Brad Miller - Level 201 Scan, continued
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Q. What does his defense look like, from the 3rd deck? Be brutally honest.
A. He looks like a 1970's shortstop to me.
I don't know why I think of 1970's shortstops as being Bud Harrelson and Tim Foli, those wiry-strong (white) guys who were respectable but not great. If you actually looked it up, maybe you'd find that there are more J.J. Hardys playing today than there were then.
By 1970's shortstop, I'm typecasting a man with unremarkable athleticism who is scrappy, smart, and competent... that's what Miller looks like STANDING there, that's what he looks like moving around, sort of.
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Q. Objectively speaking, what's the scouting report?
A. He's actually faster and quicker than the average AL shortstop. The arm is average or not quite - that's what we've seen, the last month. He's not going to cannon people down from the hole like Brendan Ryan, but he makes the throws.
The numbers all agree: he's a -10 runs defender, this year. That's like Asdrubal Cabrera, definitely a -10 guy, and Stephen Drew, a third left handed bat-first guy. It's pretty clear that, in 2013 and probably in 2014, Miller is going to be right around -10 runs defensively.
For two years, we got bat-first shortstop who does a decent (not problematic) job with the mitt. So sue him.
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Q. And you know how Zduriencik loves those guys.
A. Glad you asked that question .....
For a while, I thought that with (1) Jack Wilson, (2) Brendan Ryan, (3) remind me of who the other zero hit GREAT fielding SS's were ... that in Seattle we were Stuck on Stupid ...er ... Married to National League baseball ... er, ossified into one particular philosophy of baseball. SSI hates dogma, even when it doesn't result in 513 runs.
But here is Zduriencik, going into the land of bat-first infielding, With Gust-O amig-O. Gotta give it up for Capt Jack.
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Q. What is the nature of Miller's challenge in improving?
A. Ryan Divish, with a 6-3 assist from Brendan Ryan, catches the point with this absolutely sparkling article. Guys like Miller, they polish their footwork, and they get to balls just that tick sooner.
Stephen Drew was a -12 runs shortstop as a rookie, and -15 runs his second year. But his third year he was plus, and his fourth year he was +9.
He's offered as a typical example. You remember Derek Jeter ... well, you and I remember those two. Gordon remembers ten of them, and hopefully he'll list them for us...
Footwork can be a cliche. For Brad Miller, it is definitely on point - even on camera we can see the room for improvement. That will certainly be the issue with him going forward, and it's good news for a Mariner fan. Zduriencik often talks about infielders improving, and for Miller this area offers clear gains.
You can confidently expect Miller to move towards middle-of-the-pack soon, and he may emerge considerably better than that. I like his body control - which is also what Wilson and Ryan exploited to become great SS's.
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Q. He's at 114 OPS+ so far. What could that become?
A. We expect the 114 to dip only marginally, if at all, because of the "See Ball Hit Ball" wiring in his brain stem. He glowers, he cocks the bat, he looks at the pitch, he sinks his weight. He snaps the bat through and over. As with Seager, there aren't a lot of moving parts.
How good could he be? As with Seager, you wouldn't expect a 35-HR top end here -- there's no reason for the AVG to be .320, no reason for him to walk 90 times, no reason for him to slug .500. Tough for me personally to imagine a Ben Zobrist .380-.400 OBP in this specific case, but I guess he could.
But if he polishes everything, and gets to 130 OPS+ like Seager did, well.... Jose Reyes has only been over 119 once. Derek Jeter has generally stayed in the 120-125 range.
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It isn't about Brad Miller turning into a lefty Nomar Garciaparra or Hanley Ramirez. It's about the Seattle Mariners developing a 110-120 OPS+ shortstop that, as with Reyes' and Jeter's teams, gives them one whale of a deep batting order.
Cheers,
Dr D