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Writers like this are becoming hilariously irrelevant.
Only question with Paxton is health. He has arrived. Its obvious to anyone that watches him pitch or follows the team.
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Dr. D gasped in horror to see the following lead-in on the M's site:
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"... James Paxton is 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five starts since going on the DL after being hit in the elbow with a line drive. "
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At Boeing they had this tongue-in-cheek phrase, "True but not accurate." If you never knew what they meant by that, you know now. LOL.
Paxton also has a slash line of 27 whiffs, 5 walks (!) and 2 homers allowed in 27.1 innings since going on the DL after being hit in the elbow with a line drive. This is even better than his season slash line of 8.3 strikeouts, 1.9 walks (!) and 0.7 homers -- which given a normal dose of luck and fielding, would result in a 2.91 ERA and easily lead the league.
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Let me read that last sentence again. Are you saying that James Paxton is going to walk 1+ batters per game now? As the hardest-throwing starter in the American League?
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Other AL pitchers who maintain FIP's of 2.82 to 2.99 over the last few years: Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, and David Price. That's the list. Interesting that three of the four best AL pitchers lately have been flamethrowing lefties.
You're correct. Dr. D dislikes it when public figures around the M's adopt a "wait and see" attitude about James Paxton. Paxton has BEEN an elite starter, camouflaged a little bit by newness and circumstance.
That we'd like to see a few more years of Paxton pitching like this and staying healthy, before we FEEL comfortable about relying on him, is to STATE the obvious. But to ask, "When will he start pitching great?" is to IGNORE the obvious. He started pitching great when he was promoted this year.
That is the entire point of sabermetrics, to realize that Albert Belle is Albert Belle, before his baseball card has shown a long stat sheet's worth of thirty homers and 100 ribbies. :- ) Maybe the 1991 Albert Belle -- who slugged .540 in less than a full season, so didn't yet have the 30/100 -- was going to get hurt in 1992. :: shrug :: That possibility didn't help the enemy pitchers in 1991.
And the possibility of James Paxton getting run over by the Sounder Train, that isn't going to help the Twinkies tonight.
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Enjoy,
Dr D
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* - and casual fans
What most people want in order to feel comfortable, is for the W-L and ERA to line up with the truth. Truth doesn't do much for feelings. These folks want to feel comfortable after the fact.
I always go back to the arguments I had about the Unit being a HOF pitcher while he was doing it - not after. The fun is in the while, but no one wants to own a bad call so they wait.
Agree with Ice. Zeus is already here. I'm enjoying it now - as much as I can from the ATL.
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Comrades at first sight. Twenty-five years on, Paxton is giving us a little echo of the AOL days, isn't he? And how long did we wait for Mather and DiPoto, relatively speaking?
... agree with Taro-nator that Paxton has 'arrived' in the sense that he's jelled as a TOR, as opposed to being a prospect. Looks to me like there's plenty of upside left!
- the curve isn't yet fully reliable on a 2-0, 3-1 count
- the FB command in the zone will probably hone in more a la Price
- the change and fosh are barely touched
True, you expect him to lose some velocity a la Price and Kershaw and Sabathia, just as a general rule. But that pinwheel is so loosey-goosey (like the Unit's) that you wonder.
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When Paxton has his curveball working, he's almost unbeatable. 28 curveballs last night; 24 strikes.