Seattle Sports Insider

Rendon and The Edgar

Posted by

3/30/11

=== Spec ===

... sez, of Anthony Rendon,

"Hank Aaron wrists" says his college coach (who is 75 years old and played for the Phillies under Gene Mauch in 1963, so he knows what he's talking about). Rendon 6-0, 190; Aaron 6-0, 180.

The foundation of Rendon's offensive game is an innate ability to wait for his pitch.

"That's not something you teach," Rice hitting coach Mike Taylor said. "And Anthony's got supreme hand-eye coordination for this level, something I think he can take to the next level. He's also got the ability to keep his hands back and flick his wrists through the zone. I've been here 11 years, and the only hitter I've seen comparable through these ranks was Teixeira."

I'm with G, I don't think he just forgot how to hit. He has seasons of 20 and 26 HR under his belt already. Picking him up at #2 would be a great windfall, I think.

Awesome that the quote came from a 1960's MLB player.

Seattle has had, in its history, one player who hit precisely this way -- using a lethal wrist-snap to wait on breaking balls and rip them to LF, or to take 96 fastballs out of the catcher's mitt down the RF line. That being Edgar Martinez.

Mike Mittleman used to talk to us on the STATS board, around 1995-97, about Edgar having "Aaron-like wrists" and that being the attribute that set him apart from other major league cleanup hitters.

"Make a mistake to that guy and there is no telling where the ball is going to wind up," said Cito Gaston after Edgar beat him one time.

............

Edgar needed some, er, Creatine in order to become the monster who led the AL by 20 runs created back in 1995. But he was always going to be a .400 OBP hitter with major gap power.

Just for fun, not that it applies to Rendon, but it's always enjoyable to remember Edgar....

Back in the 1990's, Edgar was competing with Mark McGwire, with Frank Thomas and Joey Belle and Jim Thome and Wade Boggs and Raffy and Manny and all those guys, but Edgar and Frank Thomas were probably the two best hitters in the AL for about a 5-year window. The 1995 Runs Created list:

Runs Created s c a p y
1.	Martinez (SEA)	161
2.	Belle (CLE)	144
	Thomas (CHW)	144
4.	Salmon (CAL)	142
5.	Palmeiro (BAL)	123
6.	Vaughn (BOS)	121
7.	Valentin (BOS)	119
8.	Thome (CLE)	118
9.	Knoblauch (MIN)	115
10.	Ramirez (CLE)	109
	Williams (NYY)	109

The 1995 leaderboards were amazing. Here they are.

Edgar is #19 in career OPS among RH hitters, and 7 of those are active with OPS's that will drop ... ahead of Edgar are Jimmie Foxx and Joe DiMaggio, but behind Edgar are Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.

Even adjusting for park and for era, Edgar is ahead of Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, Mike Piazza, George Brett, etc. in career OPS+.

There are probably, what, 60 or 80 HOF'ers who weren't as good at hitting as Edgar was.

.........

The M's lost ARod and kept scoring runs ... lost Junior and won 116 games... but when they lost Edgar, their offense went up in smoke.

Visualizing Anthony Rendon in the Edgar mold, it's not hard to see why he'd be the easy #1, even in a draft with a Beckett-level pitcher (if Cole is actually that good).

== Justin ===

Another consideration - as far as I can remember, the M's have yet to develop a single impact MLB position player in their decade at Safeco while quite a few top pitchers have come along and/or exceeded expectations.

This obviously works the reverse way too - if no big bats want to sign here, a strategy might be to draft ones who do not have a choice.

Regardless, this might balance some of the pitcher v. hitter risk when comparing Cole/Rendon.

Overall, STATS found that it's a big advantage to try to develop a pennantwinner in a pitcher's park, but the M's offensive problems have literally reached historic proportions.

In all the discussion about Rendon vs. Cole ... don't think anybody brought up that for the Mariners Anthony Rendon is a much more dire need.

=== Cool Papa Bell ===

As BP's reseach from a few years ago showed, college position players selected for their bats are the best bets in the draft by far. They are not only better than pitchers, college and high school, but they are better than prep hitters and college players at premium positions as well.

This really isn't too surprising when you think about it because if a guy is a fantastic hitter at 20 or 21, there is very little projection necessary. It may seem like other college players would be just as reliable, but that isn't the case. With Shortstops and centerfielders, their bats are more questionanable and since offense is the most valuable asset in baseball, this makes them less likely to be impact players because they need more development. Pitchers, on the other hand, not only are inherently more likely to suffer serious injury, but they need to adjust to pitching more often and over a longer season. How a pitcher handles that is a huge question mark and can not be answered before he turns pro.

So while Cole may be a great pick at number 2, I have to take the polished bat if given the chance

Agree with that second paragraph. The ARods of the game, obviously, it's already clear who they are by 20 or 21.

Age-arcs are simply easier to plot into the future for hitters. By far.

Great point. Not sure why this didn't occur to me w/r/t college hitters and pitchers.

............

By the way CPB, do you remember anything in the study about tip-top HS hitters vs tip-top college pitchers?

...........

Meanwhile, let's just keep hoping for Cole to wipe out bat-less lineups and for the ML scout consortium to keep talking excitedly about how Cole is passing up Rendon. Every quote to that effect is --- > music to a Mariner fan's ears.

Pittsburgh may need little other excuse to go with their DNA - to grab at the Mark Prior sitting there for 'em :- )

..........

BTW Cool Papa, you don't want in to our AL-only tomorrow night?

Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

Draft prospects

Here is the summary page from that study. Here are some relevant points:
Draft Rule #8: There is virtually no difference whatsoever in the value of the other three groups [those who aren't college hitters] of draft picks. In particular, it is no longer apparent that high school pitchers, even in the first round, are significantly riskier than either high school hitters or college pitchers.
From 1992 to 1999, pitchers out of college returned 14.6% less value than expected. Pitchers drafted out of high school were at -14.9%. High school hitters checked in at -20.9%

However, after further thought, I don't think that really answers your question. I think what you want to know is along the lines of "If you take the 5 best college pitchers and the 5 best prep pitchers, which group would do better?". But the study is looking at how a player compares to those drafted in the same slot. That's a completely different issue. In effect, what they really did was evaluate scouts, not the players.
If the scouts are doing their job and properly weighing the risks and rewards of players, then every class of player should have the same value according to this methodology (since they would get selected in the correct slot). And for the most part that is what we see. So if a scout tells you that a particular player is as good as another player, you should trust him regardless of what type of players they are because the scout should have already taken into account all risks associated with them.
The one big, glaring exception is college first baseman. For whatever reason scouts were radically underrating them. However, it's possible that in the last decade (the study looked at players drafted through 1999) they have taken this into account and have adjusted their evaluations accordingly. Again, that's what you'd expect if they were doing their job correctly.
*******
As for the fantasy baseball, I'd like to play but the last couple years I've been out of the loop when it comes to teams other than the Mariners and I haven't done any draft prep so I'd be hopeless in a shallow league. I'd probably ended up with all NL players ("No, way! I can't believe Roy Halladay is still available!")

Good stuff

Your first full paragraph nails it. I'm really asking, if you have a great 1-1 or 1-2 pick, and can take who you see as the dominant player of the year, are you okay to take a HS player who is not Alex Rodriguez.
...........
Remember that point about the 1B's.
Probably indicates that teams are working hard to fight the D-spectrum, which is a good idea... but in any draft you have to zig against the zag, right?
.............
LOL on the fantasy ball. I quite understand.
Actually I hadn't stayed in touch with the player pool at all, since our last league, and about 20-30% of the players were mystery names to me, 2 days before Justin's draft ... :- )
Before D-2, I don't think I'd heard the names Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Carlos Santana LOL or Hunter Pence... for sure I didn't know who Heath Bell or Brian Wilson were...
There are some draft apps out there that can cut the learning curve, however :- )

Zig vs Zag

If BP clearly and loudly demo'ed that --- > college hitters were huge values in Round 1, then 21st-century orgs would be derelict not to adjust for that...
The question would be which teams exploited the syndrome the most in the first few years after the syndrome was discovered...
..........
But whether teams have adjusted or not, the principles applying to Rendon vs. Cole remain in place. The people drafting around you don't affect value when you're 1-1...

2008 draft

If the 2008 draft is any indication, they have adjusted. Counting Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace as 1B, 7 for the first 23 players selected were college first basemen (plus one HS 1B).

cpoints

... and that's certainly what we'd expect.
MLB organizations are info mills these days. Would be weird if they dropped the ball on such important and incontrovertible data.

Another approach

I thought of a way I might answer your question but it might be a few days before I can get to it. Let me see what I can do.

Sure, but that was the strength of that draft

It was the greatest crop of 1B prospects at one time in draft history, basically. College hitters were REALLY strong that year.
2009?
The only college hitters taken in the top 30 were all glove positions: #2 Dustin Ackley (who was moved to 2B), #4 Tony Sanchez (catcher), #13 Grant Green (SS), #17 AJ Pollock (CF), and #23 Jared Mitchell (CF).
So that year nobody wanted to take a college hitter purely for his bat, because there were none to be had. It's always gonna be a strength-of-the-draft thing.
Historically College 1B are the safest picks to make. They make the big leagues and contribute more steadily than any other picks...but not if they suck. The player available still has to be an awesome talent - can't just draft college hitters if no good ones are there to take.
Which is another reason why adding Smoak, the best pure college 1B in that draft IMO, is great. Hosmer might be better, but Hosmer was coming from high school. But that draft was loaded with good-to-great bats at the position.
Alvarez I think will stay at 3B a few more years (unless they draft Rendon) and doesn't walk, Wallace doesn't have the pop, Davis will be good but not as good as Smoak can be, Dykstra was laid out by a hidden chronic injury, and Cooper just wasn't good IMO. I think Smoak tops em all if he can reach his potential.
If we can add the best college hitter in a draft 3 years running (Smoak, Ackley and Rendon) that'd be quite something. Adding the best SS in a draft in Franklin would be an excellent bonus. One way to make over a lineup, anyway.
~G

Hmmm I'm like a juror doing the tennis-match head sway

Rendon sliding ?

Is it true Rendon is sliding backward in clubs' preference right now ? Also, any news about his medical situation as for past injuries (ankle, shoulder) since I saw he's not been playing at 3B this season ?