"Soft Skills, No Hit, 5 War Player"- Inverted
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Nelson Cruz went to the Baltimore Orioles for 1 year, $8M. He is an unrestricted free agent in four months.
Pull up Baseball-Reference on the Orioles -- the team the Mariners are chasing in the Wild Card -- and it shows you that Cruz is the Orioles' best player, by WAR. (He is not there for WAR; he is there to change the scoreboard.)
He has 15 homers in 45 games ... let me divide 162 by 3 here real quick ... and 43 RBI in those 45 games. (Cano and Seager lead our team with 28 RBI each; we feel very relieved to have Mike Zunino's 18 RBI, which pro-rate to about 70.)
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Needless to say, if Cruz hits 44 homers, drives in 137 runs, and the Orioles win the pennant, then ... the skeptics will still have been right about Nelson Cruz. It's about process. (And you know where to find The Right Process!)
Even if Cruz hit 200 homers from here to the end of the wire, they'd still have been right. This is, as you are only too well aware, a peeve of Dr. D's.
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Is it moot? Somebody's third cousin told Moe's sister to tell Grumpy's aunt that Adrian Beltre told Cruz not to play in Safeco.
But Cruz signed for 1/$8M. He'd have signed here for 2/$20M. I know that as much as you know Grumpy's aunt, at least.
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It's About Process
You realize, we trust, that:
(1) there is no single correct process for deciding which ballplayer to sign, how much to sign him for, whether to open another car wash or not to, whether to change careers or not to.
You do realize that Tony Blengino debates, with the rest of the team, what the right conclusion is, do you not? You realize that a high-level Boeing steering committee is there to argue?
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(2) At least not a "standardized" process, of course. There's a standardized process for approving drugs to hospitals. There isn't one for forecasting ballplayer performance. Bill James doesn't even try to forecast individual or team performance, not for the Red Sox.
Theo Epstein looks at 12 different pools of player comps on a Nelson Cruz. Which is right? None of them are. Which are the correct indicators for aging? None of them are.
A Carl's Jr. executive looks at 18 different factors when deciding whether to open one on Hilltop. Sure, there are 10 leading indicators. Do they work? Sometimes. Carl's Jr and McDonald's have higher success rates because their infrastructures make their decisions look good, not the other way around.
There are 30 GM's. You will NEVER hear ONE of them talking about the Reds' process being the correct one, and the Nationals' being the incorrect one. Why do you suppose that is? Because this isn't chess. The board isn't closed to 64 squares and you can't "solve" the problem like Tic-Tac-Toe.
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One part of MY process is that if Nelson Cruz can rake, and you need rakin' done, then you don't judge him (as much) by his WAR. The Chone Figginses, who get all their WAR outside the batter's box, that guy is targeted for termination by MY process.
Which isn't "correct," either.
Most teams' process ruled Nelson Cruz out; his market cratered. I'd have given him at least 2/$20, probably 2/$28M, as we wrote here. Everybody was scared of Cruz:
- The (classy) GM's will tell you, Sure, they misjudged Cruz a little bit, and "The Orioles are reaping the benefits of their decision"
- The (half-scared, half-overconfident) bloggers will tell you it's about process
- Dr D will get you Tomorrow's News Today
;- ) just kidding.
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(3) If I didn't have you before here, I'll get you now :- )
It explains why Fly-By-the-Seat-of-Your-Pants, Stars & Scrubs entrepeneurs -- gifted with the desire to get started, to make mistakes, to correct, and to flexibly adjust -- tend to do far better than rich, retired execs who imagine that they can "script" and "solve" their new business ownership before they ever break ground.
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2014 Mariners With Nelson Cruz
The M's have lost 9 games in which the other team scored 1, 2, or 3 runs. We lost 0-1 and 0-2 to Tampa last week, and lose by that score every game to Oakland. Cruz is hitting a homer every third game; that looks like 3 games the Mariners win just out of those nine. LOL.
Just watching the games, I'm sure if our DH had 43 RBI right now, rather than 17 RBI, we'd be 27-20 or 28-19.
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Act, Learn, Build, Repeat. Like Billy Beane does. Quit trying to pretend that, through sheer IQ horsepower, you can script the season. You cannot. James can't, Epstein can't, the Yankees can't. It can't be done.
Play two months to find out what you have ... then spend two months getting what you need ... then fight for the pennant the last two months.
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So, the Mariners think they can win it. When do we start talking about the post-Cano wave of impact bats?
Dr D