Harmonic Convergence of the Next Five
By unusual conincidence, the five top minor-league starting pitchers for the Mariners have now all converged on Tacoma, and, in fact, now constitute the Rainier rotation.
So let's recap these five, before we take a look at the "Next Next Five":
| Age | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Hultzen* | 23 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 2.60 | 5 | 5 | 27.2 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 0.940 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 10.7 | 5.50 |
| Brandon Maurer | 22 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 3.33 | 5 | 5 | 24.1 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 1.315 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 10.4 | 2.55 |
| James Paxton* | 24 | 4 | 5 | .444 | 4.75 | 15 | 15 | 72.0 | 82 | 47 | 38 | 5 | 32 | 76 | 1.583 | 10.2 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 9.5 | 2.38 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | 23 | 2 | 2 | .500 | 2.17 | 6 | 6 | 37.1 | 29 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 1.018 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 4.00 |
| Taijuan Walker | 20 | 5 | 7 | .417 | 2.30 | 15 | 15 | 90.0 | 61 | 31 | 23 | 6 | 32 | 100 | 1.033 | 6.1 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 10.0 | 3.13 |
The bold indicates they've played in the majors, but the stats are just from the minors.
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E-RAM The Electric Supercharger! was the first of the group to make the majors. He made the bullpen out of 2012 spring training, then went down to AAA to get stretched out and returned in June as a starter. Right after a brilliant outing on June 25 (8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K), the injury bug hit.
He came back for four more starts in September, and everyone except the Mariner brass had him penciled in to the 2013 rotation. Whether he was on track for that or not, the injury bug hit again, and now he's back at Tacoma.
Is he too injury-prone to be a safe bet? The 2012 injury was a "flexor strain" and the 2013 injury was a "triceps strain." Seems like bad luck more than "Tommy-John-in-the-making" but I'll defer to Gordon on that one.
Assuming no health issues, Erasmo is clearly a guy who will have MLB rotation success.
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Mr. Maurer Power! was the successor to Ramirez in the "surprise arm to make the MLB roster out of spring training" category. Except that Gordon had it called all along.
He made 10 starts with a 6.93 ERA before the plug was pulled and he returned to AAA. He seems to know what to work on, as his K/9 and HR/9 have reverted in Tacoma to more-normal levels.
The puzzle with Maurer has always been that his "performance-rated" results have never quite reached his "scouting-rated" talent, and that was exposed at the MLB level. It was easy to see why they wanted him there, but it didn't quite translate. His strong results so far at AAA may indicate he's "getting it."
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The Incredible Hultz! maybe would have been ahead of Maurer if not for a bout of wildness that slowed his 2012 progress. He clearly had that under control (pun semi-intended) in his first four 2013 starts before shoulder issues sent him to the DL. He returned to mow down a lineup of rookies and will return to AAA today (Thursday).
He's pretty much demolished the myth that he was "just" a "lefty command/control" guy. He's got the goods.
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We've been over this before, but it's worth repeating. Pitchers who show consistency in AA or higher at age 19 or younger are almost always stars (barring injury of course). Indeed, Chad Billingsley and his 110 ERA+ was about the worst example we could find. In other words, Cy votes, if not hardware, are the expectation.
There's no reason not to expect the same from Walker, and they've taken "baby steps" with him because there's no good reason not to.
Let's hope he's always Walker, NOT Texas Ranger.
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What to make of KKKKKKKK-Pax? I think it's this: "consistent Pax" is so gosh-darn consistent that he lulls us into thinking that "inconsistent Pax" has been banished for good. But "inconsistent Pax" popped up in college, and in the independent leagues (after he lost eligibility at Kentucky due to agent issues) ... and that's why the Mariners were able to snag him in the 4th round anyway.
Might "puzzling Pax" finally go away with some mechanical "fixes"? Lots of people think so. And his last outing (6.0 IP, 0 R, 1 BB, 11K) could be an indication. But we've thought that before.
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Soon we'll do an update on the "Next Next Five."