July 2012
Perhaps the kids feel like the room's been ventilated?
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/12
20 Comments
Q. Does Dr. D like, or dislike, Ichiro on a personal level?
A. He's one of my five favorite people-players of all time. In many respects he, more than any baseball player I've seen, has upheld the human morals, ethics, and principles that a baseball organization should stand for.
He's kind of a Mr. Spock of baseball. Mr. Spock would have approved of Ichiro's tenure in Seattle. What's not to like about polite, dignified, restrained, considered professionalism?
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Q. Does SSI believe that it's a coincidence that, the very instant that Ichiro left the Mariners, they started playing joyfully... Read More
Dr. D is bullish
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/12
17 Comments
Q. What is the general consensus on Logan Bawcom?
A. That he's a reliever with a certain amount of upside, decent fastball good slider, who will likely pitch in the bigs at some point. And who at any rate didn't deserve to make the top 20, or particularly close to it, in LAD's org prospects list.
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Q. Does SSI vary from this consensus?
A. Actually we'd be kind of excited about this pitcher. It's not so much what he's done - though what he's done is consistent with impact relief in the bigs - as it is his pitching template.
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Q. His template being what?
A. The basic Jonathan Broxton,... Read More
Cali League stats should be disCOUNTed not disMISSed
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/12
4 Comments
Q. What is the general consensus on Leon Landry?
A. That he's a prospect who rated about #20 to #30 in the Dodgers' system. That he's a fast center fielder with a plus HIT tool, no BB's at all, and maybe some gap power. That his .600'ish SLG doesn't count at all because it's in the California League. And that the Mariners have 9,000 guys who should be ahead of him in line.
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Q. Does SSI see Landry any differently than everybody else does?
A. Not too much, but there are three plusses here that haven't been discussed:
(1) He's a Zduriencik pick. Give me ten generic prospects, and tell... Read More
Iwakuma proves Orel right
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/12
6 Comments
Q. What happened out there?
A. Iwakuma's 82-83 MPH slider was popping a parachute. Never mind the fact that it was diving on two planes, down and gloveside. The Jays were done before the pitch ever got the chance to break. Iwakuma would double-clutch, twirl the foot, fire the arm forward, the Jays would flinch for the fastball and ... whoosh, yank went the yo-yo string.
The effect was pretty weird. I've never seen an 82 MPH slider used as a straight change before.
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Q. Still, why should a plus slider mean 13 strikeouts. The Jays had 18 swings and misses and another ten checked... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/12
Q. How big is one game with 13 strikeouts? Objectively, now.
A. Show me one Anthony Vasquez game with 13 whuffs. Or one Luke French game. Never happen.
There's a lot of study and discussion on Bill James Online lately, this very issue: how much does it mean, one truly awesome performance by a rookie pitcher? To what extent does it tend to predict that the kid's not lousy-but-lucky? Answer: Anthony Vasquezes don't have games with 13 whuffs. Pretty much they don't.
Like we sez, Iwakuma just set the 1977-2012 Seattle rookie record. There's a reason no rookie did it. You can't throw 18... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/12
Q. Remind me again what the problemo was supposed to be in spring training?
A. His fastball was a little short, his slider was a little mushy, and in the NPB he'd been used to throwing everything low and away. MLB(TM) bullies stood on top of the plate, so the barrels of their bats were over the outside corner, and gleefully took the nibble-and-pick soft stuff off the fences.
There was a cultural bias involved, in assuming that Iwakuma couldn't learn to come in on their hands, and to take them up the ladder. Iwakuma has, in July, disabused snooty Americans of the notion that he was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/12
1 Comments
Q. So. Did Blake Beavan take a plateau leap, or did he not?
A. He did, yes.
Or, he did if he plans to pitch like that, anyhow. His game on the 27th went wayyy beyond a simple decrease in fastball percentage. Beavan's "slider" was (1) a lot better, and (2) woven into the fabric of his game like he'd been using it for years.
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Q. Wove the slider into his game, like what?
A. Just to take a f'r instance ... well, three f'r instances, back-to-back-to-back in the fifth...
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Against the LH Eric Hosmer, Beavan whipped the arm forward for a fastball strike one ... whoop, the ball... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/12
3 Comments
Q. If Beavan pitched like this, then what?
A. In this one particular game, Beavan was about as close to a mimetic polyalloy as it is possible for one pitcher to get to another. He apparently sampled Ian Kennedy by physical contact and deployed the new chassis to terminate the Royals.
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Q. What do the two have in common?
A. Beavan's defining attributes were:
Excellent command and exquisite control - after 5 IP he had 47 strikes vs. 12 balls
90-93 MPH
Straight fastball, movement not a factor
Fastball thrown up in the zone (only pitchers with low GB% need apply. No Saunderses, Cahills or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/12
11 Comments
Q. Wow, two good starts for your old whipping boy Blake Beavan. What could possibly go wrong?
A. The thing that Dr. D fears the most is that Beavan will start using some breaking pitch other than his slider.
He's got a curve and a change, nominally, but they need to be stowed. Today's pitch mix was, er, pitch-perfect: 61 fastballs, 29 sliders, and 6 curves sprinkled in and he made sure to bury them.
The slider is improving on a game-by-game basis, too. Last year it broke back to about 0" by 0", like a cutter. His first two starts back out of the minors, it broke 2" by 2". July... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/26/12
19 Comments
Going into July 31, 2011, JasonVar's grass had been mown four consecutive starts. KO'ed in the 3rd and 4th in two of 'em, blasted for 12 hits in another one, and racked up for 6 runs in the fourth. He was shorn so the bare dirt and looked like an Eastern Washington putting green.
Not coincidentally, when Zduriencik attempted to pawn him off to neighboring league GM's, they pointed at the other doggies in Z's window. As SSI constantly reminds, July form weighs heavily. No, it isn't that baseball people are dumber than you and I are, but they're closer to the situation and it's a nervy game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/12
Q. He looks all right to me. Why does he have only 70 IP at the age of 33?
A. Supposing that Josh were the second coming of Luke Gregerson, Carlos Marmol or Jeff blinkin' Nelson for that matter, he still would have had an easier time getting on to the U.S. womens' gymnastic squad than into MLB(TM).
He has half-a-dozen 230-lb. weirdnesses to him, any one of which bought him a heapin' helpin' o' trouble with the establishment:
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1) His money pitch is not a fastball. "By not an out pitch," we mean that his fastball is too slow, too straight, and too wild for right hand setup. Do... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/12
Some situations are solved with a cuddle
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Q. As Peter O'Toole said after one glance at John Goodman: "Quick, Hobson, the good news!"
A. Kinney has a real wipeout slider. Its run value is ridiculous. And he's not afraid to throw two sliders for every one fastball.
The slider comes from behind the whirl of beefy body parts, suddenly materializes from behind his ear and the brawny right arm snaps through like 97 MPH. Then the ball pops a parachute and ... eyes slideways. Heavy Jeff Nelson action here.Confusingly, he throws a variation on the 82 slider, the variation being a 77 "curve... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/12
10-Zip
Zero being the number of balls off the plate that Iwakuma had called for strikes, and 10 being the number of pitches on the plate that Iwakuma had called for strikes. Well, five were actually in the zone, and five more nicked the zone if the green square represents the center of ball that has some displacement in physical space.
Iwakuma threw 92 pitches, and of those 92, 10 were changed from strikes to balls. The other 82 pitches were, as a group, much more centered or much more off the plate, and much easier for the Yankees to decide about. (Ivan Nova gave up 6 walks also.)
If you'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/12
2 Comments
As far as the template - the attributes and resources - go, our comps will need to mosh off the following defining attributes. We'll pair off the sparring partners if they're packing these heights and weights:
Signature changeup or split
A variety of -- at least two other -- very mediocre pitches. (ONLY putaway pitch is the change/split/gyroball)
Short fastball. Gonna give up HR's
Plus command (we may safely assume, once Mr. WBC is comfy in his rocker)
World-class poise and, probably, excellent pitchability (consider how quickly he cobbled together some tough starts)
Hm. Jeff Francis is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/12
24 Comments
And arigato, Champ!
We wonder if this customized Japanese-to-English translation appeared anywhere else on the 'net tonight.
Surprising that Ichiro gave such an open, forthright explanation of his own motivations for leaving. He was excruciatingly polite about it, but the opposite of "stimulating" is "dampening" and "stifling."
In a karmic coincidence, yesterday happened to be the day that we posted our most reverent praise ever. Ichiro has the spirit of a samurai, a sense of honor and integrity that invests even the tying of his shoes and the oiling of his glove with a spiritual... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/12
11 Comments
M's fans are in a froth about the radical realignment under discussion - no, not the Astros realignment. The Ackley-to-1B realignment. ... By 'in a froth' we mean that they're clicking onto baseball sites twice a week now instead of once a week.
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Quick Mail-Order R/X on Chase Headley
You know how right hand hitters grow progressively more demoralized at Safeco as time grinds them down. PETCO in San Diego can do that to lefties. Headley's swing shape, and batted balls, had become warped by the electroshock that the park has applied to his lefty* swings:
Age
HR per Fly Ball
expected Power... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/12
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=== And Now a Word From Our Sponsors, Dept. ===
Last weekend, the Klat team hooked up with a posse of supachill New York web moguls. Straight out of The Social Network, man - these guys got places to be and people to meet. They were packing 16-megapixel Windows Phone cams, their million-hits-a-month website, a down-to-earth attitude and they axed us if we felt like introducing them to the ballpark. Well, I guess so. We can move back our Blake Beavan writeup by another day or two.
The Roosevelts dot com is a sort of Esquire meets GQ meets Sports Illustrated meets the 21st century, it's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/12
1 Comments
Is baseball The Game Of The People? Gerry Tsutakawa's 'The Mitt' burns the idea down the pipe with a rather heavy, er, hand. Fans are welcome to sit in it, lean on it, and generally do any damage they feel they can manage against a gigantic bronze sculpture that could, if it wished, topple over on them and wreak its vengeance.
Dr. D actually finds this sculpture to be annoying. On several different levels. But I'll give it this: there can be no question as to the Mariners' sincerity about extending Safeco Field's reach to as diverse a group of people as it possibly can. On that, er,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/12
Now, here's a visceral statement that Dr. D can sign off on. Ries Niemi cut out dozens of stainless steel figures that adorn the exterior fences of the ballpark. Pictured is one of the eight cutouts that deliver, as you go down the sidewalk, a strobe-light capture of a pitcher casting a javelin, er, baseball.
This would be very nice art in any context. But affixed as these silhouettes are, to the vaguely prison-like bars that protect the interior of the park, they evoke images of ... what?
Images of Roman gladiators within, of course! Like Jack Nicholson told Kim Basinger. Death? I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/12
Dr. D isn't an art critic; he just plays one on webTV. But then, you'd found him out as a sabermetric poser too, so you were expecting that. One thing we will say in SSI's defense - the Mainframe is not only a blunt instrument on the culture crunch. It can appreciate subtle, feminine art if the core concept appeals.
I found Helen Lessick's 'Ephemeral' to be a bit puzzling, quite a bit challenging, and, on discovery, satisfying. Pass the Brie, Hodgson. There's a good lad.
Jeffy hasn't yet gotten to 'ephemeral' at Lookout Landing yet, so here are your SSI pre-test crib notes. By '... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/12
The Good, Dept.
Some Japanese fans thought that Hisashi Iwakuma was going to perform better in the majors than Yu Darvish, and by extension, that Daisuke Matsuzaka. The 2008-11 Iwakuma ran an ERA in the low 2's, starred in the WBC, and wielded seven pitches, all separated from each other by several MPH. Read them and weep:
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Iwakuma's finish-'em-off pitch was, if you believe the internet and why would you not, a forkball. He got to two strikes, it was Brandon League city. But before he got there, he also had a precision-located fastball ... and in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/12
5 Comments
Surrender now? Or do you still require incentive?
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The Decent, Dept.
Our own post-Texas script axed Iwakuma to get him some respect, as Moyer and Vargas and Maddux and etc. had to do in order to pitch with 80-something fastballs. To go inside and up the letters with the fastball, and then to go below the knees with breaking pitches on two strikes.
In the first inning Friday, Iwakuma-san seemed to be (inadvertently) following Dr. D's prescription. His very first pitch to B.J. Upton was a crisp fastball letter-high, where Upton might swing underneath it. As opposed to "pitching to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/12
... okay, okay, maybe the Rays didn't exactly sweat a death machine out there. They did sweat 7 strikeouts, though
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Aaaaaand Heeeeere's Mr. WBC-San
Iwakuma had drawn his katana and set his back foot against his lumbering but mean-spirited American attackers, and I flat enjoyed watching the skirmish evolve. In the booth, they were beginning to back off their (admittedly justified) "let's see if he can survive" tone and sort of quietly watch to see what was going on.
The second out of the third inning, came The Pitch that stood the Rays' boxing team up for chin shots... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/12
M's fans swoop in for some heavy WBC action?
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Dr's Prognosis
The Rays aren't the 2001 Ichiro-Edgar-Boone Mariners, nor even the 2012 Texas Rangers. Nah, LrKrBoi29, we're not saying that one quality start against the Rays puts Iwakuma back into the $100M powerbroker game.
It ain't even that Mr. WBC-san ran a 6ip 6h 2r 2er 1bb 7k line. It's about the fact that he demonstrated the ability to miss bats. Let's chart his pitches as thrown Friday night:
Fastball
90-93 sustained 100% ... much more "hop" ... good command
Shuuto up
Foul ball or three-bouncer virtually guaranteed. +3.5 run value... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/12
23 Comments
The Mariners are scoring 4.96 runs per game on the road this year and 2.86 at home. I wonder whether this would be the largest home/road split ratio ever? ... theory is that Safeco, where the wind off the sea blows LF-to-RF, creates an updraft effect that makes batted balls hang in the air (as Mike Cameron first noted). This results in super-low BABIP's and low HR per fly ball percentages. The Mariners' young hitters are routinely quoted as very frustrated; Seager's splits especially are horrific. Worry is that the park is getting into the young players' heads too much and threatening to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/12
=== Every Breath You Take, Dept. ===
... every move you make
Every step you take
Every single day
Every word you say
Every game you play
Every single day ...
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PHX Terry sez,
Serious question - Doc: It appears to me that generally you have been a supporter of Wedge and his decision-making. If I am mistaken in that regard, I apologize.
However, if I am correct and we total up: 1) Wedge's refusal to play Jaso at the beginning of the season despite Jaso's demonstrated credentials as a strong platoon hitter against RH pitching, 2) His refusal to play Wells at the beginning of the year... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/12
4 Comments
Dr. D enjoys a good "manager drive-by" as well as the next saberdweeb
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Start with the understanding that successful MLB managers do many things at an incomprehensibly super-competent level. By "incomprehensibly" we mean that it's difficult to even understand their skills, even if we have them explained to us carefully. Personally, I'm not claiming to understand how Bobby Cox could, despite a tough-guy approach, keep control of the Atlanta Braves for 20 years.
Some of these many things include:
Making sure everybody plays hard
Making sure all members of the 25-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/16/12
15 Comments
Don't get the idea that SSI is trying to prop anybody up
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Amigo axed about "lineup decisions" talking, mostly, about whether Wedge shoulda had Jaso and Wells in there sooner. Good question. But first, a word from our sponsor about "lineup decisions" generally. From Bill James Online this week:
Hey Bill...The Reds are a strong playoff contender this year, but the first 2 batters in the lineup (Cozart, .298) and Stubbs (.286) have not just horrible OBP's, but the WORST OBP's out of the typical starting 8 (Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Frazier, Ludwick/Heisey,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/12
Hey, who put the Mentos in my $100M cola contract
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=== Wormhole Back In Time Four Months ===
Mr. WBC-san looked okay from the TV screen in spring training. His numbers weren't bad either: he threw 15 innings in Arizona, with 11 whuffs and 3 walks issued. His arm looked reasonably healed up and the radar gun was pleasingly solid.
That's from the TV screen. Down in the dugout they had a full panic on. To them -- by "them" we mean Wedge, Zduriencik, all the catchers, and all the opposing hitters -- Iwakuma looked like a batting-practice pitcher.
As Geoffy finally disclosed later in the year... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/12
We had that 14-8, 3.44 season almost within our grasp
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=== July 15: the Rangers in the Batter's Box ===
If Iwakuma were a good pitcher, and the Mariners buried him on March 15 or 20 anyway, that would be one whale of a feebleminded player evaluation. Jack Zduriencik not known for feebleminded player evaluations. So we sat down for Iwakuma's start with an open mind. Let's see what there is to this idea that batters are fighting to get to the plate and detonate Mr. WBC-san, shall we.
Roll the DVD.
::blinks::
Sure enough. The Rangers are right. on. top. of the plate. They are taking... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/12
5 Comments
The exact moment of breaking the sound barrier, or of breaking 7.0 strikeouts per game, one of the two
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Q. Is this situation fixable?
A. I would be very confident that it is.
Iwakuma has many ways to keep the hitters honest - to prevent them from leaning out over the plate and crushing outside-third pitches. He is capable of doing these things, too.
Jamie Moyer kept hitters honest despite an 87 MPH fastball ... why? Because he would zip a stinging little straight pitch right on the inside corner, hand-high. No leverage there. He could saw off hitters at will, and they absolutely... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/12
2 Comments
raise your hand if you like drafting third
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=== Scouting Is Not an Exact Science, Dept. ===
... it's not an exact science, and neither is it an inexact science. It's not a science at all. Outside of a few dominating players at the top, the rest of it is guesswork and intuition. And the process does not work NEARLY as well as most fans assume that it does.
Siems axs,
Honest question here. Or should I say questions? If Romero really is the man among boys that you suggest he is, why did the M's wait until the 12th round to nab him? Why did other major league teams let him drop out of the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/12
6 Comments
PHX Terry sez,
Hey, Doc - Do you expect Zunino to crack the Top 100 Prospect Lists? If so, that would make 9 Mariner candidates for these lists.
Will defer to Gordon on 100% of the questions below AA, on 90% of them in AA, on 80% of them in AAA, and a good portion of them in the majors. Hey G ... how many of the top 5, top 10 draft picks typically wind up in the winter top 100's? The top 6 or 8 are usually there unless there's some good reason why not, correct?
Spec, do you have anything current that you can link us to, on Zunino?
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Hmmmmm. Seedlings to Stars last year... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
2 Comments
=== Stefen Romero for Dummies, Dept. ===
If you're new here, Romero is a 6'3", 225-lb. "second baseman" who was drafted 12th round in 2010, broke his arm, and couldn't play in the minors that year. Last year, 2011, he debut'ed as a pro and hit well, not great, at low-class-A Clinton.
Coming into 2012 he was, basically, unranked. He hit .350/.390/.580 at High Desert, but most pundits blow off all High Desert results because it's a hitter-friendly environment. Neverthless, scouts were beginning to say, hey, watch this guy.
Romero, 17 games ago, was promoted to the high minors, AA baseball. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
3 Comments
In picture #2, below, Romero moves from address to load:
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If you run the video again ... 2:38 on this reel ... you'll get a sense of the delightful way in which Romero subtly but decisively stretches the left foot away from the right hand. Isn't that a Twister game or something? Left foot red, right hand green...
I wish that more baseball players -- ahem there, Mr Saunders ca. 2011 -- realized that they don't have to JERK their front feet up and STOMP them back down into the ground. Romero's front foot wouldn't juice a grape. The tension is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
5 Comments
The tragedy occurs as Romero proceeds from load into launch. If you just joined us, you missed the first two articles, which are rolling off the swing recorded at 2:38 on this video ....
Okay, here's that ready (load) position again -- check the position of his head at T minus a fraction of a sec:
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Now as Romero fires the bat, his head has already travelled toward the pitcher by about 8-12 inches. He needs to be hitting against a firm front side, as is true of all baseball hitters and as is true of all golfers, but check the degree to which the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
Q. Cool Papa Bell asked whether you thought that Stefen Romero would become "the next Jose Lopez?"
A. Having studied Romero's swing for a half hour, that turns out to be an uncanny suggestion. Either Cool Papa was sandbagging us, or he got REALLLLLY lucky :- ) or his intuition paid off in silver dollars.
Jose Lopez was (1) a big, strong second baseman / third baseman with (2) an uncommonly fast bat who (3) had a world-class gliding problem. Jose was, ah, "mobile" in the batter's box, as Romero tends to be right now.
Jose's knees were flexed, he was on the balls of his feet, and he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
2 Comments
Q. So he must be doing something right?
A. Heh! Dr. D stared and stared, at swing after swing. There was the gliding. There was the little rubber-band stretch. There was the compactness and surprising power. But there's something weird here, somethin' ... whass' goin' on?
It hit me one swing when trying to screen-grab his bat out in front of home plate. There was no way to capture his bat in the positions I wanted. On any swing, anywhere on the internet.
Then in fast motion, the batspeed! You can't miss it.
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Q. Batspeed meaning (1) perceptive speed, or (2) launch speed, or (3)... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
Jason Churchill's site would be 2 Legit 2 Quit if it had nothing other than Jason's interviews with minor-league experts. I'm not talking about unsourced comments so much, but when guys like Pedro Grifol give him material that can be attributed... well, the site's worth a visit for that alone.
In this excellent PI article, Pedro Grifol publishes his own evaluation, as it were, of one Stefen Romero. Dr. D, who is Pedro Grifol's biggest fan outside the Safeco shot-calling offices, will kibitz. Says Grifol:
"[Romero] has extremely strong and quick hands, tremendous hand-eye, with torque,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
1 Comments
Q. What are Romero's chances to be an impact player in the major leagues? As a percentage?
A. I don't know. Maybe 20%, 30%.
Any number of guys have done what Romero has done, to this point in their careers, and never even made the majors. His career accomplishments are not yet impressive. Intriguing, sure.
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Q. Career accomplishments not impressive? He jumped to AA and slugged .677 in his first month there.
A. Actually, in his first 17 games. Since when do we move a guy from #35 in his own org, to top-100 in all of baseball, based on 17 games? ... Heh! :- ) you know what I mean... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/12
8 Comments
Q. Why would an otherwise stable individual sit and type 5,000 words about a minor leaguer who is playing 3,000 miles away?
A. You'll remember our year-long retirement in 2008. Send fan mail, and hate mail, to the mighty Klat. For better or worse, their Frankenweenie resurrection has us once more deep-sea diving on esoteric M's issues. And don't think we don't love youse amigos for red-circling the mistakes. Considering the way the Safeco losses are piling up, even the Frankenweenie voltage might not get us up off the slab if it weren't for youse cyber-friends whose comments are usually... Read More
Wears No. 51
Posted by Spectator on 07/12/12
7 Comments
Am I wrong, or isn't the unspoken premise of both the "Justin Upton" and "we need a veteran bat who can OPS .800" threads this: Ichiro is toast.
In other words, aren't we admitting that Ichiro is not a veteran bat who can help? Aren't we admitting that Ichiro is not a key part of the outfield going forward?
It sure looks that way.
We know this: now that the dust has settled, Ichiro 2012 (.261/.288/.351) looks an awful lot like Ichiro 2011 (.272/.310/.335).
And we know this: that ain't no everyday right fielder (emphasis on every) in major league baseball in any other town.
So ...
1. Do... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/12
14 Comments
- "If I played in New York, they'd name a candy bar after me," Reggie said during his A's tenure, believing Baby Ruth and Oh Henry! to be named after baseball stars. He was 33% right.
- "I'm the straw that stirs the drink," Reggie charmingly opined after he became a Yankee. "Thurman thinks he's the straw, but he can only stir it wrong." If you're thinking that Justin Upton is a character of Reggie's magnitude, or that such egos preclude winning, we recommend a good history book.
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Q. Does the mainframe grok Jack Zduriencik as serious about Justin Upton?
A. It does... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/12
19 Comments
Q. Would Upton's power swirl the Safeco Field toilet, suffering a lingering and repulsive decline, before disappearing into the sewer forever?
A. Picture's worth a thousand words, baby. In this case the picture being Upton's 2011 home runs, home and road, overlaid onto Safeco Field:
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Q. Sure, but some of those balls might not travel as far in the air if hit here.
A. Correct, but you're missing the point.
Upton hit 31 home runs last year with an average distance of ... wait for it ... 424 feet. Average distance!
The typical major... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/12
6 Comments
Q. Upton's plate discipline numbers were different in his breakout year, and now they've flipped back again.
A. It's tough for sabermetricians to grok this, but the "plate discipline" coin has two sides. (1) Not swinging at the wrong pitches. (2) Swinging, with gusto, at the right pitches.
You'd never get the charming li'l guys to sign a confession to this effect, but by "plate discipline" they are really thinking of walking more. Or maybe of reducing their swinging strike percentages. ... More elusive, and maybe more important, is the idea of swinging with gusto at the right pitches.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/12
6 Comments
Q. What's the scouting report on his swing? Does the mainframe go for his mechanics?
A. Big time. Upton is in the Casper Wells, Alex Liddi type mold that we've discussed in the past. Maybe Upton's a little better than them. The principles are the same.
Wells and Liddi take advantage of unusual natural strength to create short paths to the baseball. Upton takes this to another level. In this video, he hits a 457-foot home run with almost no load at all.
His head is quiet, his body is calm from knee to shoulder, he "keeps one point" and simply takes advantage of his physical attributes... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/12
5 Comments
Q. What are the - realistic! - LO, MID, HI scenarios for Upton? Barring injury, but be serious here.
A. The HI scenario is given by Shandler. A player who gives you 40 to 50 homers, along with a .300 batting average - and he runs also. Juan Gonzalez has always been the comp I liked.
On the other hand, I don't favor the Dick Allen, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson scenarios. A guy like Dick Allen was slugging .600, OPS+'ing 180 from his early 20's and he just stayed there. You've got to admit that Justin Upton's resume is pretty up-and-down for a Hall of Fame player. If I'm Jack... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/12
14 Comments
=== Viewed through the W/L, ERA Paradigm ===
Noesi was 2-11, 5.77 when they pulled the plug.
For those of you under 25, that statline is shorthand for 2 wins, 11 losses, and 5.77 earned runs allowed per 9 innings. For those of you under 35, a gentleman named Mike Parrott once went 1-16, 7.28 for the 1980 Mariners before they took him out of the rotation to ensure that he wouldn't lose 20 games.
Left in the rotation for 2012, Noesi would have had 15-16 more starts in which to go (say) 2-9, with five no decisions, and finish at a glorious 4-20, 5.77, a statline that would have lived -- as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/12
The fruitcake may be thinking the same thing there, Brett ...
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=== Viewed through the Pitch Arsenal Paradigm ===
It's never been clear to me why Noesi is viewed as having elite stuff. But that's how he is viewed. Baseball men think he has, more or less, a Michael Pineda arm. Just a few days ago, Jack Zduriencik told Geoff Baker that three or four Mariners had showed the right stuff "in spurts," and in this handful of names he included Noesi.
I don't get this. I don't mean "I disagree with this and take it as more evidence that baseball people are stupider than bloggers." I mean that the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/12
4 Comments
=== Gopheritis ===
Erasmo Ramirez learned, like in two games, that --- > if you're going to miss your spot, miss it OFF the plate. Not into the heart of the plate.
Noesi just doesn't seem to care enough to focus on this. If he's in the mood, say to David Ortiz, he'll bear down and make sure there's nothing good for Ortiz to hit. But if he's feeling lazy, he'll just chuck it in there and go "do what you're gonna do." That's not my opinion. That's everybody's on the field.
Gordon pointed out the RISP numbers early on. There's a parallel in golf, for a guy in the sand, who hates sand... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/12
2 Comments
Want 8,000 words' - that is, 15-20 SSI posts' - worth of lively sports info-tainment? Not a single one of which glorifies Hector Noesi's elite stuff and 1.9 gopher rate?
Hruby Tuesday has an op-ed on sports fixing. He had me at Elliot Kalb. Kalb (1) wrote one of the most important books on sports fixing, and (2) met blogger Hruby wearing a polo shirt with a Super Bowl XL logo on it. Heh!
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In the 8,000-odd words of the blog post, Hruby must run through 50 different alleged sports fixes, including --- > the 1985 NBA lotto that sent Patrick Ewing to New York ... Michael Jordan'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/12
2 Comments
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Two things always confused me about the Super Bowl XLrefereeing: (1) Why did the league believe they could be so daringly obvious with their script manipulation?
It's one thing to take a tight game, and make one or two controversial calls that swing the game. It's another thing to take a 21-point win, and turn it into a 10-point loss, with a series of eight or 10 howlingly obvious referee'ing mistakes.
Any soccer mom - of which a billion were watching - could see not only the bad calls of Super Bowl XL, but also the gameflow. Seahawks charge, take back control of the game -... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/05/12
1 Comments
=== In Baseball ===
Two big takeways for the Mariner fan here.
(1) The baseball fan is fortunate, in that that umpires have much less ability to decide games. Not only are their decisions subject to much better forensic analysis, but -- as Baseball Prospectus has shown -- their decisions play a relatively small part in impacting the game. It would be tough for an umpire to change a 5-3 win into a 6-4 loss, when all he has to work with is a handful of ball-strike calls and a few inches' margin.
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(2) The largest forces in sports care about money, not about on-field competition.
... When... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/12
20 Comments
Q. Says who?
A. Geoff Baker with a well-thought-out argument on the subject. He, in full-on Pragmatist mode, emphasizes using Wilhelmsen to offload Chone Figgins.
The article is original, well-supported logically, and initiates an idea that is going to have traction. I'm sure that if this post occurred, word for word, on any major Seattle blog that it would be followed by about forty Fantastic Post, Dude's.
;- )
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Q. Is Wilhelmsen going to be perceived as a Certified Closer?
A. In baseball, you're closing when you're closing. (MAN ALIVE I love tautologies. That's going to be my... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/12
"Felix' fastball, which is usually really straight, was cutting today." - Adrian Gonzalez, in response to a question as to why Felix was unhittable, June 28, 2012
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Q. Why the semantic debate over Felix' cut fastball?
A. Naming pitches, naming pitches, naming pitches... people have been arguing about the right names for star pitchers' weapons since, oh, about 1880. It used to be a lot more popular than it is now.
The fact that we're arguing about whether Felix' inward-breaking fastball is a "cut" fastball is actually a refreshing blast from the past. People used... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/12
Q. IS this a "cutter" or a "Four Seam Fastball With Ridiculous Movement?"
A. 4-seam fastballs break armside 5 inches, and up (relative to vacuum) 8 inches. I would use "Four Seam Fastball With Ridiculous Movement" to describe something that broke OUT a lot more than 5 inches or UP a lot more than 8 inches, wouldn't you?
Brandon Morrow's four-seam fastball rises, at times, 12 inches. That's a "Four Seam Fastball With Ridiculous Movement." It moves in the direction that a 4-seamer does, but more so. Isn't that what "Four Seam Fastball With Ridiculous Movement" describes?
On the other hand... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/12
1 Comments
Q. Does Felix' fastball move ridiculously?
A. IT DOES NOT. Thanks ever'body! Drive home safely!
Felix' four-seam fastball, for his career, sails out -5.8 inches and rises +7.8 inches. This is absolutely industry average.
This year? AFTER HIS LAST START, Adrian Gonzalez -- who plays in the American League and plays rather well .... shook his head angrily and said "Felix' fastball, which is normally real straight, was cutting (today)." That, from the batter's box, was the issue. Felix' fastball was cutting.
Saying that Felix Hernandez' (old, four-seam, armside-tailing) fastball has... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/12
2 Comments
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Q. Why does everybody say that Felix can't throw a straight pitch?
A. Well, A-Gone doesn't say it. He says that Felix' fastball is pleasantly straight.
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But! You're an SSI reader, and you're aware that Felix' changeup truly does have "outlier" movement to it. Nobody else throws this dry spitter, which is both higher-velo and sharper-breaking than any other change in baseball.
Felix' overhand curve has a lot of break and it is verrrrrry sharp break.
Felix' 86 slider has more break than average for a slider, AND it is thrown... Read More