Although I would not be surprised to see Iwakuma bring grade A goose eggs for the foreseeable future, Iwakuma is a little bit lankier than the others. Iwakuma isn't built like Kuroda/Tanaka/Nomo. He, Darvish and Uehara belong more to the lanky physical type of Japanese pitcher.
Uehara, for all his fantasticness as a reliever, ran into a wall in MLB starting at age 34.
Although he ran a 113 ERA+ pitching in Camden, ineffectiveness and injuries basically turned him into a reliever the following year.
Uehara was also famous for ripping his hamstrings and straining his arm all the time towards the end of his NPB career.
Interestingly enough, Iwakuma left the NPB under an injury cloud too and was only rehabbed by the M's.
Although I'm much more in agreement with Taro than anything, I don't necessarily keep Kuma on the top shelf. I would consider Justin Upton for him (think of it as the Braves trading for signability reasons), and definitely anything along those lines.
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Dr. D gently, politely, and demurely suggested that we might be forced into considering, in some variations, the possibility in some universes, whether it may or may not be open to deliberation that we trade Dr. D's favorite player.
Whereupon Taro and Mojician harshly, rudely, and aggressively each filled a sock with quarters and beat him about the head and shoulders. Sometimes I can't believe this barrio.
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Taro, for those who joined recently, is an uber-analyst from Japan. He shout-boxes,
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mojician: Preach it Taro. That's some good stuff. Kuma is washed up in the same way that Jared Weaver is washed up: Not really.9 hours 53 min ago
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Taro: Iwakuma's healthy season in 2013 was worth 7 WAR according to baseball-ref as he outperformed his peripherals with RA. Unlikely hes that good again, but he should be significantly better than Cespedes, and has far more long term value to our franchise. I flat would not deal him unless someone overwhelms us.10 hours 18 min ago
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Taro: Dealing Iwakuma would be a mistake. Elite Japanese pitchers have a tendency to age REALLY well and usually give their home teams a discount (loyalty). Look at Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Its a pattern in the NPB as well. The pitchers that don't get fatally injured last forever. Ms should buy low and extend him for 3 years.10 hours 23 min ago
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Hm. Now I feel like Russell Wilson, fumbling on the first play of the game. But much like it occurs in Russell's case, Dr. D's team always seems to magically fall back onto the football.
Reducing 2,500 words to 25, my fears on WBC-san are/were
- He's a gnat's ear away from ineffectiveness (cf. Jamie Moyer)
- He's gone next year anyway (Lester-style bidding war)
- His shoulder has given way before
But Taro has a "feel" for Iwakuma's career the way you and I would have on Jamie Moyer around (say) 1998, so this stopped me short.
It would be interesting to study whether elite NPB pitchers tend to age really well. The DiceK thing sticks in the mind, but of course there has been an American pitcher or two that got hurt. In lieu of a study -- and it would be literally impossible to do one, at the moment -- we can (and will) assume that Taro's right about this point.
One thing about NPB pitchers: their mechanics are glassy-smooth and deploy much more body than arm. (Here's some stuff from Torii Hunter about their sameness.) Although Iwakuma has to throw each fastball at red line, and that red line is dropping off, well .... that was true of Moyer, also.
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Jared Weaver, that's a whale of a point. (If you just joined us, Weaver has lost -4 MPH off his fastball and he still slaughters us, all the while smirking self-importantly.) All of my objections to WBC-san would have applied across-the-board to Iwakuma, and Weaver is proving thunderously that Control + Savvy trump Deterioration of Stuff.
My sheer unadulter-ated joy in Iwakuma has been restored. Time to get up and throw 17-for-22 to a set of high school receivers.
Arigato,
Dr D
Comments
Not only an interesting second camera angle from our co-NPB Rock Star, but a Stars & Scrubs bottom line on the issue.
Good stuff.