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Yeah, Dunn should DH, but Griffey/Sweeney at DH>Saunders/Langerhans in LF, and Dunn is better than any of them. So play Dunn in LF in 2009 through Jr.'s farewell and be happy. You have your super DH in 2010.
Fool the M's once, shame on YOU ... but
So that pass on Adam Dunn -- how's that workin' out for yer?
:winning Anthony Hopkins smile:
The Mariners could have had two Branyans this year. Would that have changed the season? We know for a bloomin' fact that ONE Branyan did!
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We say Dunn RE-visited ... here was one of the earlier visitations. Actually, if you type the dude's name into the search box on this site, you'll come up with a dozen articles on him.
Among the 1000's of dreary (for me) words that we slogged through, trying to convince folks that Adam Dunn is deserving of a major league roster spot ...
This SSI article pointed out that Dunn -- despite his wonderful production in 2008 -- had been very UNlucky. (He hit 16 balls >400 feet that were not HR's.) ...usually, we neosabes go bonkers when we find a guy who, "normalized," is a hidden gem.
Even this opportunity to identify an unlucky hitter through sabermetrics didn't sway everybody, though...
In 2009, Big Donkey's luck did normalize. He's now hitting 275/400/550 in a pitcher's park, good for a sky-high OPS+ of 149. He's got 75 RBI, which creates a nice proportional backdrop to Russell the Muscle's 56.
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=== Available? ===
M's Watcher at Mariner Central points out Jon Heyman's article that claims that Adam Dunn is likely to clear waivers.
A team of 9 Adam Dunns would be scoring 8.2 runs per game this year. I'm not much good with math, but I believe a team of 9 Mariners wouldn't.
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=== Yeah, But He's Just a DH ===
Dunn, on the Mariners, would indeed have to DH. Is that okay? Can you spend money at the DH slot? A funny question to ask in Seattle, no? :- ) I thought a picture was supposed to be worth 1,000 words, but 15 years of Edgar Martinez didn't quite get through to us...
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1. Boston built this decade's powerhouse on Manny and a DH, that being David Ortiz.
2. If the Mariners traded for Adrian Gonzalez, either Branyan or Gonzalez would DH.
3. The last time the Mariners had a good offense, was when they built it around THE DH. The M's offense collapsed precisely when the .400 OBP, high-PX engine blew a head gasket.
4. If you didn't get the first three points: yes, it's fine to build around a DH.
Boston went ahead and put their thermo-nukes at the easy side of the D-spectrum, and then gave themselves the responsibility to work around the fact that their #3-4 hitters clogged the "Chance" Yahtzee spots.
It worked out okay.
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=== Cheap at 5 Times the Price Dept. ===
So: Felix, Morrow, Aumont, and Triunfel for Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and a couple prospects?
In Geoffy's reported deal:
Felix - for - Adrian Gonzalez
Buchholz - for - Morrow
Aumont, Triunfel - for - Two Boston spects
Cancel the fractions and it's a Felix-for-Gonzalez concept. More on this later, and on the very good reasons that Capt Jack might want to swap a handful of Bavasi's / Fontaine's prospects for his own selections.
:winning Hopkins smile gain:
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There's actually a great argument for that, and John Hart can frame it for you if you like. It's called investing your retirement money in secure -- hitting -- returns. And putting your disposable income into speculative -- pitching -- returns.
The Felix-for-Gonzalez CONCEPT is actually perfectly reasonable. We'd like more than Gonazalez, true, but ... a young lefty OBP/SLG superstar on the cheap? Who else would you trade Felix for?
And it would allow Capt Jack to replace Fontaine's blue-chippers with his own blue-chippers. Don't undersell the whole idea.
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But once you start thinking about trading Felix for Adrian Gonzalez:
What the deuce is your problem with just taking Dunn, instead of Gonzalez, if the difference in price is Felix Hernandez?
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You want Russell Branyan back? Adam Dunn has a whale of a lot more documentation than Branyan does, and he's younger, too.
Why feel so warm-and-fuzzy about Branyan, and so icky about Adam Dunn? They're the same player, except that Adam Dunn is a bit less glove, a bit more bat, and a couple fewer birthdays.
We're probably talking about this winter, rather than talking about an August waiver deal. But why Dunn INSTEAD OF Branyan? Branyan-Dunn might be be your poor man's, Safeco-ized version of Manny and Ortiz.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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I was scouting around for some info on Kenn Kasparek, who pitched a brilliant 3-hit, 9-K, 0-BB complete game at low-A Clinton last night (for the year, 112.1 IP, 110 K, 27 BB, 3 HR, 2.32 ERA).
[img_assist|nid=19109|title=Kenn Kasparek|desc=|link=popup|align=left|width=0|height=0] Turns out the guy is like 6-10, 200 and missed all of 2007 with TJ surgery.
Before that, he was quite the Texas high school hotshot and was considered potential top-50 draft material had he not committed to UT. After the TJ he ended up a 12th round pick.
Anyway, the really interesting thing I found was this list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/leagues/NCAA/031120recruiting100.html
Very sad to see Adenhart at the top (the Angels pitcher killed by the DUI), and interesting to see 5 Ms (but I may be missing some) on the list, of which Kasparek is the highest ranked (Kasparek 10; Fields 36; Tui 47; Gaby Hernandez 63; and the new kid Luke French at 84).
Also interesting that Weiters (13) and Price (58) are probably the most valuable commodities at the moment, though there might be others.
As for Kasparek, apparently he is making strides with a circle change and breaking pitch and could be one to keep an eye on.
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Why not both? Answer is simple ... money. Like it or not, there is a budget. What the ceiling will be for 2010 is only guesswork at this point. Z did a not awful job of swapping out Yuni and Wash for Wilson and Snell. More or less payroll neutral.
For 2010, Batista's payroll hit is gone. Outside of that, we're looking at replacing the current Branyan, Beltre and Bedard contracts with something. Currently, that's roughly $20 million spent on those 3 spots, and another 9 on Batista, (Griffey is getting another million or so). There's lots of ways to look at it, but one says, the club needs to fill: 1B, 3B, DH, LF, "maybe" another starter, but almost certainly a bullpen arm or two. So, they've got $30 million (give or take), to fill about 6 positions. Some of those, (bullpen arms), can be had on the cheap.
Is Saunders a lock for the LF slot for 2010? I dunno.
At this point, I believe the base is strong enough and the culture turned around enough where considering a "big payday" FA isn't completely out of the question. But, given the significant issues with having a defenseless DH slot this season, I would expect at least a little hesitation about rerunning a similar scenario in 2010. I for one would vastly prefer a Gabe Gross contract being added that could do more than JUST DH.
But, **BEFORE** you go and commit to a Dunn, (or whatever double-digit salary), I think Z is going to need to plug some of the unknown holes CHEAPLY for 2010 first. I for one am not satisfied with the Saunders/Langerhans pairing for LF. I'm hoping Saunders shows something in the final two months to change my mind.
And THIS is where the GM really earns his money. When the club STARTS close to being a contender, then it gets dramatically more difficult to give the kids a fair amount of time to adjust to the majors. If you sign Dunn, then you're pretty much commiting to throwing AT LEAST two positions open to prospects ... and you have no money to spend to plug those holes if those prospects don't produce.
today I believe in: Johnson, Ichiro, Lopez, FGut as adequate (or better) starters. A nice base. But that leaves FIVE (5) positions where the 2010 slot is currently up for grabs and will be either pricey to retain the current talent, (Branyan/Beltre), or the production of the likely suspects is very much in doubt. (I'm a tad nervous about Wilson - while others might be more nervous about Johnson).
Dunn at DH doesn't help the team AT ALL ... *if* the other 4 slots go to the offensive equivalents of ... let's say ... Sexson, Vidro, Wlad, Cedeno. Even assuming I'm correct about Johnson being adequate, and Wilson has no AL-phobia ... 1B, 3B, LF may get handed to Carp, Tui and Saunders with no fallback if you have to overspend for Dunn and/or the arb increases.
The likely scenario at the moment seems to begin with Branyan returning and Beltre walking, (and given another 2 months of slumping Branyan, and an .800 hitting Beltre, I could EASILY see a massive migration of the Mariner fanbase over which is the better move). Then again, with Carp being the best near-ready guy, and Tui having missed out on most of 2009, I could see the other argument as being the stronger. But much relies on HOW MUCH do these guys want to stay? The answer to THAT question is the one that supercedes the question of Dunn for me.
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...he's been saying he owes it to the Mariners to get extended with this team, and I think he will give us a huge hometown discount contract. Nothing suicidal to his finances, but something on the order of 2 years 8 mil per year with a club option for a third year.
For third base, we may have to gamble with a Hannahan Tuiasosopo platoon. And I have absolutely no problems with gambling on Saunders in 2010 if the team can do a little dumpster diving for a right handed hitter who kills lefties to cover for Mike's big weakness. Those types are usually available for essentially no cost.
So here's what I have for payroll:
C, 3B, LF, Bullpen - A total of maybe 7 mil between all 12 players at these spots with the likely configuration being:
CL) Fields
SUR) Lowe
SUL) Aumont
MRR) White
MRL) Olson
MR) Jakubauskas
LR) Vargas or French
C) Rob Johnson
BC) Adam Moore
3B) Jack Hannahan
3B) Matt Tuiasosopo
LF) Mike Saunders
LF) cheap righty platoon mate
8 mil wasted on Johjima, 12 mil wasated on Silva, 10 mil spent on Wilson's option, 13.5 mil spent on Ichiro (remember...his contract has a lot of deferred money), 8 mil on Branyan, 2.5 mil on Lopez, 3.5 mil on Snelll
So far I've spent 71.5 million or so. The beauty of Hannahan is that he's our utility player as well as being insurance against a Tui flop. He can play 2B, 1B, and in a pinch a little short. The two outfielders we have in left can also include our 4th outfielder and I've already dealt with the backup catcher. Now the fourth bench spot can be plugged by a bat first guy...options here include several internal candidates, the leading such candidate would have to be Carp...he can come up and get 300 at bats as a primary bench weapon and learn the game at the big league level without the club being forced to rely on him to sink or swim.
My starting pitchers would be King Felix (8 mil arby estimate), Snell (already accounted for), Rowland-Smith (500 K), Morrow (500 K), and Vargas or Frnech...we may need to spend some money on another high upside low initial investment reclamation project here. Those are usually out there every winter.
Gutierrez is in his first arby, so he's only getting about 3 mil tops.
That leaves the DH spot to fill and about 18 million to fill it. I don't see the problem.
5
Query: what happens if Johjima goes back to Japan? Doesn't that constitute "retiring" and get the Ms out of the deal -- isn't that what happened with Sasaki?
Couldn't that be mutually arranged?
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...then he goes home with a severence package worth considerably less than his current deal (the MLBPA won't allow him to walk away with nothing in the middle of a guaranteed deal unless he is out and out retiring from baseball). If the team wants to srong-arm him out of town, then he will probably negotiate some kind of half-deal buyout thing where he exercizes his opt-out but the Ms promise to pay him some percentage of it upfront.
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Z's trades essentially powerflushed Washburn for French and essentially made the rotation neutral towards Johjima again. Johjima might not catch Felix or Bedard, but RRS, #5 and French probably won't have any complaints upfront.
Assuming Johijma's bat returns to near 2007, trading Washburn (along with the better clubhouse) has essentially given the M's (marginally) better defense and offense for 20% of its remaining games for the low, low price of nothing. Johnson's not having a bad season himself, but the balance sheets come out a little bit better.
In the arena of opting out, the MLBPA won't interfere with a player terminating his contract. Sasaki did not retire in 2004, rather he re-signed with the Yokohama Bay Stars and immediately returned as an active NPB players. The MLBPA will have a beef with any move trying to force Johjima out of his contract against his will. And Joh is sure as heck not playing for the cash.
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...since returning from the DL, Johjima has indeed hit about like he did in the second half of 2007. No power at all, but a decent batting average. That makes him more valuable than anything else the Mariners could throw out there as a back-up catcher in 2010. I think Wak will want Johnson catching Snell, King Felix and Bedard when he comes off the DL, but RRS and French/Vargas will get Johjima.
9
Dunn homered on Tuesday and homered on Monday, 5 RBI's in the two games, which Washington won.
Tuesday, the lefty Dunn fanned 3 times :- ) and hit a 2-run homer "to deep LF" (the other way) against stud-LHP-setup Dan Meyer.
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He's up to .280/.405/.568 in a park harder for LH's than Safeco is, and sports a 154 OPS+, which is #6 in the NL.
He's #10 in OBP .... and ... #7 in SLG.
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The guys hitting on either side of Dunn must be saying, "Thank you very much", as they don't want to walk the guy ahead of Dunn, and the guy after him has a runner on base much of the time. That is, if Dunn hasn't cleared the bases. In that case, he probably faces the RP that just entered the game after the homer.