K-Pax: Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.
James Paxton Interview on 710 ESPN

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Q.  What, in Dr. D's view, determines the fate of K-Pax in 2014?

A.  The first question was whether they'd let him pitch.  That seems to be all but resolved.  Thursday, April 3 at Oakland, Happy K-Pax Day.

The Mariners brass, they'll make all the obligatory noises about his needing to earn it -- while at the same time smiling slyly and turning down an easy Chris Capuano signing.  Also, the people around the Mariners periphery are tipping us off, speaking of Paxton and Taijuan (in that order) as incumbents.

...

The only other questions:  injury (no issue), and whether Paxton's mechanics come completely unglued.  :: shrug :: There are a lot of MLB veteran starters who have as good a chance of losing their jobs this spring, as Paxton does.

The fate of K-Pax is already resolved.  He's going to land on the league with an epic splash (80%) or battle his mechanics too much (20%).  Pretty simple, from where we sit.

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Q.  How much did his 2013 run affect the situation?

A.  On the 710 ESPN Hot Stove League broadcast this week, Dave Valle coughed up the dugout's-eye view of things.

  • Paxton came up and put on the big league uniform
  • He faced four teams "that were in the hunt" (Valle's words)
  • Paxton showed no inferiority complex at all, coming right after hitters
  • He pitched inside, establishing a persona of "it's my plate, gumby, get off it"
  • His offspeed weapons looked repeatable to the hitters
  • Let's remember, Paxton isn't a young man, not by any stretch

Valle flatly said, "He's ready."  You know, with a smile you could hear over the radio.  Paxton doesn't "present" as a kid who hasn't shaved yet.  He rolls out there like Whitey Ford, stubble on his chin, buzzes the batter inside at 94 MPH ... next question.  That being, "Is Taijuan ready?"  Evidently, that's the question in the Mariners' minds.  As it has been on mine.

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Q.  They interviewed Paxton on that show.  Did Paxton's own remarks cross-reference that?

A.  Valle asked Paxton, "So why are you ready for the majors?"

Paxton, heavy sigh, y'know ... I've put in a lot of time in the minors.  I've learned a lot.  Paid my dues.  It's time to go.

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Q.  So just how high does SSI rank him on the "makeup" index?

A.  The control issues have been mechanical; they haven't had to do with his being afraid of hitters.  I don't know that James Paxton is Randy Johnson Sinister or anything like that, but he's got plenty 'nuff makeup.

An interesting thing from Paxton, he said there's just one big key for him against [scary] big league hitters.  You gotta get ahead in the count.  "Otherwise they lock in one pitch and unload," he drawled.  Just so.  When you're up against great opponents, any sport, just Keep Your Fingers Out of the Dog's Mouth.  Don't let him shoot from his favorite spot, that's all.  You can't let 'em do, what they do.  :: shrug ::

It's a cliche, but to me, he seems to have GROK'KED the idea that some pitchers never do --- > The Pitcher Holds the Ball.  He attacks, or is attacked.  

You saw him take on the playoff teams in 2013.  He simply attacked them, and he saw for himself that he can do it.  In that situation, even if you fail the next time, your mentality is "I have to get back to doing it right."

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Q.  Everybody wants to throw strikes.

A.  Yes, but some guys prioritize it.  Throwing more strikes means throwing more fastballs.  Zunino called for over 70% fastballs; there is a cost associated.  But it kept Paxton ahead in the count, and it underlined Paxton's stuff (rather than his control) as a key factor in the hitter-pitcher battle.

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Q.  How many bad starts will he have in 2014?

A.  He holds up for 30 starts?  Eight or ten of them will be ugly.  We don't expect James Paxton to be Ervin Santana, a guy who racks up 22 quality starts but none of them lockdowns.  Paxton will fire a shutout one game, give up 4 or 5 earnies the next.  That's a rookie flamethrower.

Justin Verlander got KO'ed six times last year, and Verlander is the ultimate major league starting pitcher.  People WILL panic when they SEE Paxton KO'ed, but you won't.  You read SSI.

Gio Gonzalez got KO'ed, and I mean showers before the 4th inning, in 6 of his first 12 career starts.  Can you imagine the Seattle blog-o-sphere if that happened to Paxton?  Even in 2011, his last year in the American League before the big contract, Gio had 12 lousy starts during the season.

The year starts, Paxton gets destroyed by the A's in game four, you'll see all sorts of blog posts that bury Paxton, much less if it happens in 6 of his first 12 starts.  But it's the nature of the beast, and as long as Paxton is throwing the ball OK they probably won't panic.

........

When he's got it working, James will embarrass people.  Other times, he'll scuffle.  Do NOT let pesky rodent bloggers tell you that is a "push."  It won't be.  It will be a young star, emerging as a force in the league.

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Q.  What was that you said about his velocity?

A.  Hardest-throwing lefthander in the game is ... er, was ... Derek Holland.  He averaged 93.6 MPH last year.  That was the HOTTEST lefty fastball there IS.  David Price, a tick below Holland.

Paxton's velocity last year, 94.9 average.  Downhill plane.  Very confusing to differentiate against his breaking ball.  If he threw 90 he'd be super tough.

Here are 10 strikeouts in one game, based on "Here it is, Hit it."  Watch the hitters!  They can't see the ball.  Watch the tape a few times; it's like they're wearing blindfolds. 

 Randy Johnson used to get strikeouts like this, where the hitters couldn't even track the ball into the hitting zone.

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Q.  What's the UP scenario for him?

A.  He throws the curve ball for strikes, a lot of the time.  He adds in the stukka slider at RH's back feet, he gets 9-10 strikeouts with 55% ground balls and is one of the 10 best pitchers in the league.

Sounds farfetched to M's fans, maybe, but only because we haven't had our share of Pineda's and Felix's.  But there are Jered Weavers, Francisco Lirianos, Roy Oswalts, and Stephen Strasburgs who hit the ground running and star as rookies.

Paxton has hit the ground running.  Let's hope he doesn't break stride.

Be Afraid,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

I watched that game but I had forgotten how "whiffy" batters were against him. His yakker had them completely bamboozled and the high heater at 98 is, well, Koufax-like. He'll do! As you pointed out, if his #3, slider or change, is at all reliable and Zunino puts one finger down 2/3 of the time, he one of the league's best. Doc, I think you pointed out, a while back, that even as a classic two pitch guy he will get guys out.
Fangraphs has him throwing a cutter less than 4% of the time last year. I'm sure that's his slider, which he threw far less than his changeup.
I love his quote, as simple as it seems, about not letting them lock in. He has the fastball to throw it 80% of the time on first pitches. Even when they start the bat, they are still chasing something pretty darn special.
moe

2

I figured we still would.  I was trying to figure out what return we could get on him that would satisfy me.  Some Toronto bats maybe.  A package for Stanton. Something.
But the Ms look like they figured out that even this stage of K-Pax is pretty deadly, and that as soon as we get to NEXT stage, we'll be thrilled. Kershaw-lite is an incredible pitcher, and Paxton has in no way topped out at "lite."  Just gotta stay healthy (plant your leg right, boy!).
He's got incredible potential and seems emotionally and energetically ready for the challenge of full-time big-leaguer. He throws 97 like he's rolling off the couch and reaching for a beer in the fridge. His curve is similarly effortless.  Bobby Madritsch used to put so much torque on his body he dislocated his shoulder - twice - just getting the ball from his hand to home plate. Pax is a 97 mph dart thrower.
You know who used to throw a FB and curve this easily? Aaron Sele.  But he slow-balled it up there with the nice slow hook and the 89 mph cheese.  Paxton is the lefty Hulk version of that, I guess.
"But his motion shows the ball too early!" Really?  Did it look too early to the Royals in that video?
"But he walks too many guys!" Yeah... partly because minor league umps can't call the lower part of the zone reliably.  Curveball pitchers are constantly refining that part until they get a reliable zone and a perfect feel. As I've said before, it took Kershaw 3 years to get his release point right in the bigs - but he was still a good pitcher and a winner before that stage of the rocket blasted off. He was a 5 WAR pitcher while walking almost 5 dudes a game, because he was unhittable.  Then he figured out how to get his walks down, was STILL unhittable, and became a Cy Young monster. 
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Paxton got hit this year in AAA, for the first time ever.  He was impossible to put a bat on in the bigs.  As Doc says, he'll have blowup games, and dominating games. What Paxton was trying to do in the minors this year was go deeper into games.  He was getting a feel for letting hitters get themselves out.
Before July 1st:
games pitched into the 7th: one (6.1 IP)
games pitched TO the 7th: five of sixteen starts.
After July 1st:
games pitched into the 7th: seven (a complete game, 8 IP, couple of sevens...)
games pitched TO the 7th: ten of fourteen starts.
That was one of the last hurdles to getting him into the rotation: he had to be able to give you more than 5 IP every start. End-of-career Bedard puts some strain on your long man for sure. If Paxton can get us to the 7th in two out of three starts, he'll be a monster this year.
I'm really looking forward to deploying him.  Don't sweat the rocky starts if he's still throwing like a hoss.  Paxton doesn't have a head problem like Noesi, or a misunderstanding of his stuff like Maurer. Paxton's issues will be with consistently deploying HIS game, not in hoping that it's enough to beat others at THEIRS.
~G

3
tjm's picture

I don't at all understand why our young studs are considered huge risks when other teams - the A's, the Angels this year - don't seem to mind at all. Does anyone really think Taijuan and Pax are not as good as Santiago and Skaggs who are apparently locked in to the rotation for the Angels. Sonny Gray is being written about as a staff ace. If Paxson was with Oakland he'd be seen as an all star candidate. And I'd have no hesitation putting Erasmo in the rotation as well.

4

TJM:  Why did you have to bring up the name of that villainous little orc on such a nice and hopeful day?  Oakland shows, with Sonny Gray that they have no respect for any sort of child labor laws, by continuing to employ Gray even though he isn't old enough to drink alcohol in Holland.  If the league is going to continue to allow twelve year olds to pitch, we are going to have to deal with him and his curveball.

Truth is stranger than fiction.  
That said, point is well taken, that no one bats an eye when Oakland trots out a bunch of rookies and pronounces that Cy Young has indeed been cloned.  Check Sonny Gray's stats.  He only has 64 innings pitched, and because of a 2.67 ERA he is announced as the staff ace.  After watching the kid I can't argue with the assessment.  With that caveat, Gray only has twice as many innings as Pax, but Paxton is considered a dark horse, and doesn't even appear on many left handed pitching prospect charts despite having nearly half the ERA of Gray, and despite pitching against a slew of monster teams.  
Part of this is Oakland's long history of producing successful pitching prospects has proceeded them so that every guy the Orcs roll out is presumed to be the next Gio Gonzales.  The Mariners, who don't have the same history, have to have their guys earn the benefit of the doubt. 

5

Another problem is the fact that he's "effectively wild" in the zone.
You gamble the whole at-bat, to try to time a 1st-pitch fastball, and start the bat, but then the ball's maybe high-away or maybe in or maybe not even a strike ... makes the "payoff" much lower on that gamble.  One thing to guess right on a Jamie Moyer first pitch fastball; another thing to guess right on a Randy Johnson 1991 fastball.  :- )

6

In the ORGANIZATION's mind that factor is critical, no doubt.
Too much "five and dive" is a legit problem, even out of your #5 starter, I guess, but ML orgs loathe it with a passion wayyy out of proportion to the actual problems it causes.  In their minds, you give us too many 5IP starts, you can't be in the rotation.  (This despite the fact that they have 8 relievers vs 5 starters.)
Lou Piniella was terrible this way.
Agree, G ... when Paxton had a run of longer starts, that was probably key to him getting his Sept.   Your post is a great read all the way, as always.

7

/cosign all that, Mojo Esq., and ...
You also have the unique situation that, in Seattle, every blogger earns his respect and prestige by being less "homeristic" than the guy who blogged the day before.  If you're down on a local hotshot, you're obviously emotionally unattached, and therefore obviously an elite analyst.
The influence of Zumsteg and Cameron, even ten years on, resounds across the blog-o-sphere and into the mainstream media.  Smart = cynical.  Seattle is the only city in MLB in such an advanced state of cynic's disease.
It doesn't occur to many people that TRUE emotional detachment would see the good and the bad with equally neutral eyes.  In other words, roll your eyes at Antony Vasquez all you want, but don't bring that into the paint on Michael Pineda.
You can't get high on James Paxton, you ought not follow baseball, brudda.

8

His second year? 5.2 IP per.
His third? 6.1.
From his 4th season on? 7 IP/start. It's okay to start out at 5 IP per for a curveballing youngster with a power arm.  You just don't want to stay there forever. I agree, sometimes orgs freak out about it, but with Felix and Kuma throwing deep into games (theoretically) there are bullpenners available to back up the youngsters. Just let Pax throw - he might surprise you.
~G
 

9

I'm having a whale of a time, coming up with a reason that Paxton can't aspire to pitch as well as Clayton Kershaw can.
I guess there's the time arc; Kershaw was ready a lot earlier, and that's part of the talent equation.  But in terms of weapons?  It's apples-to-apples, and Paxton's weapons look if anything a little better than Kershaw's.

10

And read has me thinking elite until he proves me wrong. Already got his signature from fanfest. Scuffles are obviously to be expected.
The 2 things I've held on to are the minor delivery tweak that was reported shortly before callup and that every time he's been asked about the difference he's said that he's just more focused under the big lights. A plateau leap that's merely mental and based on location? We often hear about change of scenery, that's pretty much what Paxton is pointing to for his mlb success so far exceeding expectations.
I've never been so excited so quickly about any prospect as when I first saw him in his mlb debut. Nastiest looking arsenal upon debut I can recall seeing.
Another thing I keep hearing about is he just doesn't fatigue. His velocity has remained through the final pitch and to hear him, scouts and coaches talk it sounds like it's for real from their perspectives too.
That's an insane combination from where I sit. Last guy I'd trade, but maybe I'm wrong to think that.

12

Though your words are better. That's exactly how I feel. Sometimes it's like reading Spock. "Optimism, for the Mariners? That's illogical, Captain." Emotional investment in a team is something that should be full range. If the emotions for me were all negative I'd find a different team or sport.

13
M's Watcher's picture

It is appropriate to be optimistic on Pax (Walker, and others) for 2014, but not so much so that your season depends on every one of them. Maybe Pax gets you an average of 5 IP per start, but only low double digit wins. He's not a reason to avoid acquiring a TOR SP that should give you 15 wins and much improved chances for playoffs.

14
tjm's picture

LA Clipper fans will get the reference to the Clips announcing duo of Ralph Lawler - maybe as good as Neihaus - chiding his younger partner, Mike Smith. That said, you're right, but settle down, anyhow. It's unseemly, man! Methinks you ought be satisfied with being right. It's why I'm here reading all day every day. And if you're as right about Paxton as you were about Pineda, then let's break out the Lena Blackburn mud and rub the shine off your face.
I'm pretty sure that by now no one knows what I'm talking about, so I'll stop.

15

To be fair, there are plenty of folks in this little corner of the blogosphere that have aggressively overhyped Seattle's prospects. If even 1/4 of the sure thing prospects we've seen had actually made it, the org wouldn't be in the shape it's in. I honestly don't know how to assess a minor league guy's prospects to have an MLB career and I suspect that most of us don't, really. So I'm firmly double parked in the "show me" space when it comes to Mariner minor leaguers.

16

I am consistently impressed by people who know so much about prospects and show great skill in estimating their potential. But there's no doubt that your "1/4" comment is correct. With the sole exception of Seager we've had a steady stream of position prospects with upside that for all intents and purposes none of them have so far reached. And this goes all the way back to A-Rod, who was the last to truly reach his potential. One thing I like here is the tendency to clearly distinguish realistic percentages of prospects reaching their upside, their middle projection, or their downside. The M's, however, have such a sorry track record in position player development that even those modest percentages end up looking wildly optimistic. We continue to hope that the worm is about to turn. But show me.

17

LOL Terry.  We remember you kidding us about "having way too much fun" with Pineda's tornado-like rip through the AL in April and May of that year.  I loooov eeet...
This situation is tougher:
There's no USSM article to mosh off, declaring Paxton unfit for ML consumption
Pineda had zero issues in executing his pitches; Paxton has some chance (25%?) of not being able to execute
But, that said, SSI does plan on wallowing in Paxton's glory, yes.  Every 8K lockdown will probably be worth a postgame article or six.
Or not,
Jeff

18

There are plenty of folks in other little corners of the blogosphere who saw:
Ackley as an actual 1-2 overall pick, the best college bat in 5 years,
Justin Smoak as a guy on the COVER of Baseball Prospectus, and
Jesus Montero as the best bat in the minors, per Jack Zduriencik "the next Albert Pujols"
It would be one thing if we were "overhyping" Abraham Almonte, Grizz.  SSI has been, if anything, relatively guarded, compared to the INDUSTRY hype on THOSE three players.
I agree with you.  Let's be fair.  :- /  

19

Without a doubt, the (1) development of, or (2) selection of --- > blue chip prospects has gone terribly with respect to bats under Zduriencik.
I don't know that this applies to pitchers.  Does it?  
And if it does not, then why does the Ackley-Smoak-Montero grime stick to Walker and Paxton?  Aren't we saying that since the dice rolled 7's the last three times, they have to roll them again?

20

Not at all. I reacted positively to Griz' "1/4" comment without paying attention to the fact that it came under an article about Paxton/Walker. With respect to grime, it's only the position player development people/process that need a generous application of Mr. Clean mixed with Scrubbing Bubbles and a cup of Pine Sol. And indeed, as you suggest, it's not as if the failures didn't have a generally recognized prospect pedigree.

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