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Jayson Jenks with a really fun little article on Felix' chances to win the Cy Young again. The quote from Jonathan Lucroy is worth the price of admission (um, $14.95 I think) all by itself.
Lemme say good-naturedly that the Cy Young debate is pretty much for 6th-grade kids. We mean it in a good way.
When I got into roto in 1995, the first thing I noticed was that the magazine covers were dominated by headlines like JUNIOR OR UNIT? WHO'S THE BEST #1 PICK? ... and when you trolled the little AOL chat rooms, the drafters spent most their time wondering who would draw the 1-1 slot, and arguing about who their first-overall pick should be.
It didn't take Jemanji long to realize that this ain't how you win roto championships, by figuring out whether Felix or Justin Verlander was the better pitcher. The arguments about Mike Trout vs Miguel Cabrera have absolutely zero value, not as it pertains to the attempt to win a pennant.
Ergo, if you want to argue over the 2013 Felix vs the 2013 Chris Sale? This is strictly a pastime; whose 2013 stats are a shade the better, a shade the worse, matters not one whit to SSI. A Hall of Fame pitcher is a Hall of Fame pitcher. You better worry about your other 24 roster slots.
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2007-13
Now, what IS interesting, is this question: "Can you count on CC Sabathia for a Hall of Fame season in 2014? Who is giving you a Cy Young season not in 2013, but in each season?" There are four of those guys right now. Can you name them?
Since 2007, when Felix turned 21, there have been five (5) starting pitchers who have been head-and-shoulders above the pack in Wins Above Replacement (WAR):
| Pitcher | 2007-13 WAR |
| Verlander | 39 |
| Sabathia | 38 |
| Halladay | 36 |
| Lee | 35 |
| Felix | 35 |
| ... | |
| Greinke | 31 |
| Haren | 29 |
| Lincecum | 28 |
| Jered | 27 |
| Kershaw | 27 |
| Hamels | 27 |
| Lester | 26 |
| Wainright | 26 |
| ... | |
| Three guys | 24 (Cain, Beckett, Shields) |
| .... | |
| Everybody else | 21 or less |
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Exec Sum
Of that top five there ... Roy Halladay is done as a great pitcher. Maybe he'll bounce back for a year or two. Doesn't matter. He had his run and you're not trading Justin Verlander for him and a sweetener, now are you?
CC Sabathia is having a terrible season, velocity wayyyyy down and racked by terminal inflammation of the gopheritis (1.4!). BaseballHQ's preseason warning was: "Durability: PRO may turn into a CON" from here out. It's a little unfair, since this could be one blip season, but ... fair or not, SSI is demoting him from the top 5. With gust-O, amig-O.
Cliff Lee is legit, of course, and if he's slowing down it's not so's I can see it. Justin Verlander has hit some amusing hiccups in 2013 but ... SSI classifies those squarely under the "Pitchers Will Be Pitchers" file. Felix, Lee, and Verlander are the co-Cy Young winners of the past seven years.
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Joining the Elite
In that next group.... Lincecum and Haren have nice 7-year totals, but they're no longer the same pitchers, of course.
Weaver, Hamels, and Lester have totals that are impressive by any other standards. By Felix' standards, they're feeb.
There are two pitchers in the discussion with Felix, Verlander, and Lee. Clayton Kershaw has a lower 2007-13 WAR for only one reason, and we're betting you can guess what that reason is. He has run only 3 seasons at HOF level, but ... SSI is cheerfully promoting him to the Big Four. If you want to know why, just ax - it'd be a free URL for Dr. D's (or Gordon's) quota.
Zack Greinke seems to be the only case that's a little challenging to decide. He's got a few little warts to him ... the last time he was in the AL, 2010, he ran an ERA over 4. His strikeouts are down in the 7's this year. He's only hit 5.0 WAR one time. He is an Opening Day starter, but would you trade Justin Verlander to get him and a #1 draft pick? I dunno. I don't think I would.
But if you want to argue that Greinke and Sabathia add up to compose a Top Six, I won't complain.
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Said All That to Say This
1. Who wins the Cy this year... well, send me a memo. But? Felix, Verlander, Cliff Lee, and Clayton Kershaw. Right now they're the Hall of Fame pitchers in baseball.
2. It's odd that Cliff Lee is available. Well, it's not odd considering the sticker price, but that's another article...
Is probably the more Hall of Famer of the bunch, right now (which means over the last 4 years, this year included)
Felix's two worst ERA+ years in that span have been 109 & 123. Verlander's, 118 & 124. Lee's 119 & 113. Kershaw's 133 & 150!
This Year's AL Cy will reside in Detroit again, btw: Max Scherzer, he of the 17-1 record AND a .9 WHIP. Felix is The King. But Max will wear the crown.
Agree with almost every word, Doc.
But, in the end, while one can certainly identify the nominees in August, the CY award is almost always won (or lost) in September.
TODAY ... Kershaw is a lock in the NL. His 1.88 ERA is too far ahead of everyone, (as are his 182 IPs), and the Dodgers have turned around what could have been a 100-loss season into a magical playoff sprint. But Kershaw could still lose the award between now and then, if he happens to get lit up a couple of times AND one of the other guys (Harvey, Wainwrgith, Corbin) does something exceptional down the stretch.
In the AL, gotta agree with Moe that "right now" Scherzer would get the nod, because a 1-loss season is so off the charts it "feels" right to vote that way, even if the peripherals don't beat the competition.
But, again ... September matters. I personally don't expect Scherzer to stay on 1-loss. And if he finished 20-4, it's a completely different story. I think Darvish or Felix could win it in September. I can even see a lifetime achievement vote perhaps not giving Rivera the title - but pulling enough votes to make the CY race particularly confusing this year.
Twenty years ago, I think Colon would be in the running ... but total wins isn't the 800 pound gorilla it used to be, and his lack of Ks (which still carry massive CY voting weight) would take him out of the running even if not for the anti-PED backlash.
With a half dozen AL pitchers with ERAs under 2.90, ERA won't be the determining factor. If Scherzer ends with only the single loss ... yeah, it's his ... (but I don't see that happening). My thinking is if Scherzer stumbles, (which I think likely), it actually comes down to Darvish and Felix. Oddly enough, Seattle doesn't play Texas in September. BUT ... the Ms do visit Detroit for a 4-game set - Sept 16-19. That could end up being the "critical game" that Scherzer/Felix need to make their case. With Texas and Detroit preparing for playoffs, there may be end of season juggling of rotations that limit the CY candidates' innings in the final week of the season.
In any case, it should be an interesting September.
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One final note. I had to chuckle when Wainwright showed up at the bottom of your second tier, but you glossed over him in your take. For awhile now I have been of the opinion that Wainwright is probably the most underrated "star" pitcher in baseball. Not that he's in Felix' class. He's not. But, he's the guy with really impressive stats that is most likely to illicit a shrug. It took him a couple of years to "figure it out", (he *ONLY* ran 3.70 and 3.20 ERAs in his first two seasons starting). And last year, he just had awful results, despite pitching as well as ever. But, how many 150 ERA+ seasons do you have to post before anyone notices?
The fun stat for me? Go look at the ERA+ among active pitchers.
1) Rivera - 204
2) Kershaw - 144
3) Santana - 136
4) Halladay - 131
-- Wainwright - 131
5) Felix - 130
I think Wainwright is the new Oswalt, (who oddly enough is next on that list at 129). Superbly talented pitcher that is consistently #3 or #4 in the league without every getting into the discussion AT ALL about him potentially being #1.
Cy Young has the award named for him primarily for his 511 wins, not some sabermetric stats conceived decades after his death. He also only won just under 62% of his decisions, but he just had more than anyone else. Somehow Scherzer is winning almost all of his starts, and Det is 2-3 in his no decisions. His other stats are great, even if inferior to Felix. Yeah, Max benefits from Detroit's offense, but it's not like they will have four 20 game winners.