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In the Shout Box, we've all gone from "wry smiles" to "playing with the Robinson Cano batting orders." HEH!!
.....
In this 2011 article, right after Matt Kemp signed an 8-year contract, Bill James answers a question "How likely is it that Matt Kemp will be an All-Star player in his 8th year?"
James answered it by creating a pool of player comps. His first cut created 956, and he cut that to 472 by reducing the RC/27 range to 6-11 runs. He spiralled in to 370, then to 170 players .... he whittled away, using judgment and intuition to create the comp pool, until he had 43 players he thought were good comps for Matt Kemp, 2011.
(For once, I'm not going to wax ecstatic about his methodology ... it's a reasonable approach, but not notably superior, probably, to just taking b-ref.com's comps.)
In the first year of the "contract," 34 of the 43 players had seasons worth $20M ... "you wouldn't feel ripped off if you paid $20M for it." Here is how the percentages broke down:
| Year of contract |
% Star Performance |
Remark |
| 1 |
80 |
|
| 2 |
72 |
Includes Winfield, Brett, Joe Gordon |
| 3 |
74 |
Ruben Sierra |
| 4 |
70 |
|
| 5 |
60 |
FAILING to meet standard: Brett, Yastrzemski, Duke Snider |
| 6 |
63 |
|
| 7 |
42 |
|
| 8 |
42 |
|
Bill then adds those % numbers, and remarks that "the Dodgers can expect Kemp to have 5.05 successful ($20M plus) seasons over the life of the contract."
34% of Kemp's comparables had $20M seasons even in the 9th years following.
.
No Guarantees, Dept.
Acting like a big-city team, that is something totally new to Seattle fans, so they're probably thinking "Ummm, what? You mean there's a chance that we'd regret Cano's contract?"
Yes, there's a chance, a good chance. Anything you do can get you killed, including (especially) laying in bed and drawing the curtains.
But myself, I'm kind of surprised by the fact that HALF of these players are still big stars EIGHT years out. You're paying for the first five seasons; the next five seasons are deferred payments on 2014-19.
Here is that Fangraphs post, amusingly enough even attached to Cano's player page, that says "If you don't like 9/225, think of it as 5/175. With four really cheap years at the end, and deferred money."
.........
From a Stars & Scrubs standpoint, you spend $40 roto for Mike Trout, usually the worst thing that happens is that he gives you back $20-25. But for some reason, people would rather spend $20 and get zero. :: shrug :: In roto, I've always felt like you get a superduperstars, if he has a down year, you still have a good player.
And ANY hitting star is very comfortable to purchase, as opposed to a pitching star. Up to and including Felix Hernandez. I'd be a lot less worried about a catastrophe with Cano, than I would be about a catastrophe with Felix.
.........
Personally, I'd hit Cano in the 3 hole. My boyhood team, the Big Red Machine, had a second baseman hitting third, and that just set them up for history's most beautiful baseball team. Also one of Cano's best comps, George Brett, is the prototype 3 hitter.
Would like to be able to debate it. :- )
BABVA,
Dr D