Seattle Sports Insider

It's not enough to be a good player; you must also play good - 2

Posted by

jemanji

4/21/10

=== Try It Another Way ===

The control ratios for the M's pitchers in their April reg-season auditions, 2:1 being acceptable:

5.3 - Jason Vargas
2.2 - Doug Fister
1.0 - Ian Snell
0.5 - RRS

Or, the ERA+:

100 - Vargas
277 - Fister
77 - Snell
88 - RRS

SSI realizes that three-four starts are not as many as you'd like. But! What did you have March and April for, if the wrong guys are going to win the competition and then get pole-axed anyway?

So forgetting this March and April, here are their Shandlerian Base Performance Values (BPV's) from 2009, heavily weighting K, BB, and HR. A BPV of 50 being acceptable,average-solid SP, 100 being Cy Young candidate, and 106 being Felix last year:

54 - Vargas (in 2009)
75 - Fister (in 2009)
1 - Snell (in 2009)
48- RRS (in 2009)

It doesn't matter how you cut it; AL performance to date leaves Snell as the Mensa answer to, "which of these is not like the others". The only possible argument for preferring Snell is that you believe that he is going to perform much better than he did in 2009, and much better than he has in 2010.

Supposing that you don't prefer Snell, you might still retain Snell on the basis that you feel you need to keep all these starting pitchers in the org. With Lee and Bedard hitting the beaches, Pauley and Nick Hill and Shawn Kelley* behind them, Pineda and Robles coming to camp to compete for jobs in 2011, it wouldn't be my judgment that the depth is a key consideration.

=== Dr's R/X ===

As we've insufferably gloated in our Scorecard series, SSI's magic 8 ball has been unstoppable so far in 2010. (The latest in-yo-face-disgrace being Jose Lopez' sterling UZR's after the Figgins-Lopez switch.)

If the Magic 8 Ball was to prophesy the next move correctly again -- simply by deciphering the wisest move -- it would read thusly:

Option 1 - Deal whichever of the M's 4 starters bring a really attractive return (unlikely)
Option 2 - Deal Snell for nothing, to a place where he'll have a career (the NL), or DFA him
Option 2b - When Bedard returns, give Ryan Rowland-Smith an honored role as Swing Man...
Option 2c - unless RRS clearly outpitches Jason Vargas in the meantime, in which case let Vargas stay warm in Tacoma as #6 starter
Option 3 - if Snell is really a given in Seattle, move RRS to the Swing Man role for Lee, and
Option 3b - move Vargas to #6SP when Bedard is back

The Magic 8 Ball is concerned it will not work this time. Snell and RRS are announced as starters for their next turns; Fister and Vargas are not. This isn't decisive, but does make jemanji chew his fingernails.

The M's have, since Zduriencik got here, maintained clear signals that those who play good will be on the field. I think they should send this signal again.

My $0.02,

Jeff

Comments

Decisions... decisions

Of the aforementioned choices, 1 or 2 seems to have the most potential for bringing back a useful piece. But honestly, with Kotchman's good recent performance, I can't figure out which position we'd be trying to fill -- unless the DH situation forces a change and the LF dominoes fall because of a potential MB move to fill that need.
My prediction, barring a sudden retirement or injury to KGJ or Sweeney -- one of the starters is moved to long relief and one of the lesser bullpen arms heads South. My $0.01 *grins*

The problem you usually run

The problem you usually run into with sending the sucky kids to the back of the line is what you gave up for them. Insecure GMs look at stat sheets and say "But I traded my NUMBER ONE draftpick from 05 for this guy, I can't just say I gave that up for a schmoe!"
Jeff Clement has an OPS of 10 right now. No, I didn't leave a number off of that. It hasn't been a stellar two weeks for him.
All we gave up for Wilson and Snell was money.
Cedeno - ha.
Clement - ha ha. You think Kotchman gets a lot of junk for bein a soft-hitting 1B? At least he can use his glove.
Bret Lorin is out til July after hip surgery.
Pribanic is struggling to strike out 5 per 9 in low-A.
Adcock is doin fine - in A+ for the 3rd year.
There's no player tearing up the universe somewhere else demanding we get "proper return" out of the players we received. We don't owe Snell anything. The man's getting a lot of money, and if he can't beat out the other starters then by all means drop him to long relief in blowout games to work on his game until he CAN beat em out.
I'd actually support moving RRS to the pen too, but that can wait til Bedard gets back. I really hope Vargas and Fister can keep pitching like this, but we'll have options lying around if they can't.
Snell had better get to work and prove he can be one of em.
~G

First demotion will be LH, I think

Pretty simple: bullpen needs lefties, rotation doesn't.
Based on Mariner track record, RRS would keep the job; based on 2010 performance, Vargas would keep the job.
Both are 27. RRS has 271 MLB innings over 4 seasons; Vargas has 237 MLB innings over 5 seasons. Biggest difference: Vargas was quite bad in 06 and 07, losing a spot in the Marlins rotation and then badly muffing his chances to break into the Mets rotation. Then missed all of 2008 due to hip labrum and elbow surgeries.
There has been some discussion that he "wore out" as the 09 season went along. Indeed, when he came back in Sept. and was used only in a bullpen role, he seemed refreshed and struck out 9 and walked 0 in 12.0 IP, which foreshadowed his strong start this year in that department.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=vargaja01&year=Ca...
RRS has steadier overall numbers, but Doc has strongly pointed out that he loses a ton of effectiveness once his pitch count and batters faced climbs in later innings. And he does have an 8.6 K/9 split as a reliever.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=rowlary01&year=Ca...
It's a tough call, but really (assuming that Vargas has put his ugly period behind him) it looks like they can't go too wrong either way. Both guys ought to contribute as long/middle guys in the pen. I assume it will be Vargas just becuase RRS will be considered the "incumbent." Vargas also has a better split vs. LH hitters, making him a better fit for a situational role. But they could swap by the end of the year.

Second demotion will be Snell

Because it just has to be.
He got 12 starts last year, and he had 5.2 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9. OK, fresh start. Three starts this year: 5.1 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9.
It just won't cut it.

:blinks:

not sure whether to c-point these 15-20 comments or just mosh six articles off them. :- )
In ST, I wrote off Vargas and he is rubbing my nose in it pretty good. He's using a straight 87-88 fastball and a pretty fair changeup to run Jon Lester K/BB's. Anybody optimistic that Vargas can put together a run as a BTA starting pitcher?

re Decisions

If you were able to clear your traffic jam by getting anything back for one of the BOR's, we s'pose it would be a Grade B prospect, somethin' or other.
Not sure any of our 4 BOR's are going to be desirables in a blockbuster, unless somebody around the league has taken a fancy to Doug Fister.

And in terms of Snell ROI

I think Zduriencik can justify claiming that the key to the Clement deal was Jack Wilson...

The velo charts back you up Spec

My guess here

Is that when he first came up last year he was overthrowing, thus the higher than usual velo in early '09. then he "wore out" and more than seeing a dip in velocity we saw more of a overall "Mushiness" of stuff. Just like RRS when he is a little tired the thing that these lefties lose is not neccisarily velocity on thier fastballs but sharpness of thier breaking balls and deception on their changes.
Now in 2010 Vargas comes up under control, composed, smooth, and refreshed, and what we are seeing is NOT increased velocity of his FB, which he didn't really need. We see a very nice and tight slider, and a VERY impressive and deceptive change, with the swings and misses accompanied. We saw neither of those two pitches at all year last year (IMHO because of the over thrown FB).

I'll buy that for a dollar OBF

First Big Shot at the big time, he's all amp'ed up, throwing harder than he's capable of sustaining.
..............
Maybe now that he's relaxed into his game, he's showing precision.
.............
That's not where my money is: my money is on his being out of the SP role, wherever he is in baseball, pretty shortly. But he's in control of his own fate :- )

Until Jack can hit something

Until Jack can hit something other than Orioles pitching, I wouldn't claim him as a return on any sort of investment. If he's our 85 OPS+ SS with a great glove, fine. Boot some more easy grounders and hit like an anorexic girlscout again and I'm gonna get irked.
~G

what -

you got some kind of problem with a 1:10 EYE?
Boot some more easy grounders and hit like a girlscout and there's always Nick Franklin behind him... the two of them could 'cut heads' in the batting cage for the job...

Like Vargas better than Fister ...

But, I'll certainly concede neither is a sure thing.
I like Vargas better because of superior minor league numbers and, (more importantly), he's a lefty in Safeco. His kryptonite is the long ball -- but it's really common for pitchers to experience some gopheritis in their early days, which they correct with experience.
Fister - even given his superior command - is a RHP in Safeco. While his HR rates in the minors were acceptable - they weren't exceptional. Certainly not enough innings with Fister to draw firm conclusions on his ultimate HR rate yet. And I don't believe Vargas has enough MLB innings to be certain where he's going to land. But, Vargas certainly has an edge in park effects which should help him more than Fister.
For me - RRS vs. Vargas is the much harder call. The tough call there is that RRS (at the moment), appears to be regressing instead of progressing. Vargas looks to moving BACK to what he was when he got ROY votes back in 2005, before getting hurt.
Honestly, I think the take of RRS being ideal for swing-man may be exactly on the money.