M's 2014 Pitching Resources
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Q. Should we "project" the 2014 M's rotation to be roughly comparable to the one in 2013?
A. Shannon Drayer, bless her heart, floated the thought that the M's rotation could be -100 runs better next year. If I'd been her I might have rephrased that thought (if I'd offered it) to say that the M's pitching could be -100 runs better.
The response, in the blog-o-sphere, was that:
- Taijuan and K-Pax might do okay in 2014
- If so, this is bound to be better than the 'dreadful' Back of Rotation (BOR) in 2013
- BUT! Felix and WBC-san should be presumed to regress significantly
- So it largely offsets
- Look at all the rotations recently. None of them did 100 runs better than the M's 2013 rotation
- Therefore, if we're being really, really nice about it, -30 runs is where we would pin our hopes
- Make that -50, -60 runs for the staff as a whole. MAX
- Did we mention "MAX"
This seems reasonable enough, if we back up to 10,000 feet on it.
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Q. 10,000 feet?
A. Yeah. Let's say we back up to 30,000 feet...
| Team | Runs Coughed Up | Runs Better than M's |
| M's | 754 | ( 86 ERA+ ) |
| KC | 601 | -153 (!) |
| Det | 624 | -130 |
| Oak | 625 | -129 |
| Tex | 636 | -118 (this being in Texas) |
| Tampa | 646 | -108 |
| Bos | 662 | -92 (this being in Fenway) |
| AL AVG | 696 | -58 |
When you "project" an absolute best case for the M's, of 50-60 runs improvement, you are capping their 2014 performance at "MEDIOCRE."
Actually, a league-average ERA is below average in Safeco. You're saying that is the best case scenario, that if absolutely everything breaks right, maybe you've got a hope to be lousy.
HEH :- )
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Q. Should you think in terms of being tied to 2013 performance, and setting a delta from there?
A. Why would you? All the pitchers are going to be different, other than the two Cy Young guys.
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Q. If you were Zduriencik's boss, what would you set as the Corporate Goal for 2014 pitching success?
A. Here's where we get into very important semantics. You, and I, as bloggers, talk about "hopes" and "projections" and "expectations" and "upside and downside."
But in the steering committees, they ask the managers to come in with GOALS and those goals had better reflect the fact that you think you are good at your job! You don't get to go in as chairman of Boeing Commercial and say, "we hope to sell 10 planes next year." LOL.
We gave you a job, we gave you $500K a year, and we expect you to do things a worker bee couldn't do.
We'll see you next year. You better hope you've hit your goals when we put the chart back on the wall.
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Q. Again, what would you EXPECT, as a GOAL, from an EXPERT who had the M's resources?
A. Their resources being this:
| Pos | 2013 Employee | Remark | 2014 Employee | |
| SP1 | ROGER CLEMENS | Is improving | ROGER CLEMENS | |
| SP2 | BRET SABERHAGEN | Well, you know | BRET SABERHAGEN | |
| SP3 | Schlub | 5.26 ERA | PRICEY FREE AGENT | |
| SP4 | Schlub | 5.76 ERA | Best SP prospect in baseball | |
| SP5 | Schlub | 6.30 ERA | James Paxton | |
| SP6 | Erasmo | Erasmo, more experienced |
If you succeeded in replacing SP3, SP4, and SP5 with even 100 ERA+ pitchers, you would position yourself to have one of the three best pitching staffs in the league:
- 130 ERA+
- 130
- 100
- 100
- 100
Oakland, last year, had an ace (Colon) and four 90-100 starters.
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Q. But what are the odds that Taijuan will pull a Pineda?
A. I'd say 70%. How about you?
But. We are not talking about his being Michael Pineda, in order for the M's pitching staff to be better than "mediocre." He merely has to be okay.
Hey. I'm Zduriencik's boss, I've given him nice bucks for a free agent pitcher, I "project" er, EXPECT him to go get me a good pitcher.
And I'm not asking him to roll with Anthony Vazquez here. He's got two sparkling blue-chippers to lock and load.
Absolutely. Zduriencik goes into that board room to sell his pitching plan for 2014, he needs to set VERY HIGH minimum standards for himself. (If this were an Emirates sales plan, rather than a sub-process we were talking about.)
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Q. By the way, how much do you figure Felix and Iwakuma to regress?
A. How much do you expect David Price to regress? Clayton Kershaw? Cliff Lee?
Here is Felix' Runs Above Replacement, last five years:
| Season | RAR |
| 2009 | 61 |
| 2010 | 51 |
| 2011 | 44 |
| 2012 | 54 |
| 2013 | 53 |
| AVG | 52 |
Eeeyup. Pencil him in for being one run worse, on average. ... Wait: he's a better pitcher now than he was in 2010, right? Oh yeah.
Iwakuma was 39 runs better than replacement. :: shrug :: That's pretty midrange for an All-Star starter. Do you buy in to Iwakuma's skill level? Then what's the big deal about 4 wins from him?
Here's where Dr. D wheels out his "true but not accurate" catch-phrase. Yeah, your two Cy Young guys are susceptible to having off years. Felix could blow out a shoulder, as could Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. In the scheme of things, I wouldn't say that sets anybody up for any excuses in 2014.
We've given you two legit aces, Lincoln sez. Now find the guys to go with them and give us a nice pitching staff! :: shrug ::
Are analysts thinkin' that, if they were in the GM's chair right now, they would get away with a -50 runs improvement for 2014? They thinkin' wrong, pardner.
Ms. Drayer's "100 runs in the rotation" analysis might not have been quite true, but it was certainly very accurate.
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Q. Wouldn't a corporate boardroom speak in terms of delta from the last year?
A. Sometimes it would. Sometimes it wouldn't. McDonald's has an ossified franchise system and it's not going to double its franchises from 2013. There is a business system that is well-and-truly tied to what it did last year.
Other business systems get overhauled. The PowerPoint slides from last year are junked. You start from scratch.
Pitching staffs are not global McDonald's infrastructures. They are not like McDonald's infrastructures. You can, um, change pitchers. You can change most of your pitchers. You can change the ones you want to, and you can keep the ones you want to, such as Christy Mathewson or Felix Hernandez.
Kansas City gave up 746 runs in 2012. Last year, they gave up 601. Happens all the time. Well, happens sometimes.
If I'm Zduriencik's boss, his job is riding on showing that he can do the same.
Lucky for him I ain't,
Dr D