Jason Bay - this 'n that

No idea whether the M's are still considering another impact bat.  Like we say, we've got doggy ears perked up, hoping for any whisper to that effect :- )

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=== Hurt Me ===

M-Pops points out that Jason Bay has some spectacular numbers against high-priced Yankee pitching...

Those are some nice numbers against tough pitchers.   I wonder what he was against Sabathia... ok, 1-for-6 in 2009.

I see that against NYY in 2009, Bay hit .392/.475/.686 in 14 games, 56 plate appearances.  He was .400/.450/.700 in Yankee Stadium, which is similar to Safeco.

We know, we know -- it's not scientific.  But it's illustrative.  I'm guessing that our friend Adrian didn't hit 400/500/700 against the Yankees last year :- )

A picture's worth 1000 words.  Bay's performance against the Yankees is illustrative of what we're talking about with him.  This is a guy who will give you the pro at-bat, the "hard" RBI, in Game Seven.  

Some guys feast on mistake pitches, weak pitching, low-pressure situations, and then fish for low-away sliders when the game is on the line.  Other guys exude competitiveness.  Bay is the real deal. 

Slugging .700 against the Yankees last year, I'll guarantee you that is part of what the Sox are thinking of, trying to lock Bay in as their #4 hitter.  I don't know if there is such a thing as a clutch hitter, but I do know that there is such a thing as a guy I do NOT want up there, when his at-bat decides the game.

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=== The Real Issue, Safeco ===

But as Zduriencik says, SOMEbody is going to have to hit right-handed in Safeco at some point.  Who, if not Bay, is going to be your MOTO righty?   Perhaps Bay can handle the job as well as any alternative?

Are you saying Bay is a bad fit for the park, or are you saying that there's a moratorium on star RH hitters in Seattle?  What happens when it's a tough game for the division lead and the other guys go to their LOOGY to shoot down your one big chance in the 8th?

...........

You could argue that you want to wait for a RH hitter with power the other way, a Tuiasosopo / Boone / Piazza / Edgar type.   You might wait awhile.

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=== Wanted Dead or Alive:  the Slugging LF ===

Jason Bay *might* (or might not) be a below-average corner outfielder.  I don't know.  But:

1) Bay is fast for a corner OF.  We are not talking Pete Incaviglia, or even Raul Ibanez, SX's here. 

2) There are a lot of LF's who are bat-first players.  If Fangraphs argues against bat-first LF'ers as a concept, it's putting itself in an unfortunate position.

Jason Bay is a cleanup hitter who plays LF, and he has good wheels.  I'm very skeptical of the skepticism on him.  It smacks of "Hey!  We just figured out that Babe Ruth was overrated!"

That's not to say that those who believe such, don't get to talk.  They do.  But so do Sandy and I.  :- )

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=== Devil's Advocate ===

We did see a big flaw in Bay's splits.  Check his performance with two strikes.

All hitters do worse with two strikes, naturally, Bay with a larger dropoff than most, I think.  Bay does his damage early in the count, and when he is 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, he is going to do something with the pitch.

His OPS is almost 2,000 (!) career on 3-0 and 3-1 pitches.   Not to say he's a mistake hitter, because he's tough on RHP.  But he's awfully aggressive.

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=== Bay's Upside ===

After 2008, Shandler wrote:

2007 injury-driven outlier ... HR/F could revert even higher. After trade he opened up his swing, hit more fly balls. Ceiling now looks like: UP: 2005 with 8-10 more HRs

2005 being a .302/.404/.559 season, with 32 homers, 101 RBI, and 110 runs scored.   Add ten homers to that, and you've got 320/400/600.  Shandler wasn't far off, because in 2009, Bay (switching leagues from the NL) hit 36 homers.  

Shandler's prediction of upside remaining for Bay - that is based on the idea that he's capable of turning on the ball more and lofting it more.  A breakout HR season is possible.

To be fair, Bay's SSLI score in 2009 was 15, mildly down.  His big 36-homer, 119-RBI, 103-run season is going to make it odds-off that he'll improve in 2010.

.............

Platoon splits:  Bay slugged .531 in Fenway, .542 in the rest of the league's parks.  He had mildly better K/BB and OBP at home, which is normal with the home cooking.  Bay was not benefitted by Fenway in 2009.

Bay slugged .578 against lefties and .520 against righties.

He slugged .527 in the first half and .550 in the second.

In August and September, he slugged .640 for the Red Sox.

...............

Here, we'll run Bay's SLG depending on game situation:

.529 SLG - within 4 runs

.575 SLG - within 3 runs

.589  SLG - within 2 runs

.615 - within 1 run

.625 SLG - tie game

.589 SLG - late & close

Again, we're not trying to be harsh, but compare that to the RH hitters the M's have had, who fish for low-away sliders every time the pressure's on.
  Bay doesn't disappear when his at-bat decides the ballgame.

...............

Take out the one injury year, 2007, and Bay's OPS+ is 132-150 every season he's been in the big leagues.   That's the same as Mark Teixeira

His RC/27 last year was 7.7 in the AL ... you could go on and on.  Right now, Bay is one of the best hitters in the majors.

 

Comments

2

... of the Bay. 
While I'm not saying landing Bay is going to turn Seattle into a playoff team, I do believe, among the talent available on the FA market, Bay would be my choice.  I'm low on Saunders, which colors my view, no doubt.  But, with Figgins signed, (and likely nudging Tui out of the immediate picture), and Griffey signed to eat up PAs at DH ... the only other place to get offense is LF, (assuming Branyan returns).  I don't see a juicy DH option that is going to be happy with the UNDER-side of the platoon DH slot.  Remember, the lefties get the bulk of the platoon ABs ... not the righties.
I'm with Doc that Bay is a legit cleanup hitter, who has some speed.  I also think the negativity surrounding his defense is vastly overstated.  A LF in Safeco needs speed.  A LF in Fenway needs to position himself to catch the rebounds off the monster.  I'd wager money that if Bay does end up in Seattle, barring injury, he's likely to have an Ibanez-esque defensive miracle in the UZR standings.  (my view on him actual defensive ability says he's probably an average-ish LF -- vastly superior to all the lumbering fence posts that play the position, (Dunn, Carlos Lee, Manny), but not a gifted CF-wannabe.
I do think Safeco will hurt his offense some.  But, the Pirates home park plays a whole lot like Safeco, and he had no trouble posting .900 OPS figures there.  And while Fenway may have helped his AL stats a bit, the 102 walks he got in 2006 and the 94 walks he got in 2009 both say the guy has a great eye.  He'll lose a few HRs in Safeco.  Beltre undoubtedly lost a few dingers, too.  But, a .275/.375/.500 line is about 100-200 points better than what the Ms can expect without him.  Who CARES if he hits 35 doubles and only 27 HRs?!?  He's still going to be flirting with a .900 OPS.
While I'm not naturally in favor of paying for declining players, (i.e. - anyone over age 28), going after a 30-year-old CERTAINLY is preferable to bidding on 34 or 35 year-olds (and up). 
If the club were to sign Bay, then the immediate plus to OBP from Bay/Figgins would be massive.  Assuming the club finally extends Branyan, then my dream would be Branyan for 1/2 of 2010, (at which point his back goes out), and Carp steps in and shows that he's immediately capable of posting a .360+ OBP.  The club could go from dead last in OBP to middle of the pack over night.  And if Moore's power kicks in, the club could have a legitimate offensive machine on the field.
A lot of "ifs", no doubt.  But a lineup with Lopez, Branyan and Bay offers three legitimate 30-HR "threats".  Not saying they'll all reach the mark, (depending on injury, they could all miss).  But, the difference in 28 HRs and 30 is primarily one of the MIND, not of actual value.
If the club lands Bay *AND* a 2nd ace to pair with Felix ... Seattle likely starts getting buzz as an AL West favorite.

3
Taro's picture

Bay's marks were pretty much all along career lines asides from a big drop in  CT%. I think his offense will hold on, but he will lose a little with age/Safeco (and could nose dive by years 2-4 if he isn't a roider). His defense isn't going to get better with time. Figuring a 5 year deal or so, eventually you're going to be paying him to be your DH.
I don't like it. For $4-5mil on a one year deal I might be able to land an 850-60 OPS Branyan or Thome.
Bay is likely going to get $15mil+ per year over 5 years for his decline years. Hes simply just NOT a good value. Do I want to pay him that money for an extra 20-30 OPS points over the cheap 1B and DH options in FA? Why would I want to do that for a guy whos going to be paid FULL market value (maybe even over), is a terrible fit for the park, and isn't the type of player that ages well (many of his comps aged early)?
Heck if we feel like we need RH bat so badly (I don't), I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather target Vlad Guerrero to be our DH. He'll cost less than half of what Bay is going to cost per year, and probably won't get more than a one year+ option at most.

4

To left and left-center too?
This is because of the park, or because of the pricey lineup?

5

?Here, we'll run Bay's SLG depending on game situation
?’? FO loves that.
In a single stats it is in WPA.
2008 5.50  5th in all MLB
2009 4.29  2nd after Ichiro in AL
Bay can win games with his bat.
The stat which I think M's FO value the RE24 and REW is at
Year       RE24   REW
2008      40.15 3.94  15th in MLB
2009     45.37 4.19  2nd in AL after Mauer
These are top 15 if not top 2 offensive numbers in MLB or AL
He is that good!

6

YS rated as the worst park for pitchers in the AL in 2009.  It inflated HRs by >15% and run scoring by about 9%.  LCF may not be as easy to crush the ball to as RF there, but the park is considerably more homer friendly to all fields than YS2 was.  And no, the park factor data should not be heavily biased by the Yankees themselves.  Both the Yankees AND their opponents hit significantly better at YS than on the road.

7

The word, the last 24-48 hours, is that the M's are pulling off of Bay.
I don't agree with the idea that $5m per win for Bay is stupid, unwise, ludicrous, etc., but I do agree with the idea that there are manifold advantages to the M's to not ossify LF with a RH bat.
After Bay said he wanted to play in Seattle, I thought our chances were maybe 40%.  Now I'd say much less than that.

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