Q.  Cool article by Spectator, positing that six big draft picks won the Giants a World Series.  Does the mainframe agree with this?

A.  Agree 100% that these Giants are a super useful template for Jack Zduriencik's own roster.

A.  Agree 95% with the observation that 5-6 golden boys, and a pedestrian 20 players, can win the World Series.  I might even quibble that maybe Jonathan Sanchez, and certainly Brian Wilson, were not key ingredients -- reducing the number of golden boys needed to about 4, maybe 4.5.

A.  Agree 101% that a Stars & Scrubs template, for a $100MM roster, is a big competitive advantage.  Stars Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Co. are about as far from Civics Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista and Jose Vidro as Nevada is from peaceful, friendly elections.

A.  Agree 92% that building from the draft is a frictionless way to go.  Assuming that you include international signs like Felix in this.

The Giants couldn't have afforded to buy Cain, Lincecum and Posey off the market, and didn't need to.  They did get Zito, Burrell, Rowand and those guys well after their sixth years, but those guys were second wave.

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Q.  How easy is it to get the next 20 guys, after you have the first five?

A.  Spec sez,

For the most part, frankly, the other guys are nothing special; or, at least, not guys that a skilled GM couldn't stitch together with a reasonable budget.

He's right.  The Giants had a 95 OPS+ despite a 130 from their catcher.   Six (6) of their 9 hitters were below average.

Just one more triumph for clean living (and Stars and Scrubs).  Even Silentpadna could pilot a run at the World Series if you spotted him the first five players that the Giants have.

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Q.  Is the Giants' leap from 2008-09 ... or their 2009-10 jump ... more instructive vis-a-vis Seattle?

A.  If you look at the 2008 Giants, I think you'll be stunned at their similarity to this year's Mariners.

The 2008 Giants had an 82 OPS+ ::dry heaves:: with absolutely nobody they'd keep for the 2010 run.  Well, Aaron Rowand.

They had a Felix-level, Opening Day monster who fell to them because, despite throwing 95 mph the day after 140 pitches in college, he was ... well, short.

They had a second starting pitcher, Matt Cain, who maybe wasn't as good in 2008 as Michael Pineda was in 2010.  :- )

In 2008, those two pitchers did the Giants little good because they had (1) a weak 3-4-5 rotation and (2) a terrible bullpen.  So their ERA+ was 102.   They shoulda lost a hundred games.

Here, let's split that out:

• 2008 Giants:  83 OPS+, 102 ERA+ ... 94-loss Pythag
• 2010 Mariners:  79 OPS+, 100 ERA+ ... 103-loss Pythag
• Matty, tell me why those six numbers don't go together
  

But, whatever.

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Part 2

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