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5.82 RUNS PER GAME
For those who haven't looked directly at the sun, fearing for their retinas, the 2016 Red Sox are spraying out runs like a snow machine:
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| Master Blaster |
Age |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS+ |
Comparable Player |
| D. Ortiz, DH |
40 |
.344 |
.423 |
.715 |
194 |
Lou Gehrig |
| X. Bogaerts, SS |
23 |
.352 |
.401 |
.513 |
141 |
Nomar Garciaparra |
| J. Bradley, CF |
26 |
.305 |
.382 |
.573 |
149 |
Fred Lynn's rookie year |
| M. Betts, RF |
23 |
.288 |
.338 |
.516 |
122 |
Nelson Cruz, Texas |
| D. Pedroia |
32 |
.312 |
.372 |
.471 |
122 |
Dustin Pedroia |
| T. Shaw, 3B |
26 |
.270 |
.336 |
.456 |
108 |
Kyle Seager |
| C. Young, part time |
32 |
.286 |
.353 |
.562 |
138 |
Dae-Ho Lee |
.
Not counting Hanley Ramirez' 94 OPS+. The teamwide OPS+ is 119. If I had the above historical comps, I think I'd line them up:
1 Fred Lynn ROY
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Lou Gehrig
4 Nomar Garciaparra MVP candidate
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Kyle Seager
7 Dae-Ho Lee
Not the best time to call up a Rainier to face them. And we're missing Zeus and King Felix for this one ...
....
So, why are the Sox "only" 37-28? They've had six terrible starts from Joe Kelly and ten from Clay Buccholz. David Price, whose component stats are great as always, has un-lucked into his 4.52 ERA. But their Pythag points to a 40-25 record; they're several wins underneath their bases gained and bases lost. We and Boston might be the two clearly elite teams by the time September rolls around.
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4.55 RUNS PER GAME COUGHED UP
Conveniently, James had given us a state-of-the-art grok on Boston's rotation. Flyingfish, one of James' bete noirs in the Hey Bill area, had given his daily quibble:
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Hey, Bill, there have been some questions here about "back-of-the-rotation" starters, and comments about whether a starter is a #1 or a #3 or some other number. Can you explain why it matters? What difference does it make in practice whether you call Rick Porcello, for example, a #2 or a #3? I think this is different from the question of why so many people say that every team needs an ace. Obviously, it's great to have someone who can win 20 games a year and big games in the post-season, but it seems the people who talk about the importance of an ace are saying more than that. They said it especially about the Red Sox last year, and the Sox's pitching was indeed bad, but this year, WITH an ace, the staff ERA is even worse. So could you explain this one too?
Asked by: flyingfish
Answered: 6/4/2016
We have a high ERA, but we're in first place because we have an ace. That's why it makes a difference.
No, seriously, if it doesn't matter to YOU, then it doesn't matter to you. We're always trying to organize our thinking about the teams. This is a method that has evolved to help people organize their thinking. In practical terms, people in my profession are trying to create order out of the relative chaos of constantly changing rosters. When we acquire a pitcher, we try to figure out where he fits. Let's say he was 12-12 last year with a 3.89 ERA. . .where does that fit into our picture? Obviously we're not counting on him to be our #1, but are we counting on him to be our #2--which means that we expect him to be BETTER this year than he was last year--or are we expecting him to be our #3, which means that we think that what's there is just all that is there.
When we think about the team, we need to "see" the holes; we need to spot the holes. OK, at this point we have a #1 starter (Price) and a #2 (Porcello), and Wright is pitching great, so he's our #3, and Rodriguez had a decent first start returning from an injury, so he's pencilled in at #4, and we're hoping he'll move up. . .we just need to find a fifth starter; Kelly or Buchholz or Owens or somebody has to step up. Obviously we shift these things all the time; Wright started the year as the #5, and now he's #3. But we have to communicate with one another about expectations, realistic expectations, hopes. . . .we have to take a constant inventory of what we have and what we need. This is the language in which it is done. It isn't optional to me whether I use it or not; this is the language of the game.
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MATCHUPS? OH NOOOOoooooo ...
This weekend it will be
- WBC-san vs Roenis Elias, LHP (just promoted)
- Some AAA scrub vs #2 Rick Porcello, RHP
- Taijuan vs #1 David Price, LHP
Taking two of these three would be a majestic accomplishment. On the plus side, the M's "control the zone" approach could pay dividends against Elias in the first game. Let's hope WBC-san is getting bite on his shuuto and ... Hurry back, Felix.
Enjoy,
Dr D
