Kendrys Morales This Winter
.
Q. Good game today.
A. Yeah, man. First inning, Franklin on 2B. Some young righty flamethrower fired a ball into the RH batter's box. Kendrys leaned out like Ichiro and rifled a Kendry-ball back up the middle. 1-0 M's.
Saunders, then got (1) squeezed by the ump and (2) minced by the Sox, in that order. Which is the way it's going without Zunino. Sigh. There went our little run, out the door along with one headshake-inducing young rookie catcher pheenom.
But another day, another coupla hits for Big Ichiro. And he missed a Pesky Pole HR by ten feet or so.
.
Q. Is Kendrys Morales going to be next winter's version of Adam LaRoche?
A. He's not, no.
.
Q. Is he the type of player hurt most by the broad-brush comp system?
A. He is, yes.
I love this insight, the one that Big Blog pointed out (and that others have brought up here). They underlined the fact that there is now a LaRoche/Morales class of quality 3.0 WAR* player who is going to be caught in the gears of this system. This is a fascinating type of player who will now (often) be leveraged quite visibly by his retaining team.
From the Mariners' point of view it's an exciting opportunity -- Morales is a good player, and one you could win your next pennant with, and one that the current comp system actually helps you retain.
Why that should be a blinkin' Greek Tragedy, that once in a while a team has a nice inside track on its own player, I dunno. But according to MLBTradeRumors.com, the Mariners have indeed long intended to extend Morales precisely this "qualifying offer." Morales has been a likely future Mariner for some time now; we all just didn't know it.
.
Q. Does Morales resent this situation?
A. For those who didn't see the Boston game on TV today ... Dave Sims did some excellent reporting. He asked Morales about his future in Seattle. Morales said happily, I love it here. I plan to be here. "And there was a big smile on his face when he said it," Sims mused.
Morales is well aware of the economic system, is almost certainly aware that he'll be QO'ed, is unquestionably aware that it's dubious whether the Twins or somebody will offer him 4/$60M.
He knows all that, and knows he'll have to take 1/$14M or maybe negotiate 2/$30 or 3/$40 or something like that. He's apparently not real torqued off by it. (So how badly broken do you figure the system really is?)
.
Q. Gordon said he'd go even 4 years. Where is Dr. D on this?
A. Considering that the Blog-O-Sphere was into Nick Swisher at 5/$75 to 7/$105, four years for Kendrys has to be kept in proportion, yeah. We've since triangulated our guesstimates... probably three years. Maybe even two... wait a minute. As you know, SSI ain't CPA corner. You don't win pennants by paying Nick Swisher a shade the better, a shade the worse. You win pennants by finding Nick Franklin...
Morales could be a really cool piece of the puzzle. I think that particular puzzle would need a Felix-Iwakuma-Taijuan-Lee(?) type image on the front of the box. If you're not going to get a Fielder or Hamilton or AGone -- if you're going to settle for an Oakland A's offense -- I think you need something you do great. If that's starting pitching, fine by me.
.
Q. Earlier you comped him, loosely, to Swisher, the current Teixeira, and Quentin ...
A. As a pure DH, I wouldn't give you much for the difference between Kendrys and Nick Swisher. Lifetime stats:
| Lifetime | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | Remark |
| Kendrys | .281 | .333 | .486 | 121 | Age 30, holding firm |
| Swisher | .255 | .359 | .462 | 118 | Age 32, maybe declining |
You'll remember that last winter, Big Blog recommended 7 years, big dinero for Swisher. SSI's opinion was that Swisher, though a classy player, was beginning to see his batspeed decline already. It looked pretty obvious to Dr. D that he was a major age-arc risk, as we published here.
This year, Swisher's slugging percentage is down to .399. His swing-and-miss rate is considerably up this year. The case isn't closed, but I'd be fretting about Nick's age-arc at this point.
.............
At the plate, Kendrys has been 95% of what Swisher's been -- more of a .300 hitter, less of a pitch-stalker. From here on out, I expect Kendrys to be the better hitter. Kendrys hasn't lost anything at all. He looks 25 years old. Well, a 25-year-old who has a punch card at Panera.
The fact that Swisher plays the field ... you decide how relevant that is to this current roster, after it adds Stefen Romero, and so forth. Not hugely relevant to us. The point is, Kendrys is looking like he'll provide us a .300'ish, lower-BB Nick Swisher DH, pretty much, over the next couple of years.
If your star power comes from the rotation, that's mondo cool.
.
Q. Meaning Mike Morse is gone?
A. Oh, I dunno. He has to re-establish value, right? We all know about his injury issues. Injured players sometimes have healthy years. Mark McGwire disappeared for 2-3 years in 1993-1995, then got healthy :- ) and hit 52 bombs.
You could find a bunch of guys. At a cut-rate deal, it's possible that Morse could spend 2014 playing 135 games and hitting 40 homers for a Cinderella M's team.
I mean, if you're going to spend your $$ on Cliff Lee...
Cheers,
Dr D