Seattle Sports Insider

Lincecum vs Felix Hernandez

Posted by

11/3/10

We axed RockiesJeff whether he'd take Felix or Tim Lincecum...

Cy Youngs aside, I have to go with King Felix. He is a rare one. Enjoy!!!

You all?

Okay, last year after Lincecum's 2nd CY, I told my boys that if I were a GM, in 5 years I think I would rather have Cain than Lincecum. High altitude taking a toll on the brain aside, this season in a couple of games against the Rockies Lincecum was very human. I know he is a pitcher now more than a thrower and his curve/split is lethal. But early this season against the Rockies his velocity was much more inconsistent than prior years. I will stick to that for now. And hope I look like a fool.

But early this season against the Rockies his velocity was much more inconsistent than prior years.

Yep. After 5-odd years, it's clear that Felix is a Clemens-type horse whose stuff figures to hold up for two decades. Lincecum's career arc is much more suspect.

High altitude taking a toll on the brain aside

Heh :- )

If Lincecum delivers the Giants a Sandy Koufax-type career, 5-6 years of uber-brilliance, he'll of course have been worth a #1 overall. But he's not a guy I'd bet on to strike out 4,000 men.

If I had the Giants, I'd be sorely tempted to sell high on Lincecum right about now. Time to tear a page out of the Billy Beane Playbook on franchise SP's.

=== 2010 Playoffs ===

Didn't see all the games, but we see that Lincecum won 4 games in the postseason. He had a 43:9 control and a WHIP of less than 1.

Three of Timmy's five starts were Game Ones, and I don't think we're talking about weak teams, or weak opposition starting here...

G1: Braves + Lowe -- won 1-0, full game shutout, 14 K's
G2: Phillies + Halladay - won
G3: Phillies + Halladay - lost
Even got a hold two days later
G4: Rangers + Lee - won
G5: Rangers + Lee - won a pitchers-duel shutout into the 7th

Slap me silly. Five games, twin duels with Halladay and Cliff Lee, and a game One with the Braves, and he almost ran the table. That would be Felix' postseason of a lifetime.

=== Felix ===

For all that, I'll take Felix in a heartbeat. Not only is the "arc" of his sheer stuff holding up better ... but I actually think he can leap a big plateau from where he's at now.

On 2-2, he doesn't have to throw a moving two-seamer at the knees. He can go up the ladder, or go outside the zone. Felix can fan ten men a game. I bet one day he will.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

I mentioned Schilling in

I mentioned Schilling in another thread, referencing what I expect to be Pineda's fastball reliance while he gets his offspeed stuff under control, and the leap he should take in the bigs once that works.
He can keep his head above water with that FB while he learns, though, and that's a big thing.
But Schilling went through several stages in his career. The one I was referring to with Pineda was when he figured out how to keep the FB out of the heart of the plate and his hits plummetted to make him a TOR pitcher.
But the stage 3 rocket for his career was when he got his pitch sequences right and could get the Ks, and Felix may be primed for the same boost.
Curt as a starter:
Year 1: 6.5 hits, 2.5 walks, 6 K
Year 2-3: 9 hits, 2.5 walks, 6.5 K
Year 4-5: 7.5 hits, 2-2.5 walks, 9 K
Year 6-7: 7.5 hits, 2.0 walks, 10.5 K
Year 8-9: 8-8.5 hits, 2.0 walks, 7.5 K (arm fatigue)
Year 10-12: 7.5-8 hits, 1.5 walks, 10.5 K
Year 13-end: wrapping up a fine career

Felix?
Year 1: 6.5 hits, 2.5 walks 8 K (partial)
Year 2-4: 9 hits, 2.5-3 walks, 8 K
Year 5-6: 7-7.5 hits, 2.5 walks, 8-8.5 K

Felix didn't up his Ks when Curt did, but he dropped his hits in the same year-plane without really budging his Ks at all, and that makes it seem like there's more to be had.
I'm with you, Doc - Felix is already all-world, and if he hits the stage three booster rockets like Schilling did, when those extra 2.5 K/9 show up the rest of the world is gonna weep.
Even with his velocity issues this year, though, betting against Lincecum is hard for me. I guess I still remember the Dodgers giving away Pedro because he was too fragile to last.
3 Cy Youngs and 2800 innings later...that seems a bit short-sighted.
Still, if I offered you Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez you'd have to think pretty hard about it. I'm perfectly happy with the starter we have. I just wish we'd also been smart enough to add Pedro to our Clemens when we had the chance.
Such is life. Maybe getting our Wade Boggs at 2B and keeping our Curt Schilling attempt as a system prize will help us make up for it, right?
~G

Lincecum changed the

LincecuLincecum changed the grip on his slider in early September. Looking at the numbers in September+October, they gone back to being silly again.
His delivery requires a lot of flexibility and athleticism though, so he needs to be in better condition to maintain his stuff over a guy like Felix.m changed the grip on his slider in ear

Schilling's one of the clearest arcs IMHO

As y'know, most young flamethrowers lose velo as they gain finesse, but Schilling maintained his velo much better as he evolved. Hence the plateaus that are so easy to scan...
Felix of course maintaining the velo, also...
Still, if I offered you Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez you'd have to think pretty hard about it. I'm perfectly happy with the starter we have. I just wish we'd also been smart enough to add Pedro to our Clemens when we had the chance.

For Felix, or for Lincecum?
:- ) In either case, where in the world is a pitcher when you'd have to think about Clemens for him. Yow. I think James has Clemens top-5 all time.
Felix is, more or less, as good as it gets -- as good as it has ever gotten -- for a pitcher after 5 years. You could draft him with anybody after their Y-5 resumes...

Didn't know that

Now that you remind me about his physical similarities to Ichiro, I waver back towards betting long on him...

Felix = Clemens and Lincecum

Felix = Clemens and Lincecum = Pedro in that scenario.
Most people would take the horse Clemens (Felix) if given their due over the added risk of little-guy Pedro (Lincecum), but noting that Clemens was apparently roiding out his eyeballs in his last several years it makes comparing Roger to anyone a little suspect.
And it makes the divide between him and Pedro smaller. Also, wanting Roger's 20+ year career that much more only makes sense if you get to enjoy all of it. If Felix is still doing this at the end of his contract then we're not keeping him. He'll be wearing pinstripes.
So offering me 5 years of Felix or 5 years of Tim then narrows the gap on their differences, that's all.
And I'd just have liked to overlap Felix and Lincecum. Though I'll note that Felix seems to like being staff ace. His shaky months were the ones he was playing second fiddle to Lee. Maybe it's coincidence. He definitely seems to take that role seriously though. I don't see him being happy being CC's 2nd fiddle, for instance.
This being HIS team as a pitcher is something he looks to be proud of. So pack it with excellent #2s and give the man some hitters already.
~G

Freudian Slip??? LOL!!!!

I love how you started the thread, "We axed Rockies Jeff." Okay, throw me under the bus! Great comments. Needed in the midst of the thin air. Common thoughts on how special Felix's arm really is. Felix just makes a hard craft look simple.
As usual Jeff, you take my irrational babbling and paint good thoughts.

I wonder how simple it would BE

If you had four strikeout pitches, and just had to grab the ball and throw one of them.
Seems like the only corollary Felix has ever needed, has been the "don't let them sit on a centered FB" idea. Other than that, I wonder how much sophistication he really needs?
Ax Adair...

So true....

To my naive mind, the best way to coach Felix is not to make him fit your mold but enjoy the beauty of what he has been given in talent. Harness it and watch it succeed. So much natural ability. I hope that the new M's coaches further that goal, not frustrate it. If I have learned anything the last couple of years, it is that too many HS coaches have egos the size of an infield. I have to wonder how big those get in the majors.
Great articles this week. Thanks!!!

steroid era arc suspicions

One thing I would keep in mind when comping steroid era PITCHER arcs is that strikeouts come hand in hand with high HR rates, (always have). While the chemistry set may have added a foot or two to the baseball in flight - the CHOICE to go for those two extra feet ALSO generated the acceptance that fanning more was acceptable.
In 1986 NL K/G peaked at 6.01 - and went DOWN through 1993, (5.88) with a low of 5.69 in 1988.
In 1994, Ks jumped all the way to 6.32. (abberation), and leapt again to 6.61 in '95. Ks eventually peaked in 2001 (6.92). By 2005, the K/G was down to 6.49.
However, K/9 has started going up again since 2008, reaching a new all-time him (NL) this season of 7.4. The AL peak is 6.9 in 2009.
The point is not that Felix can or cannot match Schilling's arc. The point is, we KNOW we've just gone through a time period where the final stat tallies are screwed up. So, utilizing the stats from this era as comps has it share of problem.s

Ya, K rates have always been unpossible

... to compare across eras.
15 years ago, asked James about his "all great pitchers have strikeouts" mantra. What about Warren Spahn? How'd he win Cy Young with 4, 4.5 strikeouts a game?
;- )