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Jayson Jenks with a really fun little article on Felix' chances to win the Cy Young again.  The quote from Jonathan Lucroy is worth the price of admission (um, $14.95 I think) all by itself.

Lemme say good-naturedly that the Cy Young debate is pretty much for 6th-grade kids.  We mean it in a good way.

When I got into roto in 1995, the first thing I noticed was that the magazine covers were dominated by headlines like JUNIOR OR UNIT?  WHO'S THE BEST #1 PICK?  ... and when you trolled the little AOL chat rooms, the drafters spent most their time wondering who would draw the 1-1 slot, and arguing about who their first-overall pick should be.  

It didn't take Jemanji long to realize that this ain't how you win roto championships, by figuring out whether Felix or Justin Verlander was the better pitcher.  The arguments about Mike Trout vs Miguel Cabrera have absolutely zero value, not as it pertains to the attempt to win a pennant.

Ergo, if you want to argue over the 2013 Felix vs the 2013 Chris Sale?  This is strictly a pastime; whose 2013 stats are a shade the better, a shade the worse, matters not one whit to SSI.  A Hall of Fame pitcher is a Hall of Fame pitcher.  You better worry about your other 24 roster slots.

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2007-13

Now, what IS interesting, is this question:  "Can you count on CC Sabathia for a Hall of Fame season in 2014?  Who is giving you a Cy Young season not in 2013, but in each season?"  There are four of those guys right now.  Can you name them?

Since 2007, when Felix turned 21, there have been five (5) starting pitchers who have been head-and-shoulders above the pack in Wins Above Replacement (WAR):

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Exec Sum

Of that top five there ... Roy Halladay is done as a great pitcher.  Maybe he'll bounce back for a year or two.  Doesn't matter.  He had his run and you're not trading Justin Verlander for him and a sweetener, now are you?

CC Sabathia is having a terrible season, velocity wayyyyy down and racked by terminal inflammation of the gopheritis (1.4!).  BaseballHQ's preseason warning was:  "Durability:  PRO may turn into a CON" from here out.  It's a little unfair, since this could be one blip season, but ... fair or not, SSI is demoting him from the top 5.  With gust-O, amig-O.

Cliff Lee is legit, of course, and if he's slowing down it's not so's I can see it.  Justin Verlander has hit some amusing hiccups in 2013 but ... SSI classifies those squarely under the "Pitchers Will Be Pitchers" file.  Felix, Lee, and Verlander are the co-Cy Young winners of the past seven years.

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Joining the Elite

In that next group.... Lincecum and Haren have nice 7-year totals, but they're no longer the same pitchers, of course.

Weaver, Hamels, and Lester have totals that are impressive by any other standards.  By Felix' standards, they're feeb.

There are two pitchers in the discussion with Felix, Verlander, and Lee.  Clayton Kershaw has a lower 2007-13 WAR for only one reason, and we're betting you can guess what that reason is.  He has run only 3 seasons at HOF level, but ... SSI is cheerfully promoting him to the Big Four.  If you want to know why, just ax - it'd be a free URL for Dr. D's (or Gordon's) quota.

Zack Greinke seems to be the only case that's a little challenging to decide.  He's got a few little warts to him ... the last time he was in the AL, 2010, he ran an ERA over 4.  His strikeouts are down in the 7's this year.  He's only hit 5.0 WAR one time.  He is an Opening Day starter, but would you trade Justin Verlander to get him and a #1 draft pick?  I dunno.  I don't think I would.

But if you want to argue that Greinke and Sabathia add up to compose a Top Six, I won't complain.

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Said All That to Say This

1.  Who wins the Cy this year... well, send me a memo.  But?  Felix, Verlander, Cliff Lee, and Clayton Kershaw.  Right now they're the Hall of Fame pitchers in baseball.  

2.  It's odd that Cliff Lee is available.  Well, it's not odd considering the sticker price, but that's another article...