.
The 1977-2016 Mariners could be compared to Navi in the Zelda video games. A little light fairy follows you everybody with helpful information like "hit B to open the door." The first time it's instructive. On the 600th door you have long sinced wished for an ACME fairy crusher.
We've been told, in the little 1977-2016 Navi dialogue box (scores), that talent isn't going to help the M's. Just because Felix Hernandez is one of the greatest Opening Day pitchers in major league history doesn't mean you, as an M's fan, are going to get a lot of sugar this morning. And whether you are a Seattle yuppie, a Colombian orphan or a Zulu chieftain, chances are you realize the M's don't go to the playoffs. In the Navi dialogue box score this morning, she yells HEY!! LISTEN!!
....
For 4 innings, the Rangers failed to even square a pitch up for a hard out, much less to hit their way safely onto base. In the 5th inning, they resorted to the obvious. The Rangers axe-bombed the M's infielders and scampered to first through the smoke.
Somewhere in the screaming and confusion, Prince Fielder thumbed a parachute over Ketel Marte's head for the Rangers' only "hit" on the day. The helicopter dropped in to blow the fumes away to find three Rangers high-fiving in the dirt behind home plate. Just that easy, a no-hitter becomes a chest-crushing loss. Philadelphia 76'ers, here we come.
Well, they say that every day in baseball, you're liable to see something you never have. And that's true: the Mariners have never lost a game in which they gave up only one hit.
....
The five walks weren't really caused by Felix being "wild." He threw 53 strikes vs. 40 balls, compared to the usual ratio of 58 vs 35. In the future we will refer to this difference as "5." The couple of extra balls was caused by exactly four things:
So what happened with these five walks? Did Felix get K.O'ed in the third? No, it took two errors in one inning -- say, THE inning in which he walked guys -- and if EITHER of those errors had not occurred, the M's win the games. So you can safely put this game in the star-crossed category.
....
Kyle Seager and Ketel Marte made those errors on balls that could not be fungo'ed any easier during infield practice. Both players "yipped" them. This was Opening Day, and like Chris Collinsworth says: There is NO WAY to practice the 3-foot putt that wins the Masters. Seager and Marte were yippy. Psychologically, this game followed the script "Division champ beats challenger."
When your brother "owns" you at ping-pong, and comes back to win 21-18 all the time, it doesn't mean you never make any good shots. And it doesn't mean the M's hitters didn't hit homers. It's just that when the Game Situation arrives, your subconscious script is to botch it.
You can rewrite that script. It's not a death sentence. But the script exists in pro sports. It's why most champions have lost for a year or two before winning it. In Dr. D's opinion, there were earmarks of a Script in this game.
Look, I'm not mad at them. Kyle Seager is a battle-hardened warrior. We report, you decide. What Dr. D saw on TV today was a team that was hoping things would go their way. Not finding a way to shape events to their advantage. You disagree, power to you, amigo.
....
Mike Montgomery got an A for his outing. After the game was over, true, but - his 93 fastball is "wild in the zone" and out of the pen, his breaking stuff can most certainly put hitters away. Four Texas Rangers got behind on him, deserved to strike out, and did in fact strike out. In this game he was a really promising #2 lefty.
....
Every game isn't Cole Hamels and the division champs. More importantly, every game isn't the one after Kevin Mather denied the job application of the scraggly old woman who showed up with a broom in her hand.
BABVA,
Dr D
Still a few starts left to built up strength, but I've never seen Felix AVERAGE under 90mph with his 4-seam in any start in any season. Felix's time as an ace may be over, but he should still manage as a top 20-30 starter for a few more seasons as long as his command and health don't leave him as well.
In Felix' case the difference between 88 and 91 on the two-seam fastball doesn't matter much, IMHO. We've seen him decline in velo and get even better as he has. An analogous case would be Jered Weaver. While his fastball was 87+ he was just as tough.
When Weaver lost his velocity in 2012 his Ks went down and his XBHs went up. His ERA was excellent in 2012, but his skillset declined from 'ace' to 'TOR'. Then since 2013 he has gradually declined each year.
The drop from 94 to 92 wasn't significant for Felix as it was offset by him becoming a better pitcher. The drop from 92 to 90 will be much more significant as his skillset is close to maxed out. It will harm the effectiveness of all his offspeed pitches.
Greg Maddux was still pretty good, IIRC, tossing the ball up there at 87. Felix is fine.
Here are his velocity charts the last three years, including yesterday. No need to fret about his becoming some type of 85 MPH twirler :- )