With Cruz, we would have won the 2014 World Series.
My answer--I don't care. It's over. Had we signed him for the year, we'd still be exactly where we are now in trying to sign him longer term.
The big news today (if Nightengale is right) is that the M's would rather spend the money on Cruz than trade for another outfielder. My takeaways:
-- If it's Cruz, it means Saunders is much more likely to stay.
-- The M's are putting their money where their mouths are in terms of building the talent level and holding on to their promising resources. Felix, Cano, Kyle--now consider the added cost of Cruz and maybe an Iwakuma extension. Somewhere Geoff Baker is cowering, crying.
-- This is not just a matter of Cruz vs. Upton or Cespedes--it's a matter of playing the longer term game vs. a one year bump. Now consider we're a year out--we've not got Upton (say) or maybe Walker. No thanks.
-- Would we throw our DH lot in with one of our minor league right handed hitters? Or a rotation among current talent? Or a more modest acquisition like Delmon Young? I guess it depends on your level of patience--or more importantly, the organization's patience.
-- In the end, I think (fear?) their patience is wearing thin. They want a bopper...and may go to unwise extremes to land him--but without losing Walker or Paxton.
.
The Ugly
wil*ly nil*ly adv or adj: 1. In a careless and unplanned way. 2. In a haphazard or spontaneous manner. First known use A.D. 1608, will I nil I, or will ye nil ye, or will he nil he
We were all taken aback to find that the 2013 Mariners passed on Nelson Cruz for 1 year, $8M. By "we" I mean "you," of course. I had grokked the truth from the start. I mean it in the humblest possible way.
We knew all the way along that [MONTHS OF MAN-HOURS PILING SPREADSHEETS TO THE SKY] can still equal [WILLY NILLY]. Why in the world do you negotiate with a player, reach an agreement, and then have some stockholder THEN decide that we should have never opened conversation.
And how many terms like that are there, really, that can be used as adverb or adjective, as you please. "The Mariners' stockholders ran willy-nilly down the corridors arriving at their willy-nilly decision to chop-block Zduriencik's 108 RBI and shed the willy-nilly American League playoff tournament." Try making that sentence work with "cattywampus," babe. As you know, baseball blogging is more art than science.
.
The Bad
1. As Cool Papa points out, this time 'round we are coughing up a 1st-round comp pick on this dude.
2. We are talking about 4 years, for a Richie Sexson-ish cartelua, who turns 35 during the first year of his contract. Mo' offered this wisdom at no additional charge.
True:
- At $65M or so, you're really paying for 3 years and the 4th year is gravy
- Cruz' skill trendlines couldn't be more stable
- Very reasonable comps include Jayson Werth, Josh Hamilton, and Raul Ibanez (good players well past 30)
But yeah. One year on, a Nelson Cruz contract no longer carries the dulcet melodic, zen-centered harmonics it promised in 2013. The announcement in 2014, though we would READ it on paper, sorry, on our smartphone LCD's, would tend more towards high-pitched, razored and eardrum-piercing.
.
The Good
[Cruz and Taijuan and Taylor and the fillings out of our blinkin' teeth], vs [Justin Upton]?
As MLB Trade Rumors points out, right hand power is easy to come by neither (1) on smartphone LCD's nor (2) on the real American League grass. If you want free agent RBI's, here was the list when we started the winter:
- Victor Martinez
- Hanley Ramirez
- Pablo Panda
- Russell Martin
- Nelson Cruz
- Yazmanyie Tomas (which of these things is not like the others)
And as we stand here today, the current list is:
- Nelson Cruz
- Yazmanyie Tomas (which of these things is not like the others)
As you know, we live to serve. Here is the list of 50 best free agents. Matt Kemp isn't on it. Neither is any other offensive player you want, except Cruz and Tomas. Like Yogi sez, it's getting late early.
.......
One good amigo objected, "Cruz has only hit 30 homers twice." Which was the argument we had 12.00 months ago. Cruz' per-162 numbers are like a .500 slugging average or something. Really, click this link and skim down to the per-162 line.
The chances of a "per 162" are enhanced by the fact that Cruz will now cheerfully bat as DH when his legs are actually, before his legs start aching, so that he doesn't pop a frazzled hammy trying to beat out a grounder. Trust an old man about how this P.T. sequence works.
Another free light bulb, just rubbernecking it on the shoulder of the road driving by: never, ever, ever take a player's career road numbers and assume that's the "real" Joe Shlabotnik. The "why" of that is a separate billable article. For now, look up Nelson Cruz, Ex Ranger's road slugging average last year (.576, was it?) and just stay focused on the next paragraph.
We don't say that Nelson Cruz is an SSI Best Bet. But as fans, if the M's went with the Better Late Than Never option ..... we could (1) ignore the cash considerations, (2) rejoice in the 100'ish RBI, (2a) remember just how close the M's were in 2014, and (3) rejoice in Taijuan Walker's emergence as a young TOR starter.
Hey, it says here that Taijuan is a half-pitch away from a 2+ ERA and if so, he'll be a mortal lock to beat out Felix for the Cy Young.
.........
Assuming you don't buy any of that, which Dr. D certainly doesn't, just bask with him in a +100 runs* team that is Terminator-focused on getting a middle of the order.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Yes Cruz is the best option left... and it is a BIG shame that we are here again. Maybe NEXT year Jack will be one of the first 3 GM's to act.
However, I do not want him on a 4 year deal. I just do not trust the data that says he will age well. Make him take the risk.
To get less than 4 years, I am all for the Mariners OVER paying in the short term. Ideally, I would sign Cruz to a two year - $35M deal with two or three VESTING options based on games played ALL at $20M each.
If this does not work, I would offer something similar to Melky. He may not have the power or RBI history, but I like his OBP going forward.
While I would have Yasmany higher on my list, I doubt the Mariners are really even considering him unfortunately.
Jack has always - ALWAYS - been able to add talent in the draft. When you start with Ben Sheets and work your way through Corey Hart, JJ Hardy, Fielder, Wilhelmsen, Weeks, Gallardo, Braun, Brantley, Lucroy, Lawrie, Seager, Walker, Paxton, Zunino, Taylor, Miller, our hordes of essentially-free bullpen arms and on to the dudes currently stocking our minors... He hits on one or two very good pros EVERY YEAR. Heck, I left Ackley off the list but he's got 9 career WAR before even getting to Arbitration. He could be a 20+ WAR player before he's 30 if someone moves him back to second base.
When the risk of adding a player is compounded by the fact that the guy you're trading is probably gonna be a good player, you need to get the trade right. It might be easier to simply wait a year or two on DJ and Kivlehan and
The problem with that scenario is that you waste your chance at a World Series, which we did this year by not retaining Morse, or adding Cruz, or trading for the right DH, or, or, or...
When you're CLOSE - and make no mistake, we are close - you can't blow these Cy Young seasons when the core members of the team are healthy and productive. You have to strike when those irons are hot. So if you can GET a Napoli out of Boston without giving up one of your 5 best prospects/young players, then you should probably do it. If you insist on having placeholders because you don't want to pay the prospect price for giants, at least get good placeholders. We have plenty of secondary and tertiary prospects to give up, and they really can't all play here.
As Doc and I have been saying for years: this season counts too, not just your dreamed-of future seasons where everything lines up according to the stars, karma and the color-by-numbers book.
The Giants turned a one-game playoff into a World Series title a few years ago, and built a semi-dynasty off of that. We missed by ONE game.
Don't do that again. If you can draft good players, then keep doing it - but don't do it to the exclusion of wins this year. You can build for the future and win now. Chuck Armstrong promised me so back in 2004 when he mocked the Indians and their rebuilding plans.
I'm ready to see it in action, sir.
Tom Brady's 3, vs 4, vs 5, vs ? Super Bowls don't matter? Pat Gillick's three championship rings aren't part of the fabric of baseball history?
Ken Griffey Jr. and Charles Barkley wouldn't like to talk about the year they won it? :- )
........
And you're aware of the club option for Cruz we'd be sitting on, no? Would you take him right now, 1 year, $9M?
But I see the point you're making. The ball is on the 23-yard-line now, and you might as well get about the task of calling the play that meets the needs of the position.
Which is probably Cruz :: laughs ::
Everything lined up that time ...
........
Nothin' really lined up in 1995. But I remember a 20-minute standing ovation for a loss ...
Hardly one to make up excuses for Jay-Z where they don't exist , still:
It woulda taken what, 4 / $90M for a 36-year-old DH who OPS's 125 ? Nada
Hanley Ramirez probably never had any interest in us (am willing to assume)
Panda slugged .415 the last two years, and insisted on a hitter's park
Russell Martin?!
It ain't over out there
For 2015 I don't blame 'em at all. YET. Good stuff though TR :- )
After I poured him his third tall scotch (I have decently rich scotch tastes so Z wouldn't turn away tumbler #3), my discussion with Z would look like this:
Me: "Russell Bleeepin' Martin? For a Third World country national debt? Had you forgotten about our own Zhunnie (the scotch effect there)?"
Z: "I have no clue what I was thinking. I think I panicked for just a bit. Thank goodnesh (the nector again) that didn't work out, eh?"
Me: "Darn tootin'!"
Z: (Rattling the ice in his glass) Thish is good schtuff. For another glashfull I will tell you how I almost swapped Kivlehan, Deej and Paxton for the Upton Bros!"
At that point I chuck my glash at him and ask if Tony LaRussa is available.
OK, it wouldn't go quite that way. But I wish it would go some way in terms of getting a bat, PRONTO. There is a huge advantage to getting in early with one guy (any guy, really) and then watching the chips fall around you and picking up the next piece at a bargain price.
Right now we're doomed to thinking about the 4th expensive year of a Cruz contract, giving up tons for one Upton year, trying to squeeze Gattis out of Atlanta, determining if LA "really" wants to trade Kemp, or playing with Boston's surplus of OF-types.
I suppose we could fall back to Melky, but you lose the QO pick and he's not much of a defender in LF. You would get a heck of a lead-off hitter, however. I could actually live with him (as a fallback....as he seems to be with every team)....if we had Gattis. But we're not paying $12-14M (or so) for Melky if we're paying big for Kemp, for example.
More and more I'm falling back on going really big for Gattis. He's ISO'ed .237 and .230 the last two years, comparable to Cruz's .200, .240, .254 over the last 3 seasons, and he especially wails on lefties. His average true distance HR has been 408 (Top 10 in the game) and 399 ft, which equaled Cruz in '13 and was just 3 ft behind in '14. Matt will like those numbers and their ability to translate to Safeco.
So I'm making the bullrush with Atlanta over Evan Gattis. I'm excluding Kivlehan/Deej and telling them to take any bat in the minors that I have (Wilson, too...even my beloved Pizzano), to start with, then add any MiLB arm---then add Hicks and see if that gets us there. That kind of Chinese Restaurant menu may get it done. Or give 'em Ackley and Wilson. Something like that.
Gattis is the key for us. He's free (salary-wise) (so we could get another bat if it fell into our lap), he creams the ball, AND his ability to play behind the plate gives you some flexability (although I would just stick him in LF 130 times a year).
So if I'm pouring scotches with Z, I'm not pouring him another until he gets Gattis.
If we were "really" interested in Kemp and if LA was "really" going to let him go, we would have had him a long time ago. Upton is prohibitively expensive for a one year guy. Boston's going large this year so Napoli is too important to them. Cruz's 4th year is spooky. You get it.
I'm still a big Craig fan and Boston would move him (Matt just cringed) but the cheap guy in Boston is Nava. Over the last two years he's got on-base at a .390 clip vs. RHP. OK...he hit's lefties not at all. But he's a throw-in guy in a deal with Boston and if we lose Ackley/Saunders in other deals he would be nice to have. San Diego and Texas are interested in Saunders. What do they have we lust for? (I would much prefer we keep Saunders than Ackley)
If Iwakuma is not going to resign with us then I'm not adverse to trading him. I would swap his single year for a bat if that's what it took. If I do that then I'm trying to sign a guy like Maeda or Liriano or Hammel for 3 years. OK, I understand that you may get him to stay after the year, but heck...you might just buy him back after this year even if you trade him. But if I get Gattis, I don't need to sell 'Kuma for a bat. That's a Win-Win.
I can, however, get a bat with Fernando, sending him to Boston. In the blink of an eye......
So: Get Gattis. Move Fernando for Craig (or Cespedes if you must) and then I'm a very happy camper. You've added no significant cost so you can buy a very nice arm.
But I wander from my main point. Go get Gattis for Thanksgiving. Then be thankful. That's the place to start. Let's do it now.
Gattis as an M. Make it so Zheee....
Darn scotch....
And you do realize that after you stopped intentionally slurring your speech, you then unintentionally slurred your speech? you could look it up.
.......
This paragraph
++
Right now we're doomed to thinking about the 4th expensive year of a Cruz contract, giving up tons for one Upton year, trying to squeeze Gattis out of Atlanta, determining if LA "really" wants to trade Kemp, or playing with Boston's surplus of OF-types. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/155518#comment-155518 ++
Ish depressive.
........
Gattis, or just hoping that one of our kids becomes Gattis, looks ever more attrackive after the third "tumbler" (?!).
What is your take however Moe, on my/Gordon's wacky idea of just throwing in an extra Chris Taylor to get a Matt Kemp done? I think Jay-Z did that on Adrian Gonzalez once.
Seriously, I don't know why this doesn't happen more. Okay, Taylor, Saunders, Leone, and Sucre aren't enough? How about Kivlehan and Erasmo too? There's a reason it doesn't, but I don't know what it is. If you haven't sobered up enough to answer, maybe I'll ask Bill.
Bill's perspective will be fairly Gospel, as always......
But there is a point or two where Kemp becomes prohibitively expensive.
The first point occurs if LA doesn't pony up some subsidy. If they are really going to trade him then I think it unlikely they won't help cover some of the yearly cost.
The second point occurs when they demand too much for their man. Of our swapable bat-assets, there are 5 that I'm not trading out: Miller/Taylor/Kivlehan/Peterson and (of course) Seager. Everybody else is very swapable, which assumes than Cano isn't "everybody else." Zunino, too. I am convinced that Pizzano is a .290-.360-.430 type MLB hitter. I don't know if the M's are believers, however. I think he probably has long-term value in Seattle that is equal to Peterson. But I would trade him for Gattis. I'm in a bit of a hurry. 6-1 is fine by me for Kemp. But if they are all kiddies then we need the subsidy. If we trade Ackley for him, the LA pitch-in is less, because Ackley starts costing millions in a year.
But I'm pretty sure that Gattis gets us 95% of Kemp for 5% of the (yearly) price. OK, he probably costs more up front, but we have kiddie bats that we can't use all of. Atlanta is a good place for them.
That's the Gattis magic for me. Even if you get Kemp and $5M per, you're likely done in the bat aquisition department. Gattis keeps everything open.
Not many teams will go to Atlanta and say, "Name your MiLB price!" That makes us different.........and tempting.
Everybody makes the same basic offer for Kemp.
Get Gattis.
BTW: Bought a bottle of Monkey Shoulders Scotch for my dad today. It's not a single malt, but a blend of three of them. Very nice! At less than $30 per (if that is your thing) is a fair and smooth/yummy bargain.
McMoe