Team effort

Game balls for this week:

MLB front office: for flat-out deep-sixing the Lee suspension (not shortening or softening or anything -- just poof! it's gone! -- do they ever do that?)

MLB schedule-makers: for putting Baltimore on there during the "let's-hope-we-can-tread-water-until-Lee-and-Bedard-can-pitch" period (if the Sacramento River Cats were on the schedule, we wouldn't need Lee or Bedard to pitch to them, either)

Fister and Vargas: for deciding to have their "everyone-who-is-average-has-to-be-above-average-part-of-the-time-to-make-the-math-work-...-right?-...-right??" moments also during the "let's-hope-we-can-tread-water" period (not detracting from what they've done, just being light-hearted)

Kotchman: for deciding to have a bust-out against RHP that was at least partially foreseeable, if -- as Z said all along he was doing -- you write off the post-trade "bad Kotch" periods.

Has anyone looked at the split?

Kotch vs. RHP: 36 AB, 11 H, 7 XBH, 3 HR, 3 BB, 1 K (.306/.350/.667)

Kotch vs. LHP: 10 AB, 1 H, 0 XBH, 3 BB, 3 K (.100/.308/.100)

If you look only at his career splits, they're not that extreme -- .758 vs. 704 OPS.  But during the extended periods of "good Kotch" (such as 07 and first part of 09), they were much higher -- .852 vs. .775 in 07 and .808 vs. .660 for the Braves in 09.  Another stretch of "good Kotch" (08 with LAAA) had a reverse split, but also a .338 BABIP vs. LHP which skews it.

Also: he's always walked more than struck out against RHP (even during the "bad Kotch" Atlanta period; but not the "really bad Kotch" RedSox period), and the reverse against LHP.  With the Braves in 09: 25 BB/13 K vs. RHP; 7 BB/ 15 K vs. LHP.

I said I thought Z was reasonable (if you write off the "bad Kotch" periods, which Z said they were doing when they acquired him) that Kotch could produce an .850 OPS vs. RHP, because when he is mentally on-track he does not waste ABs and can deliver the XBH when he gets his pitch (2007: 45 XBH and 46 BB vs. RHP; 6 XBH and 7 BB vs. LHP).

Looks like he's on course to do something comparable this year even as he cools off.

Comments

1

With the Fister-Vargas miracles occurring in the non-Cy month...
..............
LL noted that in 2009, Kotch saw 60 lefthand breaking balls and had 1 hit off same ... not a problemo that is going to be solved by positive outlook or supportive associates ...
The best-case scenario, as far as we can tell, still isn't going to involve hitting vs AL lefties...
But if he can slug .500+ vs RHP's, and the M's can react to his splits, I'll take it and laugh all the way to the sabr bank...

2

Lee is in the rotation, so he spends most of his time sitting on the bench anyway. If you are going to suspend him at all, it has to be for 5 games or else it won't cost him a start. That's why they erased the whole suspension, because doing it for two or three games would be pointless.

3

I think he's better against RHP than most folks expected and worse against LHP.
That's why I thought they'd spot start Sweeney at 1b, but that appears not to be.  As others have pointed out, giving Tui spot-platoon starts at 1b is difficult since if you PH for him to get Kotch back in for a favorable matchup, then you have no backup MI. 
Don't understand keeping Sweeney then not seeing if he can keep the hot bat.  Given MB's leg issues, I have a feeling we'll be doing a Langerhans-for-Sweeney swap pretty soon (unless they can pull off the Junior-DL subterfuge).  Too bad.

4
OBF's picture

is that Kotch keeps blasting away to the tune of 900 OPS against righties and takes over the fourth slot from J-Lo (who is badly in need of a couple of weeks in the bottom of the order to get his swing working).
And for Tui to start eating up the majority of 1B when facing lefties, probably hitting lower in the order.  Also you lose nothing IRT defense sense Tui is a shortstop :)
That would both keep Kotchman hitting a a good fame of mind against pitches he can handle.  It is a nice transition for Tui into 400 AB's in the bigs so he can be a starter when J-Lo is traded.  Keeps defense premium everywhere and gives a 900 OPS two headed monster at 1B (assuming of course Tui beats up on lefties like he should)!
And if those two guys can keep up a 900 OPS platoon working at first it almost renders a A-Gone trade moot.  After the AL-NL transition, and slightly worse defense, A-Gone would only be a marginal upgrade.  Then the trade cookies could go toward getting us a real DH/LF, or a good hitting AND good defense SS.  Although JAW has picked it up quite a bit on O lately.

5

Kotchman saw 1900 pitches during 2009 -- and we're going to focus on what he did against 60?!?
What was Branyan's mark in 2008 against lefties?  He hit .000/.000/.000 -- 0-for-14 with 8 whiffs.  THAT RESULT was referenced as why it was obvious that Branyan should never, ever, under any circumstance, be allowed to hit against any LHP for the rest of his natural life.
Branyan would go on to post an .802 OPS against lefties in 185 PAs.
How much is 60 pitches?  At 4 per PA - that's 15 PAs.
Branyan had barely 300 PAs against lefties for his entire 12 year career prior to Seattle. 
For his CAREER - he's 50 points light in OPS against lefties -- but we're going to ignore the career - and concentrate on 60 pitches during his worst season? 
But fine -- let's look at data to support the PRE-CONCEPTION that he's a platoon bat.  What do his BABIP splits look like:
2007 - .270-RHP; .295-LHP
2008 - .262-RHP; .297-LHP
2009 - .280-RHP; .290-LHP
2010 - .242-RHP; .143-LHP
Career: .270-RHP; .295-LHP
For his career, his avg and obp are essentially identical vs. lefties and righties.  The ENTIRE difference in lefty-righty split is ISOLATED POWER.  He slugs 50 points lighter against lefties, (while having a significantly higher BABIP -- which completely baffles me - but okay, that's what he does).
Okay - his K/BB suffers a smidge against lefties.  But his BABIP is 25 points HIGHER against lefties for his 430 PA career. 
Considering his career OPS against lefties is a bit over .700 -- and the current roster has only three players (Gutz, Ichiro and Kotch) that are currently producing better than .667, I'd say any thoughts of platooning are severely misplaced.

6

They don't throw 4 consecutive curve balls per 4 AB's for four games.  :- )
If you've got a gimme strike, you leverage it at critical moments.  The fact that Kotchman got 1 hit against LH curve balls in 2009, slugging .313 overall, shouldn't be minimized.  It speaks to a real hole in his game.
The eyes also confirm that Kotchman has one whale of a time dealing with LH hard stuff in and soft stuff away.  I don't think I've seen a competitive AB from him against lefties yet this season.  
Kotchman's ability to stick his nose into a LHP breaking pitch is an obvious question.
................
That said, Kotchman will get his chances against LHP's this year.  The book isn't closed on him at 27.  If he can show that he's competitive against LHP's, great.
 

7

The blog-o-sphere gets its undies a lot more bunched over 25-man-roster awkwardness than the Mariners do.  The M's have now carried both Griffey and Sweeney with 12-man staffs for two consecutive seasons.  Not to put too fine a point on it, the M's see this one the SSI way.  ;- )
................
If pinch-hitting were a big issue -- which of course it is not -- starting Tui at 1B would allow you to pinch-hit for Jack Wilson (or Jose Lopez) in a double-switch.  Tui moving to SS or 3B for the last couple innings.   You'd much rather hit for Wilson than for Tui.
The blog-o-sphere puts wayyyyyyyyyy too much importance on these late-game hypotheticals, and consistently overlooks the creative solutions to the problems anyway.
...................
IMHO the arguments against Sweeney and Tui get a little weird in their enthusiasm.

8

What did you see Sandy, apart from the stats?
He was able to turn on LH inside fastballs?  And stick his nose into LH breaking pitches away?
That has not been what I've seen early, not by a long shot, but you have watched him more.

9

Well, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.
60 ANYTHING out of 1900 ANYTHING is a small sample.
It's looking at a 3% sample of data -- taken specifically from the *ONLY* year where he actually played truly badly against LHPs, (.625 OPS) -- and drawing a conclusion.
It ignores the DRASTICALLY higher sample of *YEARS* of previous data which says - yes, he CAN hit LHP. 
Would it be reasonable to conclude after the 2008 season - that the then 34-year-old Ichiro (turning 35 the next season), needed to be platooned -- because in 227 PAs against LHP during 2008 that his OPS was only .678?  Who is more likely to continue swooning - the guy who is 35 or the guy who is 27?  Ichiro - with twice the LHP sample size of Kotchman's 2009 would appear to be an absolute lock for the platoon pile.
For his CAREER, Ichiro has an .825 OPS in well over 1000 PAs against lefties.  But, in 2008, that swoons by 150 points.  Would it be reasonable to conclude - based on that 2008 sample, which is DRASTICALLY larger than 60 pitches -- that Ichiro is done against lefties?
=====
And while I get that the CBs are spread out - 60 pitches is SAMPLE-SIZED at about 15 PAs. 
Branyan saw roughly 60 pitches (of a mixed variety) in 2008.  He got zero hits - and fanned 8 times. 
And saying he only got 1 hit off 60 curves - does NOT say he got 59 strikes on the others.  It is likely that he walked a few times (3?).  And it is likely he fanned a few times (4 ... 5)?  And it is likely he put the ball in play a few -- (8?) 
For all I know  - Kotchman went 1 for 8 with 3 walks on those pitches.  Saying he only got 1 hit on those pitches SOUNDS like something really, really, really bad.  It SOUNDS like he went 1 for 60.  Or, MAYBE he walked 10 times on those 60 curves, because they were out of the strike zone. 
In 2009, Russell Branyan got 108 hits -- and failed to get a hit on 1970 pitches.  Guess his year was a complete waste.
 
 

10

I have two dogs.  One is a black Lab.  The other a Chow-Shepherd mix.
The Chow-Shepherd is generally laid back - lazy -- tires easily.  Friendly (once he knows you) -- but afraid of anything new coming into his world -- even if he's met you 100 times.  He's gotta RE-learn trust every time.  That's Max.
Chewy is the black lab.  He loves EVERYBODY.  And all he wants is to be loved.  New - Old, Nice, Mean ... he doesn't care.  He wants to be friends and to be liked by everyone in the world.  But, if you raise your voice - (not at him - at ANYTHING - including the TV when UNC has just turned the ball over for the 12th time in the 1st half), he will TREMBLE as he nuzzles up beside you.  Emotionally - he simply cannot HANDLE negative waves.
The 2010 Mariners have Max and Chewy both on the roster.  Milton Bradley is Max -- afraid of everything -- his every instinct is to distrust EVERYONE.  You have to re-earn his trust on a daily basis - and when you've got it - couldn't be a more pleasant guy.  The least little thing wrong - he growls and barks and makes it very clear that you are not welcome.
They also have Chewy - Kotchman.  I will not even pretend to have scout-ish observational skills.  I couldn't tell you which pitches Chipper and Andrew like or hate.  The hot/cold zone charts would murder me. 
But, I *do* have pretty strong personality observational skills - (I score near dead center on 3 of 4 of the Myers-Briggs - which they say makes me capable of working with almost any personality around).  When Kotchman FIRST got to Atlanta, everything in his demeanor was that of a black lab who had just been scolded for having an accident.  His first month with the Braves, *I* was lost ... because he looked only slightly more comfortable at the plate than Adam Moore does at the moment.
But, by September, his demeanor changed.  A few hits fell in ... and he was gangbusters for the final 3 weeks of the season.  The ONLY player I had previously viewed with AS EXTREME a plate multi-personality was Andruw Jones - who for the entirety of his career would hit 1200 for two weeks and 500 for two weeks in random spurts.
In 2009, he BEGAN the season hitting just like the end of 2008.  He had a minor slump in May - but generally was the same hitter -- just a few extra balls finding glove instead of grass.  In June, he got hurt - he slumped a bit after returning -- standard scuffling.  In his final month - he absolutely caught fire.  He was *SEEING* the ball the way Bonds used to.  He was STALKING pitches for a month - and he CARRIED THE TEAM.  After an 11-15 June and 93 runs scored, the club would go 16-11 and score 139 in July.
Go look at the 2009 monthsly splits.  He hit .303 (.798) in April and .320 (.934) in July.  This was less than a year ago.  I've SEEN him, when he was fully engaged with his team, in top form - and doing precisely what he did back in 2007 -- and he was doing it during the 2009 season. 
And then he got shipped to Boston - where he became a part-timer - platoon bat and defensive replacement.  You want a split?  How about 13 PAs as a pinch hitter.  How many hits?  ZERO.  Two walks, three Ks - a .154 OPS (and a .000 BABIP).  Kotchman played in 39 games for Boston.  In 20 of them, he was a replacement. 
You want to get rid of Kotchman.  Platoon him.  He'll hit just like he did in Boston.  One of the reasons I want him moved up to 5th is because 5/6 is the normal break point for "good/bad" hitters on a club.  I think this sloshing him down to 7th in the order is going to do damage *IF* it is allowed to continue for any length of time.  At the moment, he's enjoying just being viewed as an INTEGRAL part of the team.  But, you leave him hitting 7th when 2-3 guys above him can't break .700 ... eventually it's gonna get to him, and he's gonna swoon badly because of it.
The thing about Kotchman is that he has got a SURREAL "eye".  Yes, he'll misread a pitch occasionally -- even Pujols does that.  He's not a HR hitter.  He's a spray hitter, more likely to hit balls in the gap than over the fence.  But, for his career, he doesn't have particularly severe splits vs. power or finesse pitchers - or LHP/RHP.  The ONLY significant split is he's vulnerable to groundball pitchers, (.673). 
Okay - I'm not a swing doctor.  He's got "his" swing.  It ain't great.  But his EYE is without question All-Star level.  But - for all his career stats - the totals are all suppressed - due to the 300 early-career struggles -- PLUS the double-dip post-trade blues.  Between those that's maybe 1/3 of his total PAs for his career.  So, 1/3 of his MLB PAs were either during 'auditioning' or 'depression'. 
I've seen "hot" batters.  And I've seen batters who are just "cruising".  The "hot" guys typically have thru-the-roof unsustainable BABIPs.  EVERYTHING is falling.  In July, 2009, when Kotch was having his .934 'career month' ... his BABIP was .303.  Kotchman's "mindset" is to be tentative UNTIL he is accepted as a quality contributor.  THEN - he gets better.
Right now -- with Seattle -- Kotchman is STILL tentative.  His eye is exactly what it has always been.  But, he's hitting UNDER his ability -- but has gotten lucky with a couple of gophers.  So, his ISO is skewed -- but his BABIP is WAAAAY too low (.225).  I completely without reservation believe - IF ALLOWED TO PLAY FULL TIME -- and in the MEAT of the lineup -- Kotchman *IS ALREADY* a .300 hitter with .850 potential.  He doesn't have to add ANYTHING to his game that has not already been demonstrated.  His eye NEVER slumps.  And the slumps he's had in his career are all either injury or trade related. 
Oh, he could scuffle for a .700 OPS for a month -- but even then he'll still have a 1:1 eye, and .320 OBP.  His leverage at the plate - his turning on the ball is NOT a function of his physical limitations.  It is dependent on his mental state.  Personally, I'd rather have Kotch hitting 3rd with Gutz in the #5 slot -- because Kotch has the EYE that can allow the speedsters to steal - and is (IMO), the most likely player outside of Ichiro on the entire roster to actually hit .300. 
 

11
Lakay's picture

I was aghast when I first saw the M's first 10 games' schedule. 7 games straight on the road and home opener right after. I believe the M's were royally screwed by that as I think they were the only visiting team on their first series that did not rest before their home opener, and longest in the road at that (7 road games in 7 days). Having the O's in the first homestand was a minor concession for that.

12

agree 100%, and exacerbating that was some mondo tough Oakland A's pitching.  After 8 games, folks were ready to bail, but it was just circumstance.
Your team is never as good as it looks vs bad teams, and vice versa...

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