1
I will now be a bit more conservative in my expectation for Pineda's ERA+. I was thinking Felix was more of an exception and that the average guy in Pineda's class runs 120s. Looks like 100 is a very likely outcome.
Pineda Peer Group Rookie Comparison
| Pitcher | Age | GS | ERA+ | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Felix | 20 | 31 | 98 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 8.3 |
| Beckett | 22 | 21 | 99 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 9.4 |
| Clemens | 21 | 20 | 97 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 8.5 |
| Smoltz | 22 | 29 | 124 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 7.3 |
| Lackey | 23 | 18 | 121 | 9.4 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 5.7 |
| Freddy | 23 | 33 | 124 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 7.6 |
| Wood | 21 | 26 | 129 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 12.6 |
| Sheets | 22 | 25 | 91 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 5.6 |
| Prior | 21 | 19 | 122 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 11.3 |
| Strasburg | 21 | 12 | 139 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 12.2 |
| Cain | 21 | 31 | 108 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 8.4 |
| Halladay | 22 | 18* | 126 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Zambrano | 21 | 16* | 111 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 7.7 |
[First off, I wanted to see if I could make a table.]
Edit: Added Halladay after Sandy's comment (obvious omission); also added Zambrano.
I just took guys that I would define as in the "big, right-handed, powerful dude" class. [FWIW, that is Gerrit Cole's class (6-4, 220) as well.]
The most obvious thing is that the most dominant guys all ended up getting injured young (Stras, Wood, Prior). [Obviously, that gives a Cole fan pause.]
The guys with less-electric stuff didn't get plugged into an MLB rotation until 23. Pineda is 22. [Cole will turn 22 in Sept. of 2012.]
Of the guys 22-and-under who weren't striking out the universe on their way to the operating room, only Smoltz appeared to have things mostly figured out as a rookie.
*Halladay also had 18 relief appearances; Zambrano also had 16 relief appearances.
=====
Interesting notes on who I didn't put on:
Bob Gibson was only listed as 6-1, 189. All that intimidation came from attitude, not size, I guess. In addition, he was not a full-time starter until his third season, at 25.
Likewise, Ferguson Jenkins pitched in relief for two seasons before becoming a starter at 24.
Dave Stewart didn't become a full-time starter until he was 30.
Comments
2
I get the concept of leaving out the lefties ... but not sure why Halladay didn't make your cut.
Just fyi, as a rookie:
1999: 149-IP; 3.92-ERA; (126-ERA+); 1.1-HR; 4.8-BB; 4.9-K
Of course, Halladay spent 70 innings in both 2000 and 2001 in AAA, (go figure), before putting things together at age 25.
Another righty who had instant, sustained success was Oswalt, who got off the bus at age 23, and is currently sandwiched between Felix and Halladay on the active all-time ERA+ leaderboard at 5th. For some reason, Oswalt just never seems to make the list of contemporary greats. The non-Brave part of my brain hopes that he outpitches everyone else in Philly this year so he can get a little respect.
3
I was just kind of picking out names. I recalled Halladay struggling early in his career, but forgot he'd had a solid rookie year before he got sent back down. I'll see if I can edit him in there.
Oswalt is a guy I tend to overlook, but I was looking for the taller, bigger guys (roughly 6-2, 200 or bigger) to fit with Pineda's profile.
4
Oswalt is 6 nothing at best, so he doesn't make the "big, right-handed, powerful dude" class as he's missing the "big" part. Totally different body type. But I agree, criminally under-rated.
Halladay might have been overlooked, but still a great list. Thanks!
~G
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:- )
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I had to experiment. What pops up doesn't really look like a table until you start typing in it. You need to use the arrow keys to move between cells and not tab. Worked pretty well once I figured it out.
7
Starts off with the *physical* template.
........
Totally agree with the idea that if you're talking a U.S.S. Nimitz-class HOF candidate, in the 230-lb. RHP category, that ---> there is some acceleration to the career that you should plan on.
Even Seaver and Clemens ran a coupla 130's before they could post the 24-4 seasons.
...........
There are burn-hot-and-bright types who often make a splash early, but who don't win 200 games.
Not sure whether Pineda is in the U.S.S. Nimitz HOF-challenge category, or whether Pineda is more a burn-hot-and-bright type. Am undecided.
...........
And, as always, we're talking about general trends, not absolutes.
GREAT post Spec.
8
But he certainly pitches like a big guy. Not being glib; Oswalt's pitches come out of his hand like he was a big hoss.
...........
Bill James used to LOVE to point out the great players who didn't get credit for being great.
Oswalt's "problem" is that he's 17-10 with a 145 ERA+ every year, as opposed to having a 22-5, 2.35 season in there anywhere.
At age 32, Oswalt already has 121 of 185 HOF points for Gray Ink (top 10 in league), but only 13 of 40 HOF points for Black Ink (leading league).
............
Consistency is a big negative when it comes to Madison Avenue :- )
I'm witchoo Sandy... would love to see Oswalt become Philly's #1...
9
I get where you're coming from. I guess my Atlanta background has me generally dismiss the idea of "size matters" in regards to pitchers.
That said - I would agree that physical type is a more than reasonable starting point to examine INJURY propensity. I just think (just like mph), that the "pure measurements" are overly critical to analysts (in general - not you specifically), simply because they cannot be disputed.
I mean, Nolan Ryan was 6' 2", but bbref has him listed at 170 pounds. Is the diff between 6'0" and 6'2" really significant? My baseball memory suggests - no, not really. The diff between 5' 10" and 6' 5" ... wellll, that's a different discussion.
I was really just (like you) trying to dredge up some HoF righties to take a glance at their break from the gate. (Just now I thought of Curt Schilling - and when I looked, realized he had a Santana-esque start -- with his earliest action being out of the pen). Then again, like a lot of the larger righties, he had some injury issues early on, which he eventually put behind him.
Makes me wonder - perhaps the extra size is actually working AGAINST the health of the players, allowing them to create enough torque to do damage that the slighter righties might be avoiding. Just a random thought.
10
Size is weird in baseball - completely distorted by the steroid era. Baseball Reference has Hammerin' Hank Aaron at 6'0" and 180lbs. I'm assuming that was when he was younger. But still - that's the real HR king and he wasn't some hulk. Mickey Mantle is listed at 5'11" and 195lbs. A couple of epic power hitters there.
Dustin Ackley is listed by BR at 6'1" and 185lbs and we think of him a guy with a frame that will just never allow him to hit for power. He's "little Dusty" on Baker's blog.
Let's be clear - I'm not saying Ackley is going to hit 750 HR's or anything. Aaron and Mantle were a freaks of nature. But it is weird that we now only associate hulking McGuire/Bonds size with power. We see guys their size today and immediately classify them as slap hitters.
11
Well said MtGrizzly. Size does not equate performance. Want to compare sizes? Anyone remember watching George Foster pound home runs for the Big Red Machine? He was listed at 6'1"/180lbs. DA has him by 5 lbs. Power is a combinatio of a lot of things, one of them being mental approach and role. Ackley has been on obp freak that is needed. He is not looking deep first. But his potential power is still there. Good example in golf where sometimes smaller guys pound it further than bigger guys. The bigger guy might not want to pound it but is looking for consistency, etc. Good points MtGrizzly.