It's not enough to be a good player; you must also play good - 1

=== Looking Out for a Soft Landing ===

At fangraphs.com > Standup Comedy, the league leaders feature David Letterman, Jeff Sullivan and two or three other guys.  Seems Jeffy can't go more than a paragraph without a razor-sharp witticism :- )

[Cliff Lee is] on pace to return on May 2nd or - in a more unlikely scenario - on April 30th. When asked who would come out of the rotation to make room, Wak said they are looking at "a number of options." That number is four.

HEH!  Reminds me of Jim Lampley covering yacht racing.  He read some 3x5 card, "The S.S. Neurotic is capable of speeds in excess of 56 knots!"  Lampley blinked, commented, "like 57.  58."

.

=== 4x4x4 = ? Dept. ===

Not to counter the apt one-liner, but the nature of the M's problemo is that their best choice for downsizing (Ian Snell) is also their worst choice for bullpen duty.  If they do the SSI-Logical thing and give Snell's place to Lee, you've got an unappetizing situation in the bullpen...

... and, compounding the problemo, Snell is the only one of the BOR 4 with no options left.  (Check me on Vargas.)

Here is the SSI estimation that Ryan Rowland-Smith is the best option for superior bullpen performance.

So the options start including stuff like,

  • Keep Snell in there, and use RRS as a versatile lefty in the bullpen, vs.
  • Keep RRS in there, and DFA Snell vs
  • Find somebody who could use Ian Snell, and package him with Langerhans for Julio Lugo vs
  • Trade Doug Fister for Albert Pujols, vs
  • you see what we mean here

.

=== Too Close to the Situation ===

To the Mariners, Ian Snell isn't an NL pitcher with a 97/91 control ratio in the AL.  To them, he is a person, a friend, a nice kid who's coachable, a guy you don't want to gutkick after the oceans of personal challenges he has worked hard to overcome.

SSI predicts that the Mariners, not being inhuman monsters, are going to subconsciously decide that they can't do that to poor Ian, and consciously justify that as, "This is the guy with no options left."  I'm not complaining.  Just kibitzing.

The problemo is that when you are unfair in favor of your friend, you automatically become unfair to the detriment of everybody else.  Jason Vargas is a human being too.  Not to punish the M's -- a great organization now -- based on a phantom conviction; we're just guessing at what goes on down there at Royal Brougham.

In Earl Weaver terms, all the other 24 guys in the clubhouse are guys to whom you owe something:  you owe it to them (genuinely OWE it to them) to give them the best chance to win.

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Part 2

Comments

1

I'm curious why Snell is a bad option for the pen. Is it his lack of control or lack of mental ability to handle the demotion?
At first glance, he would seem to be a good candidate for some long relief. He really seems to get into trouble the second and (if he makes it) third time through a lineup, which wouldn't be a problem for even long relief. If a move to the pen added a few mph to his fastball, he might be better than Colome and he should be able to eat some innings for you.
Shrug - Jack has iced guys making more cash than Snell.
 

2

Those were precisely the two things that the media guys brought up in the postgame the other night.  Well, if he's having problems with his control in the rotation, what's he going to do in the bullpen... plus, he probably wouldn't handle it that well...
That's what I thought Grizzle.  Long relief -- in games that are DECIDED -- would be a great way to experiment and see if there really is a statue under the marble.
"ICED" guys?  Jack-O Zurinzio has iced HOW many guys?

3
KingCorran's picture

This scenario wouldn't seem to jive with our previous descriptions of Zduriencik as a take-no-prisoners GM... fair to those on his side, sure, but ruthless in getting what's best.  Or did I misinterpret earlier SSI descriptions of Z, expanding that view beyond a trading paradigm to in-house management as well?

4

But there are no absolutes amigo... just because (say) Lou Piniella is the most-likely-to-bunt manager in baseball, doesn't mean he's going to bunt every single time Tony LaRussa would...
Even if Zduriencik is the most surgeon-cool roster analysts among 30 GM's, doesn't mean he'd never make a decision based on the human element...
We always think in tendencies, not in absolutes...
......................
That said, Baker said he was told a few hours ago that Lee may pitch earlier than May 2, and if so, that may intimate that somebody other than Vargas is up for the role change...

5

...Wak is going to skip Snell in the rotation next time around and insert Lee on APRIL 30th.  So...I think the Mariners are seriously considering punting on Snell.

6
KingCorran's picture

Good point...
That would make a lot of sense.  There's always room for irrationality... even in world-class chess champs.  ^_^

7

THis is what Wak has written down for his rotation right now, according to the twitter round-up (thanks to MFaninAlaska at MC)
Friday at White Sox -- LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith vs. RHP Gavin Floyd
Saturday at White Sox -- RHP Doug Fister vs.RHP Freddy Garcia
Sunday at White Sox -- LHP Jason Vargas vs. LHP Jon Danks
Monday at Kansas City -- Felix Hernandez vs. TBA
Tuesday at Kansas City -- RHP Ian Snell vs. TBA
Wednesday at Kansas City -- LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith vs. TBA
Thursday -- OFF DAY
Friday vs. Rangers --- LHP Cliff Lee vs. TBA
Saturday vs. Rangers --- RHP Felix Hernandez vs.
Do you see it?
He's using King Felix (and eventually Cliff Lee) every fifth day...and he's going to run the other 4 out there whenever he feels like it.  The classic...SIX-MAN...rotation.

8

That would be...hilarious. RRS might actually benefit from an extra day of rest in between starts. Believe it when I see it, of course.
As far as who Wak and Z have put on ice - Silva and Batista were both frozen out pretty early last year and both made serious $. Joh lost a lot of PT to Johnson as well.

9
NyMariner05's picture

They should pull the plug on Snell. He's not the type of player this organization is building around.  He has bad command, he nibbles, he is mentally soft, etc..
Vargas and Fister have mound presence, they challenge you despite not having the greatest stuff out there. They believe in their stuff and their defense. Snell on the other hands, goes down to Texas for his second start of the year and as Drayer reported "He looked at the park and names on the back of the jerseys" and wanted no part of it.
Now I know it's  come out that he's had some family issues, but dating back to his Pittsburgh days, this guy isn't the most confident fella out there. 
Bottomline though is that he's just not a good ML pitcher, he isn't even a decent one. He's also on a one year deal (no way that option gets picked up), so let's just flush him.

10

...but what happens when Bedard comes back? We suddenly have an embarrassment of riches in the pitching dept.
Not to discount the human factor -- being graceful is important even in the long term as we try to attract other free agents. But, my hope is that merit, and not contract obligations or emotional duress, is the deciding factor.
I can imagine that this type of decision, choosing the best among good performers and knowing that one will lose their roster position, may perhaps be the most difficult kind to make for a coach/general manager.

11

...the club will be out of the part of their schedule that has a gazillion off days...and at that point, you go to a five-man rotation, RRS becomes a LOOGY, Vargas becomes your swing man and Fister and Snell round out the rotation.

12

Sorry Matt, but I think you're fishing here.  The rotation remains EXACTLY constant (since Snell's return from bereavement leave), right up until the day Lee comes back.  That is, by all I've seen, the first day he could possibly come back.  And Felix would be pitching on normal 4-days rest -- which means Vargas and Fister BOTH get skipped to get the two aces on the table.
Any concept of 6-man cannot even be postulated until we see who takes the mound in the next three games.
I still believe move #1 - is RRS or Vargas to the pen -- for the simple reason the pen doesn't have ANY lefties in it at all.  Based on 2010 performance, Railroad Spike would be the logical choice to the pen - with Colome heading to Tacoma (to hold onto K-Tex' Rule5 card as long as possible).
 

13

...simply because, if the report was accurate and the guys who follow Lee and Hernandez are different than the guys who pitch before Lee and Hernandez...that would imply that the club wants to get looks at all four remaining candidates before making a decision.

14

A storm of caps go up in the air like Army blinkin' scored on Navy...
Snell is a nice kid and he is living the MLB dream, but in SSI's world he is odd man out and without any question about it...

16

Are you serious NYM?
.................
If that's anywhere near accurate, this is a guy who could bank some serious jack pitching for KC or San Diego and enjoy the MLB sights for 6-8 years. 
Not everybody relishes a fight, and that's fine.
..................
We hesitate to blame character for struggles like Meche's and Snell's; I just think Snell's fastball is too hittable.

17
KingCorran's picture

Would San Diego want him?
Maybe the real question is... would they value him enough to take him as one of the 6 or 7 guys in an Adrian deal?

18

But fans, all fans, especially me, are simply terrible at guessing what ML teams will do.
Every new trade contradicts us pundits ... then we blink, shake our heads, and move on to shouting down the next proposed fan-trade as unpossible.  :- )
.................
Snell is an ex-NL All-Star, somewhat similar to Beltre, and not making much money.  It's reasonable to wonder whether GM X or GM Y will fancy his chances of resurrecting Snell in the NL.
Meche is the precedent here.  Four very interesting pitches and some demonstrations of ML success.

19
NyMariner05's picture

Quite sure she speculated that he saw the names on the back of the jerseys and pretty much let that get into his head, instead of executing his gameplan.
I recall him also lamenting last year how the AL lineups are so much more difficult to deal with than in the NL.  I think Snell is a good guy and I'm rooting for him, but he strikes me as a player with low confidence.
 

20

Not many guys ask to go to AAA.
Anyway, if the names on the backs of the Rangers' jerseys get to you in April, you do not want to step out of the dugout in an October series with the Yankees.  Right now Snell is our #2.

21

While I think a lefty goes to the pen with Lee's arrival (cause the pen has no lefty).  I'd agree that *TODAY* Snell is likely to follow when Bedard arrives.  Except, Bedard doesn't arrive today.  So, I think any of the bottom three could play themselves out of a job between now and B-Day.
That said - the argument against trading Snell (at least prior to the end of July), is that Bedard has been a long-time injury issue -- and Lee just spent a month being one.  I think anyone "assuming" perfect health from the guys coming off the DL is just asking to be frustrated.  And there is the rub.  Once you trade away Snell, he ceases to be a fallback option.  Who is next in line?  French? Olson?
The question the GM has to already have the answer to is -- where precisely is the precipitous leap off the cliff drop in production?  Because you do NOT want to drop off to Feierabend ('08) quality replacement should anything in the back end fold up.
Everyone but me seems to be confident that Fister's 80 innings are an indication that he's going to be PEACHY going forward.  Everyone was also confident that Jaku was going to be a solid BOR guy -- 'maybe' even a decent #3.  Why?  Because he put up a swell 90 innings in 2008 - and a top-flight Spring Training - and ... (wait for it) ... he just threw strikes and didn't give up gophers.  (His 2008 K *AND* HR rates were better than Fister's, just fyi).
Nobody is going all in on Vargas, yet.  Why?  Because they've ALREADY seen him pitch badly.  Fister hasn't pitched really bad, yet.  That is no guarantee he won't.  But, a continuance of a 4.3 K-rate is a SABR death-sentance, (and Doc knows this).  There is an ASSUMPTION that Fister is going to get his Ks back up into the 6s.  It may happen ... could be in 2012.  The key here is we don't KNOW anything certain with ANY of these BOR guys.
Doesn't matter -- RRS, Snell, Fister, Vargas.  They all have the same basic reality -- either too little data for comfortable assessment - *OR* -- too much contradictory data.
Snell's 2007 season was significantly better than Fister or Vargas or RRS has been (thus far) from a pure rate-stat analysis.  But, Snell's had bad results in '08 and '09.  Once upon a time, Snell *HAD* the superb control that everyone sees in Fister -- and much better 'stuff' to go with it.  It (apparently) didn't survive the transition to the majors. 
Yes, Snell has had lousy peripherals - but posted a 4.20 ERA and a 5-2 record at the end of 2009.  Why is it that Snell's peripherals drown out his success - while Fister's 4.3 K rate doesn't matter? 
The very reality that there is discussion about who 'should' go - versus who 'will' go just confirms this truth.  All four potential dumpees have very valid reasons why failure is dangerously plausible.  If you're gonna have a bunch of cheap nobody BOR guys -- you *NEED* to keep a large supply on hand, because the entire strategy is based on the concept that numbers are a much better hedge against future negative performance than blind belief in the ability to predict which one of several questionable arms is definitively going to succeed.  And if the league 'books' one -- or the magic spell ends -- you MUST have reasonable options to go to on hand.

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