The value of 10 runs in the free agent market

Fast question, for Cool Papa, Taro, or those who follow Tango's comments threads...

Have Tango ($4.5/WAR) and Lichtmann ($5.1/WAR) suggested that they're going to re-value 1.0 WAR?  By how much?

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John Benson CPA calculates the worth of production by simply taking all available dollars and dividing by bases/runs available in the free agent pool.  I'm sure that Tango and Lichtmann do something similar -- free agent dollars spent by MLB in a given year, divided by runs created,* or something within that general paradigm.

...............

Can this ratio really have changed so much since 2007? 

If the value of 1.0 WAR (ten runs), since 2007, has been deflated by, say, 40% ...  well, I'm sure nobody is suggesting that there are significantly fewer bases & runs out there in the FA market in 2008 and 2009.  Why would there be fewer FA's?  There was a sudden avalanche of 8-year contracts in 2007?

If not, then what are we saying -- that the available dollars for free agents have changed substantially?

Payrolls aren't down.  Revenues increase radically each year, according to Boras.  So if payrolls are the same, but teams are spending less in the winter, that means arbitration awards have doubled and are sucking up the money?

..............

Or ... if the available payroll (ergo FA dollars) are similar to 2007, why would we be constantly referring to "2007 dollar-per-WAR levels" ?

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Perhaps MLB teams are spending more per run for players at the end of the bell curve and less for those in the middle.  In other words, paying $6M per WAR for Stars and $3.5M per WAR for Civics. 

I don't know if that's true, but if MLB teams are beginning to pay a premium for Stars, they're doing themselves a favor.  One guy packing 50 runs above average is worth more than five guys packing 10 runs above average. 

Historically, teams have paid for WAR in a fairly linear fashion -- $10m for 2 wins, $20m for 4 wins -- but it should be more like $8m for 2 wins and $22m for 4.

.................

Anyway, I'm constantly hearing that it's "incorrect" to pay a player anywhere near his Fangraphs value.  Would like to hear the explanation for why it would be incorrect.

In fact, since a Fangraphs salary-value is based on average salary paid in the industry, I'd like to hear why specialized cases wouldn't go above the average in many situations...

If, all across the industry, $9m was the average salary paid to a 2-win free agent shortstop, then certainly in some cases that 2-win SS should be paid $7m and in others it would be "correct" to pay him $11m.  No situation is perfectly average; nobody has 2.5 kids.

Help a brother out,

Dr D

Comments

1

First off, I think it reflects the point that if you are signing a 30 year old to a five year contract, present performance is not likely to be sustained for all five years.  In the past, I think the assumption was that the value of a win had significant helium, so inflation makes sure you don't end up over paying.  Since revenue growth over the next few years is uncertain, teams are concerned about tying up too much money over too many years. 
Specific to the M's, I think that Jack values roster flexibility so that he can avoid locking in on one player versus another.  This is why Chone Figgins is the primary target.  If Figgins unexpectedly sustains his 2009 performance, he's a steal.  If he stabilizes at his 2007-2009 mean, he's a good deal, and if he underperforms, he's an overpriced Mark McLemore.  The chance he's a liability is absolutely minimal.
Contrast this with Adam Dunn.  Dunn is currently a 3.5 win player at DH, and likely shouldn't own a glove.  I'd say his value matches Figgins value, but he is the antithesis of flexibility.  Why does this matter?  Because a declining bat could easily make him utterly useless -- see Vidro, Sexson, ...  He is not at all flexible.  If Poythress or Raben surprise, but have no fielding skill, Dunn blocks them and lead gloved prospects have limited value in trade.  Among Tui, Triunfel, Lopez, and Saunders who's going to develop further?  Who are you going to want in your lineup in 2011 and 2012?  With Figgins you can play the odds and expect someone(s) to develop, but you don't have to guess who. 
The point is with a flexible roster you don't need any particular player, so you don't need to pay a premium to acquire anyone.
 

2

Traditionally, great players are under paid, even using a linear scale for value.  I think this is because the collective bargaining agreement and risk averse GMs have lead to the over valuation of league average veterans.  If someone is over paid and the dollars are fixed, someone must be underpaid.  While this is primarily young players, it has also been stars.
I believe the reason is quite simple.  Pujols has been worth $110M over the next three years ignoring the non-linear nature of value, but it doesn't really matter.  Why? Because only a very limited number of teams could even consider paying him that much.  That would be 40% of the M's payroll.  What teams could pay that amount?  Yankees, Mets, Red Sox... Dodgers, Cubs?   

3
Taro's picture

I completely agree with your points.
I think Doc is right that the more W you are above RP the more the Ws should be valued. We saw this last season where the stars still got nearly '07 value, but civics were very much underpaid.
Last year it went a little too far though and kind of created situation where civics are where the value is. A few years ago, like '04, it was the stars like Guerrero and Escobar that were underpaid in the market.
 

4

Incidentally, Tango responded to that question a few days ago. Anyway, the reason stars aren't paid an exponentially greater salary than average players is because they are guaranteed many more years. Average players don't get 6 or 7 year deals, only the best players do. So while the stars may be paid in a linear fashion on a yearly basis, they are still guaranteed an exponentially larger amount of money than lesser guys. That's why long term contracts so often overpay players near the end; a lot of the money the player deserves early in the contract gets pushed out into future years when the player is in a decline. Therefor, if you think players should be paid in an exponential fashion on a yearly basis but want to maintain the current risk/reward then you should guarantee fewer years for stars (or guarantee more years for average players).

5

They get paid in years.
And a tall premium it is.  You could say that big-time stars often have their runs-above-average valued at close to 2x what midrange players do.
Those extra years are extremely valuable commodities.  And it leaves the basic pricing structure intact... second-order thinking by the ML franchises there.
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Don't have time to read Tango's response today.  Is he re-valuing cost-per-FA-run?  By how much?

6

First off, I think it reflects the point that if you are signing a 30 year old to a five year contract, present performance is not likely to be sustained for all five years.
You mean w/r/t Bay specifically?  Sure, you want to project his performance across all five years, and then NPV the dollars.  Often this seems roughly in balance, right?
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In the past, I think the assumption was that the value of a win had significant helium, so inflation makes sure you don't end up over paying.  Since revenue growth over the next few years is uncertain, teams are concerned about tying up too much money over too many years.
I can see how individual teams are more cautious about years. 
But has this shown up in length-of-contract signed?  Would this caution be reflected in a years-per-FA-of-Caliber-Y metric?  I doubt it, but what do you think?
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This is why Chone Figgins is the primary target.  If Figgins unexpectedly sustains his 2009 performance, he's a steal.  If he stabilizes at his 2007-2009 mean, he's a good deal, and if he underperforms, he's an overpriced Mark McLemore.  The chance he's a liability is absolutely minimal.
Agree again...
My question goes more to the question of an industry average.  The cyber-Seattle consensus has not been (only) that Jason Bay is a poor fit for the Mariners, but that $15m for Bay is simply out of alignment for his inherent value.
Taro qualified this w/r/t Bay and Fenway, because of the Green Monster and tiny LF.
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I take it, KG, that you would acknowledge that the industrywide $450,000 to $500,000 per FA run is not down much from 2007?

7

... given that only (say) 5 teams are in on the bidding for the top player... do you re-calculate the Benson formula?     Those 5 teams have $X, and have Y targets, and dollars-per-win FOR THEM are Z?
I've often wondered this.  The John Benson estimate, currently $4.5 - $5.0m per 10 runs, is industrywide.  But isn't that 30-team pool too generic a universe to be useful?
If the Mariners asked you to break down the industry dollar averages into specific costs-per-run more applicable to them, how would you do it KG?

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