7 Surprising Things about the Nelson Cruz Signing
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1 That the Borg Collective Has Come So Far, So Fast. Jeffy's USSM poll has, completely aside from the vids of two hellacious Cruz jacks, a poll up that returns:
| Cruz contract "overall" reaction | % |
| LIKE it | 38 |
| OKAY with it | 37 |
| LOVE it | 12 |
| DON'T like it | 10 |
| HATE it | 3 |
That 3% includes The Official Fangraphs Opinion. It "calculated" $11-20M per hypothetical "win" abstraction, and finished with a flourish: "an early candidate for the worst signing of the offseason."
But who knew that these amigos have lost 97% of their audience. Gentlemen, my work is done here.
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2 That the Mariners Just Added +63 Runs. A few people -- say 9%, but including Sully and Gordon, so that impacts the same way 89% would impact -- have noticed that the Mariners have -12 WAR from DH since Edgar. I'd say 10 straight years of hapless searching after "replacement level" might call "replacement level" dogma into question.
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Compare Nelson Cruz' 104 runs created last year not to "league average" and not to "hypothetical player," but to the 2014 Mariner designated hitters runs created.
That number would be 41. Comparing Cruz not to theoretical constructs, but to real Mariners, the 2014 Mariners just added +63 runs. In one player. :: shrug ::
But, you say, [Cruz + other DH's] might only improve you by +40. Okay, somebody blow my head off.
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3 That Jeff Sullivan Isn't (Yet) an Assistant-Assistant GM. This (Fangraphs, LOL!) Cruz article is as sharp as a razor, admittedly, but far more important: Sullivan would be fun for baseball people to work with. It is genuinely mystifying to me why this guy hasn't been hired.
Well, no, not really. The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. The U.S. seldom elects Thomas Jefferson any more, and Gordon isn't a scouting director yet, either.
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4 That Nelson Cruz is SO Consistent. I glanced back at Ron Shandler's note on him, from last year, which marveled at the metronome-like quality of Nelson Cruz' hitting. Both in component skills, and in production per AB.
He's right! Look again and ... Cruz has been a camouflaged player, even before the 2013 Dr. D prophesied him for 41 homers in fulltime play. Playing time interruptions have caused him to be underrated.
How does this affect his age arc? Tough to say. Steroids also delay aging, so that's a shadow. But I'll bet you that Edgar-like consistency affects age projections.
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The health part is extra surprising. To me, anyway. Sully pointed out that, actually, you take away the PED suspension and Cruz has played like every game for the last 3 years running. We say, "like" every game. Not "every game." 159 is very like 162. Especially if you are Lloyd McClendon.
159 is even more like 162 if you're moving to DH.
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5 That STILL Nobody Gets It On Draft Picks. The #19 pick does project to, what, 6-8 WAR on average?
"Dear Jack Zduriencik,
Please add $40M to the cost of Cruz deal.
Signed, everybody."
If the #19 draft pick doesn't play, somebody else does. You have a #26 guy on the roster. You compare 6-8 WAR from one prospect to .... 6-7.9 WAR from the next prospect. Not to zero. We just discussed this, but SSI doesn't get two thousand tweets. So darkness reigns over Europe for centuries.
Yes, late first rounders have value. Nobody wants borderline-value Kendrys Morales types if the draft pick is the extra thumb on the scale. #20 picks have value. Just not $40 mill worth of value. As they say on the video-game forums: GET BETTER, sabes.
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6 That Nobody Has Left a Comment at the New Mainframe Yet. Dr. D is hurt. But then, Dr. D is a fictional anime character, so it's all good.
I'm going Listverse Mode. You have only yourself to blame. If that doesn't work, next up, Eurosoccer-style "ARE MARINERS ABOUT TO SIGN THIS STARLET?" keyword titles. Or you can avoid this deterioration in the shtick by viewing Nelson Cruz, Cleanup Hitter at the Mainframe. Or perhaps viewing Dr. D's deterioration is the entire point of coming here. He wouldn't know.
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7 That the Mariners Are Really Going to Raise Payroll. Chuck took in lots of money from "Pepsi! 90 Days Same As Cash!" He went to the store to buy a Nutrageous. "You should give that money to a poor child in Togo," said the salesgirl. "No, I'll buy the chocolate. You give the money to Togo."
The "Matt Kemp as second bat in" rumor knocked me out of my chair. Resistance Is Futile, babe.
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8 That NFL and NBA Fans "Get" the Idea of Swagger but We MLB Fans Don't. Have you ever seen Nelson Cruz in a muscle-mag pose?
This last one isn't surprising, so we won't count it. The scoreboard, however, will. Count it, that is, when Nelson Cruz does his thing.
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Bring on the second bat,
Dr. D