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Stubs

stub, n.:  the truncated remnant of a Pencil, cigarette, or similarly-shaped object.  The predictable sort of mid-cost Civic.  Mike Hargrove wore through his entire pencil writing Jose Vidro's name onto his lineup card.  Finally his pencil, and his sanity, wore out and he went home.

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Stars & Scrubs isn't an absolute.  Every team has a few mid-cost Civics carrying the org spears.  But Melky Cabrera in right field for 5 years at $16-18M?  You've got DH ossified, for 4 years, and the clock hasn't started on those 4 years yet.  You've got 3B ossified for 7 years.  Now you're going to ossify RF for 5 years.

What happens when D.J. Peterson, or Patrick Kivlehan, or Brad Miller, turn out to be the White Whale? (Benihana's instant classic re: 'net rats and our love for club-controlled 5-WAR players.)  You see what Dr. D does not like about Civics.  The ideal is to funnel 99% of your money into the biggest supertankers you can find, in about 5 roster slots, and to have a Zdurienckian farm system wasp's nest that has the wasps stinging each other.

Cabrera is the opposite of this.

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Scars

scar, n.  The warts and tumors that prevent an otherwise-appealing player from generating any real enthusiasm.  The unpredictable sort of mid-cost Civic.   Mike Morse can hit a mortal ton, but his injuries, footspeed, and iron glove prevent you from getting any real use out of him.

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Melky had a benign tumor on his spine that probably caused his down year in 2013, so we shouldn't kid.  But he's got that, and he's got the fact that he spent eighty years as a mediocre player before the PED's.  And he's got the PED's.  And he's got the fact that people who watch him play go "Huh?  This guy get 5 years?"

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The Melk-Man and the Prime Directive

So Melky isn't Dr. D's kind of player.  Especially with the D.J., Kivvy, Logo, et al. back pressure.  That said, I actually like Melky's game a lot.  And it would balance the current M's offense like salt balances pepper.  Or like Pepper balances Tony Stark.  

The Mariners could definitely use a reliable hitter up at the top of the lineup, allowing the kids to take 'em on in the third inning. We've also heard that they could use a righty, but that's just a rumor.

You flick through the almanacs looking for comps and ... there aren't really many.  The .300 hitters do that because:

• They have power (Homers increase AVG because they are "bonus hits" not subject to BABIP)
• They have speed (and leg out .265 into .300)

Melky, though, is neither of those things.  He just a good old-fashioned .300 hitter, like Ken Griffey Jr's daddy was.  He adds in 35 doubles and 15 homers with his forty-odd walks.  

He's got really great bat control - he can drag the bat through the zone on a curve, like Robinson Cano, and he can adjust to pitches in-flight, like Ichiro.  He throws the ball really well; his upper body is powerful and the slugging percentage isn't soft.  He's not an illusion.

You could compare him to:

• Dustin Ackley's 85th-percentile upside.  If Ackley batted switch.
• the good Kendrys Morales, if Morales didn't move like baboon with two club feet

Morales is also a reliable, predictable, "hard" out who bats switch.  Melky has a little less power and a little more AVG, but they have about the same 120 OPS+.  Make Kendrys a bit more of a contact guy, and put him in RF, and you've got a whale of a nice little Civic there.  (Dr. D drives Civics in real life.)

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Michael Saunders last year had the same 120'ish OPS, and they ended up about the same place but did it in every opposite way you could imagine:

• Left -vs- right
• Swings, misses, and screaming-meemie HR's -vs- consistent base hits
• Lanky -vs- stocky
• Good and bad months -vs- production on game-in, game-out basis
• Gasp-inducing ugly swing -vs- butter-smooth, CG-balanced, beautiful sports motion
• Superman potential -vs- known quantity
• Part-time -vs- sun-exposed
• Explosive running -vs- unhurried movements
• Reasonable name -vs- name that inspires disturbing photos on SSI
• etc

It would be pleasant to see, for a change, a Coin Op Hitter who didn't bellow *$!%# at the top of his lungs twice a night as he walked back to the dugout.  Hey, you grok me.  I love Michael Saunders.  Am just sayin'.

At Safeco specifically, it would be pleasant to see a right hand .300 hitter who gets on top of the ball.  And I'd love to see if he reacted like this to thunder with the roof closed.

Would Dr. D, as a GM, bid 5/$75 for this player?  If I needed him, and if there were some reason to depart from my Stars & Scrubs Prime Directive, sure.  But those are two big fat hairy IF's.

If the M's can't do anything else, Melky would be very "pleasant" to watch as a #2 hitter.  Dr. D isn't looking for pleasant, but that's okay.  Explain to him what you do with the minor-league beehive and he's content.

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There's new shtick up at my second site, D-O-V.  Oh by the way:  comps for Melky, as far as .300 with 35 doubles, 15 homers and 0 garbage swings per year?  Yadier Molina was the most-similar hitter that I scraped off the sides of the mayo jar.

Dozing off watching the Melk-a-thon,

Jeff