M's 7, stRangers 1
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PROPS to the M's 7-and-5 start. Granted, Oakland proved to everyone's satisfaction that we are not yet the Pride of MLB(TM). The Mariners are good, or at least they have been. Oakland, by contrast, is championship-worth. Or at least they have been.
While the Seahawks ascended from (1) their four-win seasons and (2) the NFC Championshp, they hit some staircase landings along the way. Just possibly, the Seattle Mariners are not destined to advance from "91 losses" to "Seahawk dominant" in one month.
But if we're talking about April 2014 being a staircase landing:
- The Pythagorean record is 8-4
- This against Anaheim (5 games) Oakland (6 games) and the stRangers (1 game)
- This while using our 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 starting pitchers
Objectively speaking, if the M's finished April at .500 ... and then got back WBC-san, Taijuan and K-Pax, they'd be AL West contenders. In theory.
It tells you all you need to know, right now, that not a single one of yer would be okay with a .500 April. Think 'bout it.
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Props to Roenis Elias. Last year, Felix and WBC-san had to team with Aaron Harang, Joe Saunders, the teenage Brandon Maurer, and Jeremy Bonderman ... and those were the varsity starters.
Elias got 7 swings-and-misses off his fastball on Monday. The "effective wildness" reminds me of the young Randy Johnson. "If he doesn't know where the ball is going, how are we supposed to?," complained the hitters (and umpires) of the early 90's.
The component skills don't support a 2.16 ERA. But the funny thing is, Roenis Elias doesn't get phased by great hitters, and he doesn't get phased by being behind in the count. He never realizes when he's in danger, and so never pitches like he's in danger. The slashy fastball, and the cheeky slurveball, it ain't going to get him into the Cy Young race. But it certainly can get him a 100 ERA+, and you can add twenty points for novelty factor. First half, which is when we need him.
Yeah, it says here that it is Elias being "effectively wild" that prevents MLB(TM) hitters from anticipating him and planting the back leg on him.
He'll throw a curve ball inside to a righty, but not at a time when a curve ball makes any sense whatsoever. He'll throw a changeup high to a lefty, but it will occur when you expect him to be throwing a double play ball. Elias doesn't use MLB(TM) pitching principles; it's like he's throwing dice for pitch selection and then throwing them again for location. (Mike Marshall thought that pitchers should actually do this. We presume he meant, someplace other than on the mound.)
As to the Cuban thing...
You watch the kid stand inside the triple-deck stadiums and glare in at Albert Pujols, Shin-Soo Choo and the home plate umpire. You watch Jose Fernandez pitch, and Aroldis Chapman, and you think about El Duque's unreal postseason accomplishments, and you wonder... is that all you need if you want awesome pitching makeup? Could we send Erasmo on a life raft to the San Juans and back?
Nahhh... sort this list by recent year, and there aren't that many Cuban pitchers with Plus-Plus Makeup or 2+ ERA's. I think it's just Roenis, and that he should get the credit, not the sharks.
I mean, Doug Fister was never scared out there. James Paxton wasn't. I think the Cuban thing is overblown. Elias himself, though, he's quite a competitor.
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Slops to Erasmo Ramirez. At SSI, we've been musing about his makeup. Dr. D is waffling back to the Anti-Erasmo position ... in the spring, when it didn't matter, he had an easy 20 K's and 2 BB's. Then, once the pressure was on, he threw one good game, and then imploded again. After exactly three starts, he's got Mike Blowers moaning "He better get something figured out."
This is not a pitching motion that should ever need to figure out anything. The flesh is willing, but the spirit is weak.
I think Erasmo will have several 14-win seasons in the bigs. Right now, I'm not betting on 2014 being one of them. I'm warming to the idea of an Earl Weaver role, preferably in place of one Joe Bye-ml.
He has been well-and-truly beaten out of a job by both Roenis Elias and Chris Young.
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Props to Mike Zunino. He's only in the bigs because of his pitch calling and pitch framing. Most MLB catching stars were in the minors at his career-arc point.
He's also SLG'ing .590.
With an 0:13 EYE, the SLG will come down, but ... Zunino is hitting the homers in very repeatable ways, gentlemen. If he hits .219 with 22 homers, he's going to kick off a bunch of wins. The M's are 4-and-0 already when Zunino homers or triples.
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Slops to Brad Miller. A 1:18 EYE ratio? That's every inch as weak as Tanner Scheppers' 7.88 ERA.
He is wayyyyy too good a hitter for that. Last year, when he had not the slightest clue where he even was, his EYE was 24:52. Now we're into nano-scopically small EYE numbers?
He is swinging at nearly half of all pitches that are not strikes. Dial it down, there, Crazy Legs. The enemy pitchers are good. Give them a little credit.
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Props to the M's Outfield Defense. Last year it was comically inept, playing comically shallow. This year they've backed up, they've cut off the balls in the gaps ... and Almonte still comes in and cuts off line-drive singles.
Read it and weep: the M's have the #2 defense in the American League. This before they get their good pitching going.
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Slops to the Rangers, Marlins, and Astros. Against whom are our next twelve (12) games.
- The Rangers' Pythag is 5-8 ... Prince is hitting .1xx ... Beltre's out ... their OPS+ is 80-something
- The Marlins are currenly on an 8-game losing streak, having been blasted Monday by a score of 2-to-9
- The Astros' best player is Brett Oberholzer. As a team, they are batting .189 (no individual player can stay in a lineup hitting .189)
Two weeks from today, the M's should be 15-and-9, give or take a game. Seriously. They better be. And then they'll have their lock-down rotation lock-d and load-d.
Props to baseball and life its ownself,
Dr D