K-Pax: Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.
.
Q. What, in Dr. D's view, determines the fate of K-Pax in 2014?
A. The first question was whether they'd let him pitch. That seems to be all but resolved. Thursday, April 3 at Oakland, Happy K-Pax Day.
The Mariners brass, they'll make all the obligatory noises about his needing to earn it -- while at the same time smiling slyly and turning down an easy Chris Capuano signing. Also, the people around the Mariners periphery are tipping us off, speaking of Paxton and Taijuan (in that order) as incumbents.
...
The only other questions: injury (no issue), and whether Paxton's mechanics come completely unglued. :: shrug :: There are a lot of MLB veteran starters who have as good a chance of losing their jobs this spring, as Paxton does.
The fate of K-Pax is already resolved. He's going to land on the league with an epic splash (80%) or battle his mechanics too much (20%). Pretty simple, from where we sit.
.
Q. How much did his 2013 run affect the situation?
A. On the 710 ESPN Hot Stove League broadcast this week, Dave Valle coughed up the dugout's-eye view of things.
- Paxton came up and put on the big league uniform
- He faced four teams "that were in the hunt" (Valle's words)
- Paxton showed no inferiority complex at all, coming right after hitters
- He pitched inside, establishing a persona of "it's my plate, gumby, get off it"
- His offspeed weapons looked repeatable to the hitters
- Let's remember, Paxton isn't a young man, not by any stretch
Valle flatly said, "He's ready." You know, with a smile you could hear over the radio. Paxton doesn't "present" as a kid who hasn't shaved yet. He rolls out there like Whitey Ford, stubble on his chin, buzzes the batter inside at 94 MPH ... next question. That being, "Is Taijuan ready?" Evidently, that's the question in the Mariners' minds. As it has been on mine.
.
Q. They interviewed Paxton on that show. Did Paxton's own remarks cross-reference that?
A. Valle asked Paxton, "So why are you ready for the majors?"
Paxton, heavy sigh, y'know ... I've put in a lot of time in the minors. I've learned a lot. Paid my dues. It's time to go.
.
Q. So just how high does SSI rank him on the "makeup" index?
A. The control issues have been mechanical; they haven't had to do with his being afraid of hitters. I don't know that James Paxton is Randy Johnson Sinister or anything like that, but he's got plenty 'nuff makeup.
An interesting thing from Paxton, he said there's just one big key for him against [scary] big league hitters. You gotta get ahead in the count. "Otherwise they lock in one pitch and unload," he drawled. Just so. When you're up against great opponents, any sport, just Keep Your Fingers Out of the Dog's Mouth. Don't let him shoot from his favorite spot, that's all. You can't let 'em do, what they do. :: shrug ::
It's a cliche, but to me, he seems to have GROK'KED the idea that some pitchers never do --- > The Pitcher Holds the Ball. He attacks, or is attacked.
You saw him take on the playoff teams in 2013. He simply attacked them, and he saw for himself that he can do it. In that situation, even if you fail the next time, your mentality is "I have to get back to doing it right."
.
Q. Everybody wants to throw strikes.
A. Yes, but some guys prioritize it. Throwing more strikes means throwing more fastballs. Zunino called for over 70% fastballs; there is a cost associated. But it kept Paxton ahead in the count, and it underlined Paxton's stuff (rather than his control) as a key factor in the hitter-pitcher battle.
.
Q. How many bad starts will he have in 2014?
A. He holds up for 30 starts? Eight or ten of them will be ugly. We don't expect James Paxton to be Ervin Santana, a guy who racks up 22 quality starts but none of them lockdowns. Paxton will fire a shutout one game, give up 4 or 5 earnies the next. That's a rookie flamethrower.
Justin Verlander got KO'ed six times last year, and Verlander is the ultimate major league starting pitcher. People WILL panic when they SEE Paxton KO'ed, but you won't. You read SSI.
Gio Gonzalez got KO'ed, and I mean showers before the 4th inning, in 6 of his first 12 career starts. Can you imagine the Seattle blog-o-sphere if that happened to Paxton? Even in 2011, his last year in the American League before the big contract, Gio had 12 lousy starts during the season.
The year starts, Paxton gets destroyed by the A's in game four, you'll see all sorts of blog posts that bury Paxton, much less if it happens in 6 of his first 12 starts. But it's the nature of the beast, and as long as Paxton is throwing the ball OK they probably won't panic.
........
When he's got it working, James will embarrass people. Other times, he'll scuffle. Do NOT let pesky rodent bloggers tell you that is a "push." It won't be. It will be a young star, emerging as a force in the league.
.
Q. What was that you said about his velocity?
A. Hardest-throwing lefthander in the game is ... er, was ... Derek Holland. He averaged 93.6 MPH last year. That was the HOTTEST lefty fastball there IS. David Price, a tick below Holland.
Paxton's velocity last year, 94.9 average. Downhill plane. Very confusing to differentiate against his breaking ball. If he threw 90 he'd be super tough.
Here are 10 strikeouts in one game, based on "Here it is, Hit it." Watch the hitters! They can't see the ball. Watch the tape a few times; it's like they're wearing blindfolds.
Randy Johnson used to get strikeouts like this, where the hitters couldn't even track the ball into the hitting zone.
.
Q. What's the UP scenario for him?
A. He throws the curve ball for strikes, a lot of the time. He adds in the stukka slider at RH's back feet, he gets 9-10 strikeouts with 55% ground balls and is one of the 10 best pitchers in the league.
Sounds farfetched to M's fans, maybe, but only because we haven't had our share of Pineda's and Felix's. But there are Jered Weavers, Francisco Lirianos, Roy Oswalts, and Stephen Strasburgs who hit the ground running and star as rookies.
Paxton has hit the ground running. Let's hope he doesn't break stride.
Be Afraid,
Dr D