Add new comment

.

Phoenix Terry sez, in the Shout Box,

phxterry: M's Line-Up just posted for today against Rays' RHP Archer. M's OF is Morse, Ibanez, & Ackley, with Saunders sitting. Gotta love the decisions of the M's Field Leadership -- they sit our best-defensive OFer, who is also our hottest hitting OFer at the moment, who happens to bat left handed -- so that we can watch ice-cold, 41 year-old Rauuuul flail on defense and prove something, not quite sure what. This starting OF has to be the worst defensive OF playing today in all of the major leagues, but hey, the hot bats of Morse (OPS since ASB of.558) & Rauul (.453) make up for it. I recall GMZ stating that he didn't make deadline trades to keep winning games; but this line-up provides no evidence to back up his assertion. Go M's.34 min 19 sec ago - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/what-price-cliff-lee#comment-90703

.

Ready to have your mind blown?  Say ready.  "Ready!" ... ok.

Here is this morning's table of John Dewan Runs Saved, by defensive position:

.

The Ugly Truth

Ibanez and Morse have been getting beaten on fly balls over their heads, according to Dewan.  But then, you knew that.  Morse, it turns out, does have a real issue tracking balls he has to get back for.  He's probably not a legit right fielder.  In retrospect, you only want Morse playing defense if he's in LF and if the other two guys can run.  Maybe not then, either, but it's open for discussion.

Saunders, Ackley, and Chavez have been getting beaten, horribly, on balls (1) in front of them, (2) to the side of them, and (3) behind them.  All three have been 100% equal-opportunity butchers.  

Saunders' numbers have been gasp-inducing.  Score one thunderous body blow to Dr. D's (ex-)theory that anybody can play center in Safeco.  You've got to adjust to data.

Bay's numbers are passable, according to Dewan.  Apparently it's not impossible to play the outfield in Safeco, even for an older gentleman.  Although, interestingly, Franklin Gutierrez would be headed for a -20 runs season, prorated.  Somebody should rule out the possibility that the conditions are a major factor this year.

.

Talking Points Memo

Michael Morse, as it turns out, does have a real issue tracking balls he has to get back for, at least in RF.  He's probably not a legit right fielder.  In retrospect, you only want Morse playing defense if he's in LF and if the other two guys can run.

It's one thing to assume that Morse can't play the outfield.  It's a different thing to observe it.  Consider it SSI-observed.  For 2014, it's worth discussing his glove in LF, depending... this is a man who, if the stars align and the moon is in Aquarius, could hit 46 home runs and win you a pennant.

.........

Notice that the National League is farrrrrr ahead of the American League in defense.  I don't know whether that's important or not.  It certainly reflects a choice that AL GM's are making.

.........

No principle should be taken as an absolute.  That includes, "Defense is overrated."  The M's outfield defense passed the tipping point in 2014 -- and they wound up with a bunch of schlubs whose ERA was worse than it should have been.  

FIP stands for "Fielding Independent Pitching" and is an attempt to calculate what an ERA "should have been" with normal fielding.  xFIP then takes that, and adjusts for "lucky home runs":

.

Dr's R/X - 25 Players vs "A Ball Club"

But you know what's interesting here?  Felix Hernandez didn't suffer from his Seattle defense at all -- his ERA is lower than it should have been.  Hisashi Iwakuma's ERA is a lot lower than it should be with normal defense.  Joe Saunders' ERA is the same as his FIP ...

Saunders had a high ERA in the first couple months, and was "hurt by his defense," but then he started pitching well and was helped by his defense.  Huh!  His early/late splits parallel the results of Beavan/Harang, and then Felix/Iwakuma.

If you didn't know better, you'd say terrible pitchers made the M's outfield look bad, and great ones made the M's outfield look good.  Average ones made it look average.

..............

I'll tell yer this.  If you're going to play a shaky, bat-first outfield ... be careful who you put on the mound, brother.  Get you Felix, WBC-San, Lee, and Taijuan on a roll, and maybe you can play yer three Duke Sniders in the outfield.  But not with Brandon Maurer out there, man.

The oldtimers used to speak in terms of taking 25 talents and ---> making a ball club out of them.  This is one place where Pat Gillick has always had a hair-fine feel.  The Mariners' rosters, the last five years, have not shown a Pat Gillick synergy; they've had extreme defense, extreme offense, extreme youth, extreme whatever...

It is precisely here, in this barren wilderness, that the sabermetrician-turned-GM would have such a tough time.  One glance would have told Pat Gillick that you didn't want Blake Beavan on the mound with an outfield full of bats.

It ain't that I'm scoffing.  I didn't see the problem coming, either.  ;- )

.