1
Here's the perfect player to lock in for 10 years. $150 million for 10 years.
I'd do it in a heartbeat.
Too High a Cust Associated
The Bakery is a veritable $1.99 buffet of pastries and pies this morning. If any other blog had a fraction of this "hard" information, we'd be awestricken ...
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=== Sittin' By the Doc on the Bay ===
As San-man aptly put it :- )
Doc has been waiting on pins and needles for the seismo that the M's were still in on Jason Bay, despite the Figgins signing. And here is Geoffy, confirming exactly that.
We'll leave Matty to re-pencil the budget math on a presumption that Jason Bay is actually madly in love with the M's, as reported... he can estimate the contract as well as anybody...
The M's, per Geoffy, are going after Bay "but need to know how much money they have first." He means that Beltre has to decline arb. Yuuccchhh. Well, so Figgins' deal isn't contingent on Beltre's arb -- that's good to know -- but the deal for the 2nd bat most definitely is.
You guys aren't sweatin' it on Beltre's arb. I am. A major league MOTO bat wagered against a 19-year-old amateur with a low-90's fastball.
...........
Anyway, I'm being a nag :- ) ... hopefully Capt Jack's confidence in Boras' greed is well placed ... and an offense like this would be sweet like ice cream:
1 Ichiro L
2 Figgins L
3 Bay R
4-9 an improving group of youngsters
In classical, non-teamwide-OPS+ terms, the bright-lights offenses of baseball history have generally had four prime time, Marquee Playas on offense ...of course, overall runs scored is the point. But we're just sayin', the James offense from a classical "irresistible" sense is four big bats, two left and two right...
With Bay, we'd be in a position to where any one more bat would give us that. Branyan on the cheap, or Tui or Guti developing, or you're just one tweak away from being there.
=== Defensive Cust Too High ===
I/O: Forget about Jack Cust. There's a line going around that the M's would look to cash-in on a non-tender candidate after next Friday's deadline. Cust is not expected to be tendered a contract by the Oakland A's and there are people in the M's organization that know him well.
... But there is no way the M's would risk throwing Cust and his defensive sideshow out there. ... So, remember that, when listing who you feel the M's would add as a bat. That player has to be reliable enough to be used in the field.
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Crunch: Meaning, also, that Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, etc. would not be options for the M's, if Bay is unavailable.
Zduriencik was earlier quoted that a DH type was possible. Today's word is the reverse. That's fine with SSI.
....
A rotodweeb like me is conditioned to value flexibility very highly. One of the yellow stickies on my wall, draft day, is a list of those 6-10 players who play multiple positions. I add 10-20% to their value.
You might have argued that Figgins' flexibility gave the M's the luxury of working with Dunn & Junior or Dunn & Thome or Dunn & Cust. But apparently, since those guys will not get 30-40 games at first base, the effect on Junior would be too drastic.
I have no problem with that.
...
Incidentally, here is a case where two smart orgs -- Oakland and Seattle -- have diametrically-opposed positions. Oakland would play Cust not only at 1B, but even in the outfield. Seattle says, no way Jose.
Despite the fact that Oakland's endorsement validates the strategy as reasonable, I'll cheerfully concede that this is a reasonable use of an org philosophy.
If "we want defense on this club" means "the 5% worst defensive players absolutely will not be here, whatever the ROI," that's the M's prerogative. No complaints.
...
How the mighty have fallen. Cust is now the laughingstock of the D-sector of sabermetrics. I remember just five* years ago, Jack Cust was on the COVER of Baseball Prospectus as the ultimate saber player.
He's gone from +100 to -100 in five years. And here we thought we had Truth at every point in between :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
That's your way of mocking the suggestion of a $250m lifetime contract for Albert Pujols?
We have low IQ's at Seattle Sports Insider. You'd be happier someplace where everybody's as smart as you are. :- )
3
And he's still got a career number ab's. He's been healthy which is a big + over say nick johnson.
The .429 obp in the minors is also a great stat to look at. And of course with a smaller ballpark then the colloseum his HR total will go up. also, if M's are willinging to dump so much funds on figgins cust would be a no brainer.
Finally, I didn't mock the pujols contract but I am weary about spending. Also I should mention within the cust contract I'm betting on the fact that the U.S dollar tanks over the next 10 years. This makes it really lucrative and just go out and sign everyone to a long term contract.
OBP_Train
4
Unless we're talking about another FIggins type contract (even then I'm hesitant considering his player type ages quickly), I just don't want anything to do with Bay. If you want a LF go after Seth Smith, if you need a bat go for a cheap DH type like Vlad or Thome. Please no Z. :-(
"One of those is Jason Bay. The M's remain interested in securing his services in some capacity -- as a left fielder, or maybe even a part-time DH -- but need to know how much money they have to spend first"
The Ms are likely very aware of Bay's deficiencies in the field, hopefully they aren't going to do something stupid like $15mil+ over 5 years.
5
Is it a coincidence that Bay's comments on how much he loooooooved him some Seattle come after word that the team will have Ichiro and Figgins at the top of the order?
6
The thing is, the hometown discount is going to have to be HUGE. I wouldn't do anything more than 4/40 for him.
If we're going to shell $14mil a year, Lackey is a much better player than Bay.
7
...Lackey will cost much more than 14 mil per year. Nice try though.
8
Doc may now rest easy. :)
9
So will Bay. I don't want either for that price, but if I had a choice between the two it would be Lackey.
10
Thats a relief.
Is the Figgins deal official yet?
11
1 Ichiro L
2 Figgins L
3 Bay R
...
With Bay, we'd be in a position to where any one more bat would give us that. Branyan on the cheap, or Tui or Guti developing, or you're just one tweak away from being there.
Doc, did you forget that we already have a 25-30 HR 4 hole hitter playing 2B for us??? Seriously we keep talking about acquiring RBI guys when we have one sitting in our infield that we keep trying to trade away. Of sourse adding Branyan as well to hit #5 (since he doesn't WANT to hit 3rd or 4th) would be awesome too (and word is that NO ONE will touch him with a 10 foot pole, let alone offer him 2 years guaranteed).
I for one would LOVE to have Bay sitting at #3, him being a PNW guy just makes it all the better. Back when Oregon State won back to back national championships one of my favorite parts of the team was that they were a bunch of PNW boys that got passed over by the California and Florida and Arizona schools, and went and took their championship anyways... twice :) :) :) How can you not cheer for a guy from Madras, Oregon, or ... Trail (yes the town he is from is named TRAIL) British Columbia???
If I were Z, I would plop down a 4 year 55 million dollar contract along with pictures of the 8,000 sq ft house on the Sound that was already purchased for him, ready to be moved into, and mention that his home town is an Ichiro Laser from Right Field away (approx. 230 miles), and watch him sign on the dotted line :)
12
I think Bay is going to get less than what he turned down in Boston. Maybe 4/52.
13
I don't know about that. Maybe, but it seems unlikely.
Regardless, I wouldn't want him even at that price. Thats pretty much a Sexson type contract, and since Bay is pretty much the '04 Sexson of LF I guess it makes sense.
Rh,0.55 ish eye, high BB%, low CT%, .240 IsoP (Richie had slightly higher in prime - 270ish).
The biggest difference between Richie and Bay is that Richie was a topspin hitter with a higher LD%, slightly more raw power. Bay is a backspin, flyball hitter, and would probably suffer a larger Safeco-effect than Sexson did in his prime.
I would NOT bet on Bay aging well either. Check out his comps.
14
You're capable of giving me an intelligent response to a question I haven't heard a decent reply to, yet.
If you consider it legitimately stupid to give Bay $15m per season, what do you do with the fact that the Red Sox offered him that, and are not stupid?
15
Well, we don't know if that is true exactly.
Assuming it is though, I do think that Bay is a MUCH better fit for Boston. Offensively hes the perfect guy to take advantage of the monster and in Boston LF range just isn't that important. Theres just less ground to cover and oftentimes your just playing off of the wall.
'09 was an atypical season where you had a very high FB% from Boston pitchers, but in most years the D in LF doesn't matter as much as it does in a neutral park.
That said, I still can't see offering $15mil over 5 years for Bay, even in Boston. In those favoring circumstances hes been worth around 3.5 WAR the past two years, which is good, but not star level.
You'd basically be paying Bay under 2007 FA market standards (in $ per W) for the first two years, and then MASSIVELY overpaying him during his decline. Theres just no upside in a deal like that. Even if Bay doesn't decline an inch you're still slightly overpaying him according to the current market. With Figgins, Z is paying him less than $2.5mil per WAR in the short-term. Theres downside in Year 3 and especially 4, but even if Figgins declines his contract should still be slightly better than market value. The Figgins deal is good value, Bay just isn't at $15mil+.
Boston is in a difficult situation where they need a LF, but not a ton are available asides from Bay that would be a good fit. They are competing with the Yankees and Rays in a brutal division and might be in a situation where they are desperate enough to overpay. Matsui and Guerrero would make better sense in LF on short-term deals, but both guys are injury risks when they're on the field (at this point in their careers). After that you're left with experimenting on guys like Gross or finding an option on the trade market. Maybe Boston would rather overpay in $ than in prospects?
16
Taro...the upside in it is...having a good hitter to bat third in front of two speedy lead-off types with high OBP. You don't need every contract you give out to be VORP/$ bonanza. If you have several good contracts that are giving you a VORP/$ bargain, that's great because it frees up budget room to pay market rate where you need it. Bay doesn't figure to have any bargain years...I don't care. I want the best hitter money can buy at fair market prices.
17
before a reply, how about one more question.... let me post it...
18
I don't agree. LF is the LAST place we need to be overpaying for a guy. There are much cheaper ways to add offense this offseason, and if we're going to contend then we need to continue to find values like Figgins in FA/trades.
Bay isn't going to be good value and has a chance at being a disaster contract in the later years.
19
There is talk of the Mariners going after Mike Cameron to play left for a year as a stopgap.
Your thoughts?
20
Looks like he'll be available now in FA for the right price.
OBP_Train
21
Baker likes Jonny Gomes.
Churchill wants a groundswell for Chien-Ming Wang.
Thoughts?
22
...Churchill is a fool if he thinks Wang is worth ANYthing. 4 K/2.5 BB groundball pitcher? Our defense is best in the OUTfield...not the INfield...Wang won't benefit from the gloves in Seattle...nor from the park. He's a bad fit and a bad bet to return to his former lucky glory. Frankly...he's just a bad pitcher.
But then...I never did think much of Churchill brand on analysis.
Gomes would be a nice platoon mate for Saunders and Griffey...I'm most ineterested in Justin Duchsherscherschsersxchserhcshesrerer.
23
Gomes has POWER and good plat descipline in minors. It looked earlier in 2k9 he was about to have a breakout year. Still the year end stats aren't bad. He also hit 3 hrs in game twice before. With gomes you are talking about a player who can just intimadate pitchers with his power :-)
Go get Gomes!
OBP_Train
24
...I think he's always going to be seriously streaky a la Pat Burrell...so you won't know what to expect from him.
But despite my lack of overpowering Gomes-love...I would still be glad to have him as a platoon partner and insurance policy for both Griffey and Saunders.