming to the majors, there could be another mile or two to gain.
4
But some guys can get away with it. Doc mentions Freddy above, I'm thinking late-career Joel Pineiro. Couldn't strike out 5 guys but could survive as a BOR dude. Basically, this is what Beavan hopes to be but can't master as of yet.
"Better Beavan" isn't exactly a selling point, but there are worse things.
Is Better Beavan better than Erasmo, though? I don't think so.
If you let me switch out E-Ram, Walker and Maurer, right now, for Harang/ Saunders/ Bonderman, I'd have trouble turning it down. And that STILL leaves Paxton and his improving form, as well as now-returned-to-the-minors Hultzen as super duper minors arms in waiting if one of those guys falters.
I dunno, it seems like a lot of effort to keep a Beavan type, unless we're trading some of our golden arms.
And since when we do that what we get back doesn't exactly power the future for us (see: Fister, Pineda) we'd better be VERY sure. Bondy starts coughing up some runs and that will look like a very suspect plan.
Luckily for Bonderman, Harang is still coughing up runs. There are other replacements we can make - but if Bondy goes, we've already done right by him by giving him a showcase for other teams that he can still get hitters out, even if it's not via the K.
~G
5
Part of the issue is that ERam is a huge injury risk. Two years in a row with extended DL time for the elbow? Very concerning especially with his build, isn't it? You have to be worried that TJ is only a matter of time.
6
I'm thinking Bonderman "might" be enjoying a slight bit of latency in opposition employing the wrong book against him, (coupled with just random blind luck).
In Tacoma, his 1.0 / 2.5 / 4.7 slashline earned him a 4.52 ERA.
It may be true that his new game caught MLB hitters unawares. Numerically, it cannot last.
Even if he has become a better pitcher, the last Seattle pitcher with a slashline even close to that ... HoRam. (1.2 / 3.9 / 3.7)
Well, if you look at Silva's 30 innings in 2009 (1.5 / 3.3 / 3.0) ... that might be closer.
The numeric key to the Bonderman success to this point is H/9.
His 8.1 H/9 is better than Felix' 8.2.
So, how is Bondo managing a .235 BaBIP? Well, it's by having a .290 BAbip agaist lefties (for an aggregate .294/.338/.471 (.808) line.
But, RHBs? Currently, they have a .139 BAbip against him. That .163/.265/.349 (.614) slashline against righties is keeping Bondo afloat.
Mind you ... there ARE a few pitchers who have shown an "ability" to suppress BABIP. Typically, instead of .300 ... they manage .290.
But, the simple truth is ... when right hand bats stop hitting the ball straight at defenders, what will happen is that they will hit the same .800 OPS that lefties have been enjoying, (or something close to it).
=========
Then again, perhaps Farquhar and Bondo had some weird luck transplant this season.
Bondo - 27 hits, 10 walks 1-HBP and 4-HRs has resulted in 11 runs in 30 innings.
Farquhar - 18 hits, 7 walks, 2 HRs has resulted in 13 runs in 19.1 innings.
If ever there was a case study for discussing the disconnect between Ks and ERA ... it is Mr. 3.0 per nine Bondo (3.30 ERA) and Mr. 13.0 per nine Farquhar (6.05 ERA).
You swap those two ERAs ... and the entire pitching world makes a LOT more sense.
7
To a PCL hitter, that must not seem very fair ... Who wins a 7-game series, Spec? That rotation, with all 2013 Rainier roster hitters, vs. the current Mariners minus Franklin, Zunino etc...
Hey, where does Andrew Carraway fit into the scenario? Says here he is 6-2, 3.41, probably the ace of a PCL team that is leading the 16-team league.
8
And I appreciate your attempt to be gracious to my article. ;- ) As we know, Jo-El developed a strange shape to his pitches and ran a strange shape to his grounder ratio ... still, Bonderman wouldn't have to be that good. Jo-El was an innings eater worthy of Cy votes.
/cosign, in John Hancock font, that the sooner we swap out our innings eaters, the better. Only thing is: LEGIT innings eaters in the bigs have considerable value.
Oddly, Zduriencik has stacked up 10-13 starters (Safeco, Cheney, Beavan, Noesi, Carraway) who would get 150+ innings for a team with rotation problems.
9
If you were on the island of Lost and had to serve as all-around physician, is that what you'd be telling ERam? Move to the bullpen?
Speaking as a baseball fan or as a surgeon here? :- )
10
He spoke, during the interview, as a guy who thought his stuff was gone never to be seen again.
But athletes surprise THEMSELVES ... the TJ is an interesting point Mal. I mean, why is Felix' velocity back all of a sudden, right? (And him getting hit now, by the way...)
11
If the goal is to get E-Ram to the bigs post-haste, why not send Beavan back to AAA to start? He hasn't been pitching enough to improve; and he needs to improve to be worth much of anything. Then send either Harang or Bonderman to the pen to be the long man, while we see if E-Ram can hold up in another try in the bigs.
12
Not an elbow problem (at least not where the injury has been indicated to me). Of course, it could be a poorly diagnosed rotator cuff problem or a ligament issue in the elbow that the triceps is compensating for...
But really, how much of an injury risk is Erasmo?
More than Hultzen, who went down with a similar injury?
More than Paxton, who keeps hurting his knee which could rip up his shoulder by proxy?
More than Walker, who's just 20, or Bonderman, who missed several seasons, or Iwakuma who threw a billion innings in Japan while being attacked by wild dogs?
Pitchers are inherently risky. I will never forget the prognosis for Mark Prior and his "perfect" pitching mechanics. Half a hundred injuries later, the greatest college pitching prospect of his generation was just an expensive pile of spare parts next to the bullpen.
A decade or so ago, Houston had a couple of phenom pitching prospects: Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. Oswalt was supposed to be riskier, what with his velocity and his diminutive size. Miller is the one who threw his arm to the backstop and never recovered. I don't think Erasmo is inherently riskier than any of our other arms, but even if he was... keeping around a #6 starter because we're scared about E-Ram's health is like keeping Franklin in the minors because of his switch-hitting: blowing a minor problem out of proportion.
If you don't like his health, make him a 9K/9 long reliever. Heck, he could be a 2 inning closer for us in a week. Or limit his pitch count/innings like we did with Iwakuma the first 2 months. But you get the 9 K/ 1 BB arm up here to help.
~G
13
LOL.
Ramirez as 2-IP closer ... I love it. LOVE it.
But the fact is, his third pitch is quality, and that creates a label...
14
No, I have no expertise in that kind of surgery. Just a concern given two straight years with major DL time.
15
That's reassuring. I was under the impression that both injuries were elbow involved. My point was not that they should keep Bondo in favor of E-Ram. Or that E-Ram is more of a risk than Hultzen (who is obviously a risk). Isn't the best predictor of pitcher health the presence of DL stints in the prior year? Walker may be the least risky (throws hard, fewer miles on arm).
However, thay also have to be careful about counting on E-Ram.
The fact that the injuries on E-Ram are not related somewhat mitigates that concern.
16
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Carraway in the major leagues next year, but not with the Mariners. There's no room for him on the 40-man and he seems like a great candidate to get snagged in the Rule 5 draft. I suppose they could protect him, but I kind of doubt it.