7 Surprising Things about the Nelson Cruz Signing
Resistance Is Futile, Dept.

.

1 That the Borg Collective Has Come So Far, So Fast.  Jeffy's USSM poll has, completely aside from the vids of two hellacious Cruz jacks, a poll up that returns:

Cruz contract "overall" reaction %
LIKE it 38
OKAY with it 37
LOVE it 12
DON'T like it 10
HATE it 3

That 3% includes The Official Fangraphs Opinion.  It "calculated" $11-20M per hypothetical "win" abstraction, and finished with a flourish: "an early candidate for the worst signing of the offseason."  

But who knew that these amigos have lost 97% of their audience.  Gentlemen, my work is done here.  

.

2 That the Mariners Just Added +63 Runs.  A few people -- say 9%, but including Sully and Gordon, so that impacts the same way 89% would impact -- have noticed that the Mariners have -12 WAR from DH since Edgar.  I'd say 10 straight years of hapless searching after "replacement level" might call "replacement level" dogma into question.

....

Compare Nelson Cruz' 104 runs created last year not to "league average" and not to "hypothetical player," but to the 2014 Mariner designated hitters runs created.

That number would be 41.  Comparing Cruz not to theoretical constructs, but to real Mariners, the 2014 Mariners just added +63 runs.  In one player.  :: shrug :: 

But, you say, [Cruz + other DH's] might only improve you by +40.  Okay, somebody blow my head off.

.

3 That Jeff Sullivan Isn't (Yet) an Assistant-Assistant GM.  This (Fangraphs, LOL!) Cruz article is as sharp as a razor, admittedly, but far more important:  Sullivan would be fun for baseball people to work with.  It is genuinely mystifying to me why this guy hasn't been hired.

Well, no, not really.  The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong.  The U.S. seldom elects Thomas Jefferson any more, and Gordon isn't a scouting director yet, either.

.

4 That Nelson Cruz is SO Consistent.  I glanced back at Ron Shandler's note on him, from last year, which marveled at the metronome-like quality of Nelson Cruz' hitting.  Both in component skills, and in production per AB.

He's right!  Look again and ... Cruz has been a camouflaged player, even before the 2013 Dr. D prophesied him for 41 homers in fulltime play.  Playing time interruptions have caused him to be underrated.

How does this affect his age arc?  Tough to say.  Steroids also delay aging, so that's a shadow.  But I'll bet you that Edgar-like consistency affects age projections.

.....

The health part is extra surprising.  To me, anyway.  Sully pointed out that, actually, you take away the PED suspension and Cruz has played like every game for the last 3 years running.  We say, "like" every game.  Not "every game."  159 is very like 162.  Especially if you are Lloyd McClendon.

159 is even more like 162 if you're moving to DH.

.

5 That STILL Nobody Gets It On Draft Picks.  The #19 pick does project to, what, 6-8 WAR on average?

"Dear Jack Zduriencik,

Please add $40M to the cost of Cruz deal.  

Signed, everybody."

If the #19 draft pick doesn't play, somebody else does.  You have a #26 guy on the roster.  You compare 6-8 WAR from one prospect to .... 6-7.9 WAR from the next prospect.  Not to zero.  We just discussed this, but SSI doesn't get two thousand tweets.  So darkness reigns over Europe for centuries.

Yes, late first rounders have value.  Nobody wants borderline-value Kendrys Morales types if the draft pick is the extra thumb on the scale.  #20 picks have value.  Just not $40 mill worth of value.  As they say on the video-game forums:  GET BETTER, sabes. 

.

6 That Nobody Has Left a Comment at the New Mainframe Yet.  Dr. D is hurt.  But then, Dr. D is a fictional anime character, so it's all good.

I'm going Listverse Mode.  You have only yourself to blame.  If that doesn't work, next up, Eurosoccer-style "ARE MARINERS ABOUT TO SIGN THIS STARLET?" keyword titles.  Or you can avoid this deterioration in the shtick by viewing Nelson Cruz, Cleanup Hitter at the Mainframe.  Or perhaps viewing Dr. D's deterioration is the entire point of coming here.  He wouldn't know.

.

7 That the Mariners Are Really Going to Raise Payroll.  Chuck took in lots of money from "Pepsi!  90 Days Same As Cash!"  He went to the store to buy a Nutrageous.  "You should give that money to a poor child in Togo," said the salesgirl.  "No, I'll buy the chocolate.  You give the money to Togo."

The "Matt Kemp as second bat in" rumor knocked me out of my chair.  Resistance Is Futile, babe.

.

8 That NFL and NBA Fans "Get" the Idea of Swagger but We MLB Fans Don't.  Have you ever seen Nelson Cruz in a muscle-mag pose?

This last one isn't surprising, so we won't count it.  The scoreboard, however, will.  Count it, that is, when Nelson Cruz does his thing.

.

Bring on the second bat, 

Dr. D

 

Blog: 

Comments

1

This had a coupla facts that had escaped my rather deficited attention:
....
While many will forever connect Cruz to PEDs as a result of that infraction, he was tested extensively in 2013 and in 2014 without suspension, and he batted .269/.331/.518 in that time, so the Mariners are likely to have a significant offensive upgrade on their hands.
... Mariners DHs combined to bat just .190/.266/.301 last year, while their right fielders hit a pedestrian .255/.308/.413. 
Though the move to Seattle’s Safeco Field would appear to be a detriment to his right-handed pop, both ESPN Park Factors and Baseball Prospectus Park Factors indicated that in 2014, Orioles Park at Camden Yards was actually less homer-friendly for right-handed bats than Safeco Field. That’s not to say Cruz will repeat his career year, but the drop-off could be less significant than some are anticipating.

2
misterjonez's picture

I was one of the people reading his stuff back when it was LeoneforThird. It's been fun being an infinitesimally small part of his story.
I'm about to call shenanigans on replacement level DH's. I think you can legitimately arrive at RLP for most of the defensive positions, assuming you're talking strictly in terms of total WAR (meaning, if you're including defensive contributions in the formula).
But a replacement level DH? It doesn't seem to exist. DH, more than any other spot by a MILE, seems to be kryptonite to far too many MLB hitters. The parade of failed DH attempts here (with a lone season each by Jose Vidro and Kendrys Morales sprinkled in to by no means make the position a legit strength, but no longer a nauseating weakness) have convinced me that DH just might be one of the most difficult positions to fill with average-or-better offensive production.
And, hey, I put up a post on your other site but it was awaiting moderation ;-)

3
Taro's picture

I'm not as concerned about his age curve as the mainstream is, as I think he is probably roiding and will hopefully continue to do so. But I think as an overall hitter he'll be a bit underwhelming, consider the back-spin RH stroke and Safeco.
Not the most inspired signing in the world, but overpay and all, hes an upgrade.
Still one hitter short, and probably a flier SP, then bench. And don't deal Saunders.

5

....that I've read recently is that in the final year of his contract Cruz will be gobbling up something like 10% of the M's salary structure.
That's worth remembering.  It puts a kink in the armor downt he line.  But it is the standard operating procedure of MLB teams.  Basically the idea is see Cruz as a capital investment and then depreciate him as it ages.
It works if down the line too much of your capital isn't tied up in broken investments.
It is forseeable that 4 years from now you have nearly $60M invested in (potentially) unproductive King/Cano/Cruz.
Such is the cost of doing business today, I suspect. 
Our investment is in one of a hot stock. 
We're in on Cruz and he's trending upward.  He's not quite a Blue Chip investment, but he has a history of solid returns.  We paid a premium for last year's hot performance, one that won't likely be duplicated.  But with three simply solid years he'll return dividends on the investment.
But, returning to baseball terms, purchasing Cruz isn't at all about the return on investment in WAR terms.  Not this purchase, anyway.  This one is about the step to the ALCS.  If Cruz mashes and we collapse, then it all wasn't really worth what we hoped to get out of it.  Teams sometimes invest, hoping to get a simple return.  The BoSox and the Cards and the Giants invest with a bigger goal.....an October one.
We've crossed the line from the smaller intent to the bigger one.  That is significant.  But it changes the evaluation procedure for the Cruz get.   
Play in October, with Cruz playing a role, and it is all worth it.  Don't do that......and it was badly spent.
We missed playing for something significant by one game with a DH black hole of gigantic proportions, a sicness in CF all season and a generally cruddy LF. 
We could upgrade there without spending the future Cruz cash.  We could have a playoff game without him, maybe just adding guys we have on the farm.
making the playoffs with Cruz isn't enough.  It's a bold move.  Now we need to go somewhere.

6

This from Steve Adams:
......

Comment From Bill

 

Thoughts on the Donaldson deal?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

Stunned, more or less. Billy Beane and the A's in general make a lot of good moves, but that trade looks awful for Oakland and I can't find a way to like it.

......

Comment From Josh

 

What is your reaction to the deal Nelson Cruz got from the Mariners? Short term and long term?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

I thought he'd get more like $64MM, so in a sense they got him a little cheaper than I was expecting. It makes them better in 2015-16, which is when they're trying to go for it anyway. It'll be bad in two years, maybe sooner. It's not a good contract, but neither was the V-Mart signing and they at least saved $10MM there.

Comment From RallyMonkey

 

Taking into account team needs which signing do you like more, Martinez 4/68 or Cruz 4/58?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

I'll take the younger guy on the cheaper contract. Plus Cruz can fake being an outfielder some in 2015 if needed. And the M's needed a bat more. Plus, the Tigers' long-term outlook is so, so, so ugly with all of the huge contracts they've given to declining players.

......

Comment From Gary

 

Assuming the Cubs $138M offer is true do you think the Sox get him if they go up to $130M ?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

I don't think Lester signs for less than $150MM. I can see the Cubs going there a lot more than I can see Boston.

......

Comment From Bob

 

Matt Kemp isn't going to get traded is he?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

I think there's a definite chance he gets moved.

......

Comment From Ryan

 

Hearing a trade of Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes. Is this rumor true?

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

The amount of random reporters filling Twitter with bogus trade scenarios is becoming staggering. I'm a little surprised at how willingly people will latch onto this stuff, honestly.

......

Comment From Braves Brothers Ke...

 

Does Ervin Santana really believe some team is gonna make a horrible decision and give him a long term deal worth more than $15mill a year? He got lucky last season.

via
·
about 3 hours ago

 

 

Steve Adams

 

If Ervin gets less than 4/50 I'll be surprised.

 

7

...this is a contract that the M's can surely sell for $.50 on the dollar. If in two years the M's are in awful shape--there are at least 10 teams that would pay you $15 million for him. So a disappointing performance would not cripple this team by 10%.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.