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Its just hard to visualize Ackley not developing into an impact player.
He'd either have to be horrible defensively or just develop no power at all. Either scenario seems unlikely.
Ackley's projection as an All-Star 2B
We axed, how many middle infielders have .400-ish OBP's --- > and aren't considered stars? Forget about HR's or SB's. How many do .380-.400 OBP, play 2B-SS, and aren't stars?
G sez,
That number is zero. The reason I didn't use .400 as a defining characteristic is that it's practically impossible in the modern era. Chase Utley has done it once.
... .400 OBP as a 2B in 500+ plate appearances has been done 47 times in the last 40 years. Not by 47 people, 47 times.
So about once a year it happens.
Places ten to twenty on the list go from .424 to .411: Knoblauch, Randolph, Alomar 3 times, Morgan twice, Biggio twice, Rod Carew and Luis Castillo.
Morgan did it SEVEN times since 1970.
Alomar did it 5.
Carew did it 4 times before switching to 1B.
Biggio was also a 4-timer.
Randolph had a 3-peat.
Knoblauch twice.
So of the 47 times it's been done in those 40 years, 25 of em (or over HALF) were by those 6 guys.
.400 from the middle infield isn't cute or nice or a bonus, it's historic.
Multiple times? Start counting HOF votes if he has ANY power or lasting ability.
~G
Wasn't quite aware that .400 was *that* rare from a little guy (who doesn't terrify with a 40-homer threat), but figured .385, .390 or so was more feasible.
I think your .370 benchmark is probably spot on. In the modern game, there aren't a lot of Wade Boggses left...
I'm conditioned by my experiences in the 1970s and 1980s with Joe Morgan, Boggs etc, though of course they were exceptional in their own times, too...
Boggs used to do .450+ routinely, in Fenway, but within the last 10-years it is indeed that .370-.400 range that seems to put infielders at the front of the pack...
You bring up Robbie Alomar ... now see that his OBP was .371, with a handful of times he touched .400. If Ackley can make a run at that, he'll be making a run at a HOF'er...
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G again, asked about his personal projection on Ackley's power, sez
Do I think Ackley can find power? Sure. So could Ichiro or Boggs, but they didn't. They chose not to. ... when a guy can hit single-digit HRs like Carew and Boggs and be a HOF player, I don't need to be greedy.
... All those guys played forever and got 3000 hits. I kinda think that's being greedy too, but I don't know what to do about it. I have to downgrade his skillset to find comps for what happens if he never finds power ~G
I don't think the high expectations are a function of rooting for the home side; they're a function of the fact that the Mariners put Ackley at second base. If he were playing LF, a .300/.375/.450 line would be far more pedestrian.
Put anybody who has an outfielder's bat, into the MI, and you'd like to be his agent.
Ackley's EYE and HIT ability are once-in-five-years, as evidenced by his draft position. The M's have never had that at 2B/SS. For Mariners fans to project Ackley as an impact player is the logical thing to do.
.................
Strange that there was an argument about Ackley 2B. One more mark of honor for Capt. Jack - his insistence on deploying impact players, rather than safe-production players.
There are poker players who are real good when playing for matchsticks, but who run scared when anything's actually at stake. You can sympathize with the M's co-GM's who line up a Spring Training full of Washburns, Silvas and Batistas and then dreamily walk around basking in the MLB(TM) soundness of their rosters.
Zduriencik is interested in being better than the other clubs, not in being equal to them.
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Good stuff,
Jeff
Comments
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Number of 2B with an OPS+ over 110 since 2000: 65.
Number with an OBP over .380: 18.
Still only a couple of guys a year. But there were only 4 batters in that decade who managed an OBP over .380 and didn't have an OPS+ over 110. It's hard to do.
OBP gets you that OPS+ even as a low-powered middle-infielder.
By the way...
Number of batters with an OPS+ over 110 and an OBP under .360: 16.
That makes basically half the 110+ OPS+ bats between .360 and .380. That's the sweet spot.
Under .340? 7. Alfonso Soriano has two, Bret Boone and Dan Uggla have one each.
The only way to get that OPS+ number without walking is to have tons of power.
OTOH, being able to take a walk means you can be a long-term starter at the position without needing much power at all.
Ackley should be an instant success with nothing more than his expected walks.
If he can club some doubles, he's an All-Star. HRs? He's a legend.
This position switch was genius. Now he just needs to make it work, because his skillset is suited to keeping him productive at the position for a long time if his glove will let him stay there.
~G
PS - it's annoying when posts are deleted any my replies go into the ether, never to be seen again because I "replied to a deleted post." Any way to capture those? When I can't cut and paste from email or editor and have it keep the format but I lose posts that I typed into the text window, it gets frustrating.
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:- ) Present company notwithstanding ...
How many M's fans will be able to visualize him as a bust if he doesn't hit .350 his first trip around the league?
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Don't think I've deleted posts with nested replies, but perhaps we were crossing intersections at the time...
Sorry amigo... will be aware of that, next time exchanges are going up fairly close together...
Nothing more frustrating than crafting a post like one o' yers, and then having it become a complete waste of time...
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Here's a specific case, where I've got real enthusiasm for that "3 points of SLG equal 1 point of OBP" school of thought...
Where you've got two middle infielders with 105 OPS+, somehow the guy going .380 OBP seems the far more valuable... Not sure I could articulate exactly why...
Figgins posted the .395 OBP with a mere 110 OPS+ in 2009, and finished 10th in MVP. That was at 3B, no less.
For sure the high OBP is going to give you the high James RC/27. Figgins can create 6, 7 runs a game with an OPS not much above average.
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So, how is his defense? Currently and projected. I keep hearing conflicting reports. Some are encouraging and seem like he should be OK to better than OK at 2nd. Then I read someone like Calas who says Ackley will never play 2nd, cut your losses and move him to CF now.
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His college coach says that he'll be not an okay, not a good, but a *great* second baseman.
Initial M's reaction was, wow, he looks very fish-in-water there, for a recent conversion.
SSI presumption is, large mammals small mammals. I think it is, and always has been, a non-issue. Since Mike Fox signed off.
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Ackley is a STUDENT of the game. This cannot be overly stressed. Guys like Soriano, (Lopez, Yuni), or on a different plane - Vlad -- are physical freaks.
Ackley is NOT a physical freak. Ohh, he's gifted. His ability to read ball/strike in a nano-second is certainly a very rare commodity. But, what he DOES based off that ability is probably EQUAL parts natural physical athleticism and unwavering drive and focus.
There are probably HUNDREDS of kids his age with 100% of his ability in terms of simply swinging the bat and making contact with ball -- or in reaching out and snagging a ball with glove. "Athletically" Ackley is a solid specimen of which there are hundreds scattered throughout the minors.
Ackley's true genius - which made him the best hitter in college baseball - is above the neck, not below it. He has an unrelenting drive to learn, to improve, to adjust, to GROW, to be just a little bit better tomorrow than he was today.
The only REAL question in regards to Ackley in the majors is NOT his eye - but his average. Utlimately, he'll be able to run 100 points of patience in the majors. That's a given. The first unknown is what will his baseline BA be? To carry a .400 OBP with 100 points of patience means he *HAS* to hit .300. Within 2 years of hitting the majors, Ackley *WILL* figure out HIS personally optimized approach that pushes his BA as high as he is capable of. Maybe that is .300 ... maybe only .265.
But, Ackley's trip doesn't end there. AFTER maximizing his walks - and maximizing his BA - THEN, he'll look into increasing his power. This is precisely what he did at Carolina. It is predictable, because (like all humans), he is going to continue utilizing previous approaches that have worked until they stop working.
It was really no surprise to me that he didn't immediately show any power at West Tenn. And it wasn't much of a surprise that his power increased in Tacoma (or that his walks dropped and Ks went up a bit). He's like Charles Emerson Winchester in cleats -- he does one thing, he does it very well, and then he moves on.
The SCARY future is -- given a 100 patience baseline -- and let's imagine - a .280 average. That's a nice .380 OBP -- but likely very little pop. After he's comfortable at that stage, THEN he jumps from Ichiro power to Gutierrez power, (or he might only move to Kotchman power initially). The key is, when he DOES add some HRs to his .280/.380 line, the competition gets a little more leary of challenging him -- and the likely result of that is a jump from 100 patience to 130 patience and you've got Bobby Abreu playing 2B for you at that point.
The "likely" path for Ackley is one where he "gradually" moves from good to very good to OMG over a period of 3-5 years.
My only hope is that if he's "only" a .340 OBP guy his first year, or if he follows up a good year with a bad year the fans (and press) don't get overly absorbed in what he is NOT. He's *NOT* an athletic freak like Griffey or AROD. The reality is he is way more Kotchman than Griffey (from an purely athletic perspective). But, that's not a bad thing. Ackley's gift is his mental toughness - and ultimately, that is Kotchman's burden, and why he failed - and why Ackley will succeed.
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Ackley is not going to WOW you at 2b but he is going to be a solid every day player that will be fun to watch the athleticism and he is going to remind you of Jeter in the end. Jeter was this skinny kid and still is that just plays to win. Jeter is not a wow iSS and he was quite the butcher at SS in his first year in the minors. I also think that the Mariners have it right having him work on his base stealing. He is going to score a lot of runs and be a model teammate. I can't wait. MLB Saturday night you can watch him in the AFL.
John
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the Yankees were laughed at for 10, 15 years because Jeter was a bat-first middle infielder who didn't always impress with the glove. Meanwhile, Jeter was a 1st- or 2nd-round AL-only roto draft pick the whole time.
The Yankees knew that he wasn't going to be a glove-first player, but you don't have to have eight glove-first players in your starting lineup.
...Might put some pressure on the M's to get fancy D at short, or at least [1B + 3B], if Ackley turns out to be the #11 second baseman in the league, defensively.