2016 draft - first impressions
Gordon's musings, so take them with a grain of salt

The Day 1 and 2 thoughts were chats, and the rest just put to paper so I have reference for myself for later so I can see what I missed.  Take them for what they're worth, and I hope you find something interesting if it scratches an itch.  This is the most baseball-related activity I've done all year.

Day 1:
Pick 1: Kyle Lewis. BA player of the year 2016.  .535 OBP, .395 BA. 2nd most walks in the nation. Not sure where the undeveloped power swing rap comes from. Putting Lewis with Edgar Martinez may be the greatest thing that could have ever happened to the kid. Power is his game, and he's pretty good everywhere else. What I like about his swing is the authority with which he moves the bat. The guy hits like he expects great things every time. Think Justin Upton as a comp. Fringe center fielder. If he doesn't hit his highs, think Michael Saunders type: big and rangy, can park one when he gets it, but just doesn't quite put it together (though he's certainly putting it together this year).

The stance is different (collapsed vs open) but he's got some of that Andre Dawson "I'm gonna muscle where I want" thing going on with his swing. It's not pure, but it is... aggressive. Purposeful. The Hawk could hit a little. I could probably live with him hitting like Dawson. ;)

Nice interview with him. Wants to stay in center, comps himself to Adam Jones, and picked Mercer partly for academics. If you get a chance to find a video interview with him, do. He's an intelligent kid. I like the pick. Now we just need to develop him, since that's where our drafting always falls apart with hitters.

Callis on MLB.com about Lewis: "What a steal for the Mariners. If I owned the No. 1 pick in this draft, I would have taken Lewis there. I think it's the best combination of ceiling and floor in this draft. Even if he doesn't stay in center field, that power profiles so well on the corner. I think the concerns about quality of competition he faced at Mercer are overblown, because what more could this guy do? He stood out in the Cape Cod League -- a showcase for top college prospects -- and he dominated the Southern Conference the last two years. I'm all in."

He's also a Mariners fan, apparently, since he was wearing a Seattle hat 6 months ago and has multiple photographs in Ms gear. He'll love meeting Griffey. 

2nd Rounder: Joe Rizzo. Really fond of this pick too. Downside: the DJ Peterson faceplant (although DJ is showing signs of life over the last month thankfully). Upside: Lefty Josh Donaldson. He's a very Oakland player, actually, if Oakland drafted teen bats. I was looking at Benson instead of Lewis (since I didn't think Lewis would get to us) but both guys are really nice additions to the farm's hitters. We've got to restock that part of the system, and so far this is a pretty bang up job based on first-returns.

Rizzo is... husky. He's not built like a gazelle but he can hit and his swing is both a line-drive and a power swing driven by that bull chest. Clean power for a teen. The Ms are gonna have to work with him to keep him at third. I'm fine with getting the bat and finding out where to play it later, even if that's as a 5'10 outfielder.  Rizzo's a bull in a china shop, but I'm okay with that. Sometimes you want your teenage dirtbag hitters built like they're farm kids who want to wrestle steers. He says he loves baseball more than anything, and that brings a smile to my face.  The fact that he likes spending hours a day in the batting cage should make him a good fit with Edgar's teaching too. IMO that's one of the most important gifts we can give those kids: a hall-of-fame-level hitter to guide them through the rapids. But at least we have two talented hitters to buoy the system.

I like Lewis better than any first-round hitter since Ackley (since I thought Ackley was going to be Mark Grace - my bad). I like Rizzo as well, but then I don't mind "unathletic" third basemen (read: not waterbugs) who can really hit. If he turns into Nick Swisher as an OF/1B there are worse things. If he stays at third, even better. Just turn them into hitters first and THEN worry about whether Lewis can stay in center or Rizzo at third. We haven't had too many successful hitters come up through the system in the last two decades at any position.

If they can hit, we'll find a way to play em. That's all I ask.

Day 2:

Third Rounder: Brison Brigman. Played 2B last year as a freshman since first-round pick Holder. Moved to SS this year, though he's viewed as a bit of a tweener 2B/SS right now. Drafted as a sophomore so we're gonna have to throw a ton of money his way to keep him from going back (since he'll still have leverage next year). I expect to see us drafting quite a few seniors with the rest of the top-10 to afford our first 3 picks.

Bryson's swing is quite nice, but he doesn't walk a lot or hit for much power (though he can ride one if he gets one). Looking for the next Ketel Marte in a way. His swing is simple and interesting, and he could have pursued a pro hockey career if he'd wanted. Quality athlete and looks like a 2B who can flash if SS doesn't work out for him. "Only guy to win 3 championships playing for USA baseball" is an interesting distinction. The guy just wears out a baseball to all fields. I like his upside - just hope for a waterbug tablesetter rather than a thumper.

Round 4, Thomas Burrows, LHB from Alabama. He's a Junior, actually, so we're not starting the senior crunch just yet. Pen arm, classic Ms ploy in this draft area (Carson Smith, Ryan Horstman, Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps) so apparently that hasn't changed. Nothing wrong with a flame-throwing lefty on the fast track as a bullpen ace.

Round 5: Donovan Walton is a smallish senior SS, who is a good defender and a slap-hitter with a pretty good college eye. He's not really great at anything, doesn't project for power because of his size and swing, and is gonna get stiffed by the Mariners because he's a senior. Just throw him on the middle-infield pile. We draft a new SS or two every year in the first 10 rounds. One of these days one of those guys has to turn into something useful, right?

Round 6: The next arm is a D-II school arm by the name of Brandon Miller. That's how we usually do it, with the Dan Altavillas and the Grady Woods of the world. Trying to get small school value picks early. He demolished the Cape Cod League after being the ace of his team. His former teammate and co-ace Chris Murphy was drafted in the 24th round last year and is struggling to get Ks in the MWL, but hopefully Brandon's 27-to-1 K:BB ratio in the Cape means his stuff has more impact against wood-swinging pros. Low 90s heat, slider, curve, change-in-progress. We'll see what happens in the MWL, and whether they want him to start or pen it.

Round 7: And back-to-back with Division 2 pitchers. Here's Matt Festa, a redshirt RH senior who won some nice awards in D-II and who like Brandon Miller doesn't walk anybody and strikes out quite a few. He throws a 90 mph sinker and has a decent slider, apparently. He'll get bus fair to show up for us in the minors, essentially, but I'm not sure how he fits into the future. Money savings and a guy on a 6th-starter / longman path toward the bigs.

Round 8: Nick Zammarelli, 2B/3B from Elon. He's been playing third but could pull a Rendon and slide to second if required. If only he would hit like Rendon can, that would be all right. Zammarelli hit very well his junior year, much better then his first 2 college seasons. Found his stroke to the alleys and snagged far more doubles. He can clear a wall as well, and his batting eye is okay too. Was a Cape Cod all-star (though why I'm not entirely sure) but he seemed to make strides in college this year. Could be a nice farm bat for us looking for a utility role.

Round 9: Picked up a senior catcher to help those young arms, Jason Goldstein. His offense is pretty good, his defense and arm were voted the best in the Big-10, his staffs at Illinois have been great, the guy went back for his degree in Industrial Engineering... that's a good system add for a senior catcher. Even if he doesn't make the bigs he can have a large impact on our future pitchers. I really like that pick, actually.

Round 10: David Greer is an interesting way to wrap up. He's a real hitter. Played all over the infield and on a corner in college, didn't get much playing time as a freshman and had to wait for an injury to the starting 3B to get on the radar. Has a plus arm but might not have the glove for third, and played a lot of first this year. Heck, he threw a couple of innings of shutout ball while going 3-for-6 at the plate in order to help save the pen in one game this year. He got the win. Greer's a Junior, and someone I'd like to add. Might only be Proscia or top out at Romero, but that's a good bet to take with a 10th rounder. Nice pick.

All around I give the first two days a really high grade. Started off with two really good picks IMO with Lewis and Rizzo, a good call in baseball rat Brigman for SS/2B, a potentially quick-moving pen lefty in Burrows and a small-schooler Miller to help the minor league arms. Zammarelli might be a one-year spike or just have had his breakthrough, but if his average comes up he could be quite interesting, and Greer is another corner infield bat that could be a gem. And I like the catcher Goldstein too. The only guys I'm completely indifferent to, Walton and Festa, should come cheap and help us afford the rest - which is half the reason they were chosen. I like it so far.


Day 3 Mariners 2016

11: Michael Koval - Three time D-II All-American, Ks aren't what you'd think they should be but the results are there and doesn't give up extra base hits. RH fastball/slider guy, likely pen deployment maybe as a long man.

12: Tim Viehoff - Division II lefty fastballer, good shot at a pen arm with that southpaw arsenal (91-93 as a starter, change and slider).

13: Reggie McClain - pitcher dislocated his shoulder in HS, bounced from CC to Missouri, developed a good slider and walked 0.8 per 9 while striking out over 8 per this year. RH 88-91 heat, also has a good changeup.

14: Kyle Davis - RH 4-pitch college senior, worked through leg injuries as a junior, healthy this year heading up the USC rotation but still not very impressive at any particular thing.

15: Danny Garcia - Even less impressive than Kyle Davis this year, striking out fewer than 5 per. Better last year, has a better chance of being a pen arm as a lefty. Not a lot of juice to squeeze here.

16: Lyle Lin - prep catcher / pitcher from Taiwan, been in the States for just 3 years, can really swing a wood bat even as a teen and has that high, long leg drive as a pitcher with the pause at the top. Really interesting selection with a lot of good raw material to work with, and since he now follows every Mariners twitter he could find, I assume he'll sign.

17: Dimas Ojeda - he's a 6'1 first baseman (that we drafted as a LF) who hit for a high average at a community college. Ya got me.

18: Robert Dugger - crafy RH changeup guy whose fastball as a starter is high-80s and has one year of D.1 experience. Not a starter that year at TT so might have found more velo in the pen. Looks very, very average.

19: DeAires Moses - 5'9 CF tablesetter. We scouted him in HS and followed him to JuCo apparently. Fast guy, quick hands, slap hitter and bunter only who lets his speed do the work. Doesn't look like much now, but he doesn't hate walks so I don't hate him.

20: Eric Filia - missed a year of college with shoulder surgery and another due to academic suspension (plagarism) so he's a 5th year senior. Walked twice as much as he struck out this last season, doesn't have much power to speak of and his average (under .300) isn't great for college even though everyone raves about his hitting. With a batting eye like that I'm sure Gar can find something to work with, though. Just a corner OF, which causes issues with the lack of power (unless he puts that batting eye to use like Gar).

This is funny though (from baseball draft report): "I’ve lumped David Greer and Eric Filia together because both guys can really, really hit. I think both guys can work themselves up the minor league ladder based on the strength of their hit tool (plate discipline included) alone. Defensive questions for each hitter put a cap on their respective ceilings (Greer intrigues me defensively with his plus arm and experience at 1B, 2B, 3B, and in the OF; Filia seems like left field or first base all the way), but, man, can they both hit."

We drafted both guys.

21: Austin Grebeck - like Eric Filia if Eric was significantly worse at everything. He does play CF, though. But really: the guy had 9 XBHs in 200 ABs and bats .250 for his college career. What are we gonna do with that?

22: Jansiel Rivera is a LH athletic freak who's built like a ballplayer and right now plays CF. I can't find any footage of him actually playing baseball but he looks great in a batting cage. The Ms had him in for a workout. He's apparently all raw upside, but I'm happy to have one of those toolsy kids.

23: Jack Anderson: submarine righty, total pen arm. Hard to hit him, but his Ks and walks are still in progress as he fine-tunes that weird delivery for optimal results.

24: Trey Griffey. Yes, that Griffey. Junior's kid. Drafted for fun (24th round was no accident) and to put it in the books even though the Third is a football player. Legacy picks or symbolic ones in a 40 round draft are fine.

25: Ryan Fucci: RH OF from the Horizon League who's almost 24. Decent power, eye is unimpressive for the level of college competetion, walks a little. Looks like Just A Guy, but the injury that took him from Western Kentucy to a Juco to Wright State might have had an effect. Best of luck to him.

26: Elliot Surrey: Lefty junkballer who tops out in the mid-80s. Unless you're Jamie Moyer, that's not good. Ballsy pitcher, but we'll see if that's enough. I've loved me some control artists before, though. He should be fine til he gets to AA - that's where guys without an out pitch tend to detonate. We'll see then.

27: Paul Covelle. RH from Franklin Pierce. Baseball America ranked him above Tim Viehoff in their draft preview. His ERA was around 2 this year and he struck out 7 per 9 in relief, but I agree with the Ms on this one: harder to be a RH reliever.

28: Nathan Bannister. Senior RH who blossomed in his last year in college as a full-time starter. His team had him throw 200 pitches over a weekend to pitch them deeper into the college playoffs. He spent last summer getting into shape and found better velocity and the ability to go deeper into games. He was practically unhittable this year. He moved to the third base side of the rubber to help rough up righties and uses 4 pitches. Might be a senior with upside to get in the pros - if his arm stays attached til then.

29: Steven Ridings: The Ms are really working the small colleges now. Division III RH with low-90s heat, potential wipeout slider and a change with good movement. Ridings obliterated the competition, but the competition wasn't very good. Another interesting pen arm.

30: Tyler Duncan - There's our Canadian! We draft one every year, and this year it's Duncan. One of those raw 5-tool guys like Saunders, he's from BC. We might or might not be able to buy him out of college but it's a nice thought, and a good pick at #30. e says his goal is to get a professional contract. Hopefully we have enough money to buy him out of an Oregon commitment. His dream is to play pro ball close to home, though - even named Seattle as a dream. Go lock him up.

31: Lincoln Henzman - Draft eligible sophomore, so we don't have leverage. He struck out 10+ per 9 this year at Louisville, but got hit way too much. He's a pen arm after HS Tommy John surgery, and wasn't the closer either, but he's well into the 90s so the arm is fine. Doubt he signs.

32: Kenyon Yovan - this is the part of the draft where you take people who will probably never sign, just in case. Yovan is a RH prep pitcher with strong size, 90-95 in velocity and a curve with serious bite. He's another Orgeon commit and he's a Northwest kid, but it's probably about recognition (a weird thing where you draft a kid to show respect) than about getting him to sign. It'd be a really good sign, though.

33: Morgan McCullough: LH SS from West Seattle HS, so this is the same thing as Kenyon (and probably Duncan as well). Drafting really good local-ish kids to show we saw them play. If we signed even one of em I'd be pretty happy. Morgan is a 5'8 fireplug guy. Built more like Kyle Seager, and looks like he'll move to 2nd. But a nice MIF prep kid and local product.

34: David Ellingson's a RH Junior reliever for Georgetown. His control isn't great and his Ks aren't that high, but he's hard to hit and he was good out of the pen in the Cape Cod last summer. He's just a Junior so he could go back. 50//50 on this one.

35: Will Ethridge: 88-92 mph sinker / slider prep kid, and an improving changeup. I like his armslot for his sinker - it's not over the top but it lets him get sink and run on it. We'd have to pay him a lot to skip college because he's probably a top-5-round guy if his stuff takes the expected leap as he matures, so I'm not expecting to sign him.

36: Joe Venturino: A senior 2B and another DIII guy. We like our tiny school All-Americans. Not a lot to say; again, pretty dominating where he was, but senior hitters from tiny schools aren't usually who you put your money on. A cheap MIF add though and you never know.

37: Eli Wilson: a prep catcher from Seattle (of course, since he's Dan kid) who's committed to the U of Minnesota. I expect him to get there, just another recognition pick for a former M. He has more developing to do and there are other players drafted 30+ that we'd try to buy out first. It's still nice.

38: James Reilly: a non-local prep arm (he's from New York). Doesn't have a huge arm yet (though he did at least hit 92 this year in a drill), is still a rail at 6'2 and is going to James Madison.

39: Camryn Williams: He's a well-put-together prep SS who has a highlight video put together by what I assume is his mom and set to "Superbad" by James Brown. I want him in an Ms uniform now.   Sadly, the big-armed shortstop who likes to collapse down to one knee when he swings for the fences is likely college-bound as well, though it is Dallas Baptist that he's committed to.

40: Adley Rutschman: prep catcher signed to Orgeon State, so another NW kid. He was a running back and linebacker in high school who broke the Oregon state record by kicking a 63 yard field goal too - the kid's an athlete and was the Gatorade baseball POY for Oregon as well (over our other pick Yovan). He can also pitch. Wish we could sign ya, kid!

Top 10 rankings:
Hot: #1 Lewis
Very Warm: #2 Rizzo, #3 Brigman, #10 Greer
Warm: #4 Burrows, #6 Miller, #8 Zammarelli
Lukewarm: #7 Festa, #9 Goldstein (as a pro prospect, I love him for the system catcher role)
Cool: #5 Walton

11-20 rankings:

Very Warm: #16 Lin
Warm: #12 Viehoff, #19 Moses, #20 Fillia
Lukewarm: #11 Koval, #14 Kyle Davis, #13 McClain, #18 Dugger
Cool: #15 Garcia, #17 Ojeda

21-30 rankings:

Very Warm: #30 Duncan
Warm: #22 Rivera, #28 Bannister, #29 Ridings
Lukewarm: #23 Anderson, #25 Fucci, #26 Surrey, #27 Covelle
Cool: #21 Grabeck, #24 Griffey (as a baseball player)

31-40:

Hot: #32 Yovan (never signing him)
Very Warm (and we're never signing these guys either): #31 Henzman, #33 McCullough, #35 Ethridge, #39 Williams, #40 Rutschman
Warm: #37 Wilson, #38 Reilly
Lukewarm: #34 Ellingson, #36 Venturino

Final First Impressions:
1) I loved what the Ms did early. They took a few really nice hitters in the first 10 picks, snagged a couple of pen arms and spaced their money out (in theory) to allow them to actually sign everyone they drafted. Lewis has already signed, which is great news. I liked a lot of this talent, moreso than most years for Seattle, and it should all be on the farm shortly.

2) I was not overly impressed with any of the arms we got before Yovan at 32, and I don't think we can sign Yovan. No TOR guys, no young arms with growth potential, just a couple of small school arms we're hoping can fill out into BOR arms or bullpen contributors. We apparently felt there was a lack of college scrub arms for emergencies in the system and went about getting that fixed.

3) I really hope we can sign even a couple of the teens drafted 30-40. Because we went SO teen-heavy there, I'm hoping we've already talked terms with a few of the top-10 guys and can save enough cash there to not only sign them but to throw $500k at some later draftpick to buy them out of college. We were able to get several teen arms signed last year (and I was not sure that we would) and if that pays off that could be our top-flight pitching that was missing this year. Fingers crossed for some magic there.

Another draft down. Let's hope the payout three years from now is bigger than we had under Zduriencik.

~G

Comments

1

#1 pick Lewis: signed

#3 pick Brigman: changed Twitter pics to Seattle items and said he's looking forward to signing

#4 pick Burrows: his team thinks he's signing for sure

#5 pick Walton: Senior - he'll sign.

#7 pick Festa: Senior too, so same.

#8 pick Zammarelli: has tweeted he's a Mariner and should sign next week.

#9 Goldstein: Senior, we're golden.

No news on Rizzo or Greer yet, and Brandon Miller hasn't said yet but I still expect him to sign.  If they can get Rizzo and Greer in for reasonable sums they'll have extra cash to spend on later picks.  It's great that a lot of it is happening quickly.

2

Great to read a detailed analyses of the draft almost live, great to read G-Money again and great to know you agree with a lot of the choices the M's made.

3
Jpax's picture

Gordon,

I love your Minor League analysis!  It seems like the Mariners took a "Middle Ground" approach to the Draft this year.  In 2013 and 2014, we swung for the fences and basically put all of our money into the top 2-3 prospects.  In 2015 we went the other way and drafted value and potential up and down throughout the entire Draft.  I too like this year's approach.

Last year, I remember you were pretty down on our 5th round pick Drew (Stanford SS).  Did he blossom after he left Stanford, improve his skills, or is he more of a mirage??

Thanks,

Jpax

4

So I guess I would consider him a mirage.  He doesn't have power and will never have power, but the .275 average and .340 OBP are okay I guess.  Tim Lopes hit .275 /.340 /.360 in rhw Cal League last year and is trying to aim at a Joey Cora career (which was my comp for him 3 years ago). Drew Jackson is in the same boat.  Drew could absolutely Willie Bloomquist together a really long pro career.  I still don't expect it to be a really good one, but he's got that gamer label and a nice handful of "grit" so he'll probably make the most of it.  

I'm with you, though, I was very happy with the way we spread out our approach last year and reeled in all the arms.

Niedert: Doesn't have the Ks yet but has been unhittable in his first year while still a teen and only walks 2 per 9.  When the Ks come he's gonna be ferocious.

Moore: Already in AA, doing just fine after killing the Cal League.  1 year into his career: 2.15 ERA, 8.5 K / 1.5 BB / 7.5 H per 9.  Nice second rounder.

Thompson: 4th rounder was really good as a teen in the AZL last year, should be in Everett next week.

Mobley, Inman, Ljay Newsome, Orozco especially...  The teen arms landed all right in limited action last year and we should get a good look at a lot of those kids in short-season next week.   It gives us far more chances to pull a rabbit out of the hat than when we pay for two big pieces and spend the rest of our draft on seniors and runner-up types.

This year's draft should have netted us young hitters with promise at the top and some really interesting bats if we can sign the rest of the catch, with some bullpen arms and 5th starters thrown in on top to show the kids the way to prepare when they join them in the low minors.  I accept. ;)

5

From this article:

Methuen athletic director Jim Weymouth was busy at a charity event when he first received notice that the Seattle Marinersselected former Ranger centerfielder Jansiel Rivera in the 22nd round of the MLB Draft. “Funny story about Jansiel,” Weymouth said. “He was with us as a freshman, then told me he was leaving to go play ball in the Dominican. I didn’t see or hear from him until two weeks ago when he showed up at our senior prom. “We started talking and he told me he was getting drafted. I didn’t know what to believe, but I’m very happy for Jansiel. He is a very nice kid, someone we didn’t want to see leave us.”


Rivera spent the last two years playing in that San Pedro de Macorís before moving back home to Methuen on May 6. While the time spent in the Dominican certainly proved to be beneficial, Rivera admits it wasn’t always easy.

“I had only been there for a week or two at a time on vacation, so it was a tough adjustment at first,” Rivera said. “It definitely took me some time to get used to it, but eventually I liked it.”

Also:

- Our second rounder Rizzo is also eager to get started, per this tweet:

thank you so much for the tremendous opportunity! I can't wait to get out there!

It's unlikely that we lose him - we drafted him in the range he was looking for and his college coach is on record as it being a long-shot that he gets there.  Just a matter of what it costs us to put him in the system and how much money that leaves us to sign other guys.  

Brandon Miller is elated, and has been expecting to go to Seattle.  "I'm ready to go and start my pro career."  Our 6th round pick should be at Everett, might move on to the MWL later since that's closer to home and easier for his family to see him pitch.  Wish we still had our Appalachian League team for that stuff too.

More updates as they appear. ;)

 

7

If they can, anyway.  Not sure Rizzo's gonna make it there, since he's a teen bat, but Lewis is supposed to be starting off there and I expect Rizzo to begin in AZ once he signs.  If he's great he might get promoted to Everett.  I think they'll probably take it slowly with him after the Jackson and Morgan SNAFUs.

8
SonicBOOM! (unverified)'s picture

Thanks for capturing that story, Gordon. I read it in our local paper- I actually live in the next town over from Methuen- and thought at the time "I look forward to hearing this story, from the Mariners' point of view!" I SURMISE that young Mr RIvera got spotted in the Dominican, spoke with a scout who told him the best way to get into the organization would be to repatriate to the USA, and then get drafted. And, sho 'nuff, in Round 22 (60 picks ahead of Trey Griffey) the Mariners popped him. Why else woudl someone spend four HS years playing baseball in the DR? 

I guess my only question, then is "If the rule says you can't be drafted until you graduate- how can Jansiel Rivera spend his four HS years in the DR and then graduate from Methuen HS?!" I hoep there aren't any downstream ramifications  for either the Mariners or their new draftee- such as putting this "on ice" for four years, until the young man passes Freshman English and Sophomore Social Studies!

Well- my other questions would be "Is he any good?" and "When can we see him play?!"

 

9

All his local paper says is this:

Former Methuen High player, Jansiel Rivera, who left the program near the end of his freshman year and went on to play AAU and the last two years in the Dominican Republic, was drafted in 22nd round by the Seattle Mariners.

Because he's a US citizen, he doesn't have to have graduated.  He had to drop out of high school a year before the draft, and as far as I can tell he dropped out at the end of his freshman year.  Doesn't mean he couldn't be homeschooled, but he had to wait until his class would have graduated to be eligible.  He did that, and was drafted, so we should be fine.

Hopefully the young man has gotten some good advice, because his signing bonus is not going to be over $100k and he'll be making minimum amounts in the minors until he hits it big.  I hope his AAU and international coaches did right by him, and I hope he can play.  I wouldn't mind getting a steal on the strange case of Jansiel for sure!  He'll almost certainly be in the AZL, or even extended instructionals down in Arizona while they figure out what he needs, just like any international prospect would be handled.  He's ahead of the game on adjusting to the US, since he grew up here.  We just need to expand on his baseball skills and see whether simulated games or real ones are the best way to start.

11

1) Our 33rd round pick is going to college.

2) #38 James Reilly is "most likely gonna honor his college commitment." Pending a bunch of cash we don't have to offer yet, I'm guessing.

3) There are conflicting reports on Lyle Lin, the teen C I'm interested in.  Nothing definitive yet.

Getting any of the teens from 30-40 is gonna be tough.  Just bring me Tyler Duncan: a raw Canuck who can cleanse the palate of the Gareth Morgan nonsense.  Alternately, having Morgan learn how to hit would be okay too.  He's on the Halman path, but at least Halman had game power. Morgan doesn't even have that yet.  One thing at a time, I guess.

~G

12
RockiesJeff's picture

Excellent article. Love your analysis!!! G for Genius!!!!!

14

Like I said, this is mostly for my own edification.  I want to know who we drafted before they hit the system and to see what we might have on hand. Glad ya enjoy it!  Hopefully there are several future Mariner studs in this draft and the last.  We need it.

15

From InsideNova in Virginia:

Rizzo, an infielder with Oakton, was chosen by the Seattle Mariners in the second round with the 50th pick overall. He left earlier this week for Peoria, Ariz. to take a physical, sign a contract and likely become a member of the Mariners Rookie League team

So we should know contract figures shortly, but Rizzo is under contract or will be soon.  David Greer, the college guy I'm surprisingly interested in, is still playing college ball as ASU got to the College World Series in Omaha, so we'll have to wait for his season to end before we know more on that front.

16

Lewis: Slot (3.286 million)
Brigman: (700k), 8k under slot
Festa: (10k), 202k under slot (poor seniors, literally)

So that gives us an extra $210k to throw at somebody so far, plus we can go up to 5% overbudget without draft pick penalties, so that's another $356k available to us.  

Total we can overspend on remaining picks right now without pick penalties: 566k.  Donovan Walton, our 5th round Senior SS, should give us another $350k or so once we toss him 10 or 20k to show up.  If Rizzo signs at slot (or heck, below) we'll have a decent war chest to try to buy out a couple of teens or Juniors in the later rounds.  We'll see if we use it, or if getting Rizzo to sign takes a chunk of it.

~G

17

- Brandon Miller, our 6th round pitching prospect with good stuff and great control, signed for $250k (54k under slot)

- Zammarelli, the 8th round IF prospect with the nice swing, took $150k (30k under slot).

So that's another $84k for the warchest, now up to $650k.  Walton and Greer still can't sign until their teams are eliminated, and it's all quiet on the Rizzo front, so we're waiting for a few more dominoes before we know just how much will be in that kitty to be able to bribe players after #10 to either leave college early or sign before they get there.

To reiterate from this first post, if Rizzo comes in at slot (and it's my opinion he should come in at slot or a little below as a bat-first teen with no real position as of yet who is still going to get paid a seven-figure signing bonus) and we get the $350k from Walton's slot when he signs on the cheap, that makes it a cool million bucks we have to offer to somebody in rounds 11-40.  That's if Greer and Burrows don't take a chunk, obviously, but we should be able to fit them in with the extra from Goldstein's slot differential, once we know what that is.

I would offer the large chunk of cash to Yovan and see what happens, but someone has to want to take that money, right?  Duncan,McCullough, Ethridge, or especially Rutschman would be good gets too.  A few years ago we offered something like 800k to try to buy Lance Lynn out of his college commit - he turned us down, though.  Same thing with Ryne Stanek - we offered $800k, he turned it down, and we gave it to Jordan Shipers instead.  That didn't quite work out.

Lynn would have been a good signing as he's been a very good pitcher before the injury took this year from him.  Stanek is working on mastering AA after being drafted out of college in the first round in 2013 by the Rays. They may not work out, but when you get those large-money guys you've got to be able to land them. It helps add some shine to the system and gives you a shot at a plus starting player rather than aiming at "decent benchie or bullpenner." The Ms should have enough capital to throw a million-ish bucks at one of the talented teens they took from rounds 30-40, or maybe to split it for $500k each for a couple.

I didn't think we'd get any, but if they can hook Rizzo reasonably maybe we can get one.  Let's go get at least one.

19
KyleS's picture

greer is from ASU.  It is UofA that is still alive in the CWS.  A few outlets have reported Greer signed for $135K $22.7 under slot.  BA and Bob Dutton both had the $135k figure

20
KyleS's picture

also I'm worried Rizzo will get the Joe DeCarlo or Gareth Morgan treatment as in an out of now where deal worth way over slot.  Would not be surprised to see him announced for $2 mil once Goldstein signs and we have tee extra $100K needed to make up there difference.  Hope I'm wrong as I'd love to see ethridge, yovan or Williams signed

21

But you'd like to think that we learned something from giving non-first-round teen batters overpayments.  DeCarlo is coming along slowly at least, but Morgan is utterly lost.

I don't mind if we sign Rizzo for a little overslot, but it's not like he was projected much higher than we drafted him. Keith Law had him at #69, below our third-round pick Brigman, and Brigman signed basically at slot.

 

I'd hate to make the Angels' mistake of drafting a guy in the second who won't sign without a huge overpayment.  You gotta know you can get your guy.  Maybe they did know that and that's why they're saving money on every other player, but the going rate for 5'9 rhomboid-shaped teen corner outfielders is not 2 million bucks.

Let's say I'm gonna keep holding out hope that Rizzo isn't gonna eat all the rest of our cookies.  I like him, but I'd like him and another high-profile teen to keep him company.  Two is better than one in prospecting.  Fingers crossed!

23

Keep it comin' Gordon!  Having you back at it is like finding a $100 bill in your pocket! 

24

Jansiel Rivera, the odd case of the freshman who decided to tool around the Dominican Republic getting his bat on until he was able to be drafted rather than going to high school: he signed for $125k.  So that takes 25k out of the war chest (back down to $647k for overpaying draftees) but we get an interesting athlete that we hope can also play ball.

Rivera spent the last two years playing in that San Pedro de Macorís before moving back home to Methuen on May 6. While the time spent in the Dominican certainly proved to be beneficial, Rivera admits it wasn't always easy.


    “I had only been there for a week or two at a time on vacation, so it was a tough adjustment at first,” Rivera said. “It definitely took me some time to get used to it, but eventually I liked it.” 

It's too bad that kid isn't gonna be anywhere I can see him on video for a couple of years.  I wanna see what they saw.

25

From his dad's twitter:

Happy to say that my son, , the 50th pick in the MLB draft by , has signed his contract.

And here's the payout:

. have signed second round pick Joe Rizzo for $1.75 mil. Pick 50 value=$1,252,100. HS 3b can really hit.

That's 498k overslot, taking the warchest to $149k, and it means we valued him as a mid-30s draftpick.  BA had him at 41, that's not really a reach.  It's not a BARGAIN, but good for him for getting paid.

After we sign our remaining seniors we should get the potential warchest back up to $500k or more, but whether we use it is a different matter. Forget most of the guys from 30-40.  My hope is that we can throw the rest at Duncan, the OF from Canada, and get him to bite.  We'll see.

But Rizzo is in the house, and that's a very good thing.

26
KyleS's picture

not as good as I hoped, but not as bad as I feared.  I think this means you can kiss dreams of ethridge, yovan, rutschman or McCullough goodbye.  Holding out hope for Williams, Duncan and Lin.

27

Duncan is probably the prize of that group, but Camryn and/or Lin as consolation wouldn't be exactly bad.  I just hope we spend the money if possible.  Pocketing it helps ownership, but I'd rather it be invested in a guy who might help the club.

28
didycel's picture

"Other signings not previously reported: pitcher Thomas Burrows (fourth round), catcher Jason Goldstein (9), pitchers Reggie McClain (13) and Kyle Davis (14), outfielder Dimas Ojeda (17), pitchers Jack Anderson (23) and Paul Covelle (27)."

"Brigman, Burrows, Goldstein, McClain, Davis, Anderson and Covelle will report to Short-A Everett. Ojeda will join Rizzo at Peoria."

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insid...

Cheers

30

That's $56k below slot (warchest total: back up to 205k).  We should get it up to over half a million easily once Goldstein and Walton sign.  Stay tuned.

33

It'll be a lot more savings though.  The warchest is back up to $349k, and we're just waiting on Walton now.  His slot is $379, so I'm expecting about $350k in savings, to take us to around $700k.  Which should be enough to sign one of the teens, if not two - unless the Ms execs wanna get VIP bottle service in the Champagne room somewhere to celebrate their draft rather than grab one of those guys.

We'll see.

34
KyleS's picture

lyle Lin on Instagram said he will be attending ASU.  That is unfortunate.  

If Walton signs for $25k we should have just under $700 to play with meaning an offer of $800k to offer a hs kid.  You have to think that could entice one of the kids

36

5th-rder Donnie Walton inks w/, $125k (pick 147 = $379k). Oklahoma St senior SS, makeup off charts, will play in big lgs.

So we paid him far more than we had to as a leader.  He's basically the new Willie Bloomquist.  Callis is almost certainly right that he'll play in the bigs and probably for a while.  How well he'll play even as a consummate gamer is the question.  I like him better than Drew Jackson and lots of people (who aren't me) love Drew Jackson as another grit-and-hustle-and-leader-type singles hitter.  Walton will be good for the system and could be a good stop-loss player at SS who can do more in up years.  That's a perfectly fine 5th round pick, and seriously - everybody who's ever met Walton RAVES about him.  I'm willing to buy in to that.

Also, his signing gives us the final $254k from our draft pool for the potential war chest, which should now max out around $633k.   10 days to use it.

37
Jpax's picture

Hey Gordon,

Wouldn't we also be able to add the $100,000 "after 10th round slot money" also to your figure. I am unclear on this question? I would love if we were able to get two high school kids signed, but at least one!

Jpax

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