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The World's #1 Starting Pitcher (and Football Team)

All we want is a Star for Xmas

Since the 1960's, the idea of the "Elo Rating System" has dominated tournament chess. It has percolated from there into soccer, into college football, into video games, and so on.

It's a rating system that is both (1) mathematically as strong as a python, and (2) intuitively simple. The average player has a rating around 1400 "class C", within a range that is about 800-2400. If he sits down on Friday night across from a player with a rating of 1601 ("class B"), he's got about a 25% chance, 3 to 1.

That is also how many "rating points" the players have at stake. If the class C player wins, his rating will go up +12, to 1412; if the class B player wins, his rating will go up +4, to 1604. Thusly:

Winner	Class C new rating	Class B new rating
Class B	1396 (class "D")	1604
Class C	1412	1588 (class "C")

Each "class" interval is about 200 points and as it turns out, corresponds neatly with the idea of a "standard deviation." And, interestingly, by the time you get to 2 SD's -- 400 rating points' difference -- victory for the lower player is virtually impossible.

(Christopher Langan, with an IQ between 195 and 210, once said that if you get to 2 SD's difference in IQ, the people begin to have trouble exchanging information. Although Langan himself enjoys being hard to understand...

Now imagine the communication between two beings with (say) 10 SDs' difference. Or imagine chessgames between computers with 3300 ratings, vs. human chessmasters with ratings of 2300. We literally do not understand what computers are doing when winning certain endgames, like Rook and Bishop against Rook. Nobody understands the computers' play, not with a year's study. Which is a scary thought if you've ever seen the Matrix.)

This system was so simple and powerful that it exceeded Arpad Elo's wildest dreams. Elo had said, "rating systems will be accepted according to the players' confidence in their intutitve accuracy." How right he was. When a 1500 player now sits down across from a 1700, he has a near-perfect idea of where that 1700 player is ... in tactical combinations, in positional play, in Rook endings, etc.

"1700" describes a chessplayer better than his name does.

Seattle Seahawks

Nate Silver has an article out, musing about how sky-high the Seahawks' Elo rating is. Exec Sum:

The Seahawks' 35-6 crushing of Arizona put them #1 again ...
(... similar to how the Spurs' crushing of the Heat would make them "scariest" team)
The Seahawks current 1755 rating -- different scale than chess -- has them #21 all time ...
Adjacent to the Montana 49'ers, Aikman Cowboys, and Brady Patriots
If the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, they'll be #3 in history, behind two Brady teams
The Seahawks' record against high-rated teams is unbelievable
Russell Wilson has never, in 52 games, been "out of a game" late in the 4th quarter

There y'go Rick. That's the HBDI way of capturing the Seahawks' roll. ;- )

The World's #1 Starting Pitcher

Bill James has his own "Elo system" for rating Opening Day aces. It's actually an improvement in one way: it subtly penalizes inactivity. (In 1977, Fischer hadn't played in five years, but his rating was mathematically the same as in 1972.)

At the end of the 2014 season, here was the list of top Aces:

World's #1 Starting Pitcher
September 28, 2014

Clayton Kershaw - 626.01
Felix Hernandez - 578.42
Max Scherzer - 564.43
Chris Sale - 562.54
David Price - 560.85
Johnny Cueto - 550.86
Cole Hamels - 550.77
Jon Lester - 550.58
Adam Wainwright - 546.99
Madison Bumgarner - 545.31

These kind of rating systems are awesome when you use them to --- > put into perspective the career arcs of a Hisashi Iwakuma or a Corey Kluber. It doesn't matter that Kluber had 7.2 WAR to Felix' 6.1 last year. Kluber does not go in to 2015 with the same standing or "fear factor." Hisashi Iwakuma is beautiful to watch, a sight to behold, when he's healthy. It doesn't exactly make him Cole Hamels.

HBDI, baby.

After his amazing run through the playoffs, Madison Bumgarner skyrocketed to #2. This sparked a series of howls that other pitchers -- Sale, for example, hadn't had the chance to improve their ratings, so it wasn't "fair" to include the postseason.

Ratings are not reward and punishment. They are a description of reality. Bumgarner didn't get his new 572 rating as an incentive to pitch well going forward; he got it as a natural consequence of what he did.

Supposing Roger Federer's rating is 600 and Rafael Nadal's is 550 -- but Nadal goes out and wins a Grand Slam by 6-0, 6-0, 6-0 scores all the way through while Federer swims in the Bahamas. Nadal is "scarier" after his rampage than he was before it, correct? Ratings reflect that.

Madison Bumgarner is now "scarier" than he was before the playoffs. His rating is, necessarily, higher after his exploits than it was before them. That's the truth. Get over it.

There is a life lesson here. No Central Agency of Fairness exists in the real world; somebody notify the NEA of this, please. Mariners blogs aren't bigger or smaller based on what the NEA thinks will build our self-esteem.

........

HBDI practical application: if the Mariners had some way to shed Taijuan Walker and nab Cole Hamels or David Price, I'm in. I do not know if the radar gun agrees, and don't much care.

Felix Hernandez is a "supergrandmaster," a guy who (in these terms) a full standard deviation, maybe two SD's, ahead of some other Opening Day starters. Here's SABRMatt's idea of "supermarginal" players. Chessplayers understand the concept of a "supergrandmaster." One of them is worth three lesser stars. One Lionel Messi is worth any number of Danny Welbecks.

Kyle Seager's rating is Master Class and, though most people don't realize it, his rating is still rising nicely.

Justin Ruggiano's "rating" would be bottom of the barrel, whatever his platoon splits.

Logan Morrison's would be rather low, but climbing in an eyebrow-raising way, like that of a talented 13-year-old chessplayer. Brad Miller's would be similar.

Youse guys demand a right fielder with a respectable "rating." Y'understand that Dr. D is not philosophically opposed to this. :- )

Stars & Scrubs fo'eva,

Jeff

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