raise your hand if you like drafting third

.

=== Scouting Is Not an Exact Science, Dept. ===

... it's not an exact science, and neither is it an inexact science.  It's not a science at all.  Outside of a few dominating players at the top, the rest of it is guesswork and intuition.  And the process does not work NEARLY as well as most fans assume that it does.

Siems axs,

Honest question here. Or should I say questions? If Romero really is the man among boys that you suggest he is, why did the M's wait until the 12th round to nab him? Why did other major league teams let him drop out of the first ten rounds? There had to have been a bigger flaw than "weak front side/gliding" that knocked him down so far.

Does anyone have any insight into this?

Oooh!  Oooh!  I have an insight into it!  ::raises hand as high as possible::

I have an insight into it!  It wasn't that he had big flaws.  It's that his specialness was (mostly) invisible.

Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round.  

Ian Kinsler was drafted in the 17th round.

Jose Bautista was drafted in the 20th round 

Raul Ibanez was drafted in the 36th round.

Adam LaRoche was drafted in the 29th round.

Mike Piazza, Jeff Conine, and Kenny Rogers were all drafted 39th round or later.

Russell Martin was drafted in the 17th round.

Roy Oswalt was drafted in the 23rd round.

Dan Uggla was drafted in the 13th round.

Jason Bay was drafted in the 22nd round.  Here's a good article by Jerry Crasnick with several of these names and stories.  

Placido Polanco was drafted in the 19th round.

Brandon Beachy and Heath Bell were undrafted.

James Shields was drafted in the 16th round. ... should we do this for another fifty players or do we get the point?

.

=== He Who Humbles Himself Shall Be Exalted, Dept. ===

Now if you were a scout and you took the Craig Wright angle ... "in this industry if you're right 60% of the time you're leading the field" ... let's say that you scout for a living and you said, "Hey, Jeff.  We do the best we can.  But it's just not possible to look at a collegiate Stefen Romero, and see his wrists, and distinguish those from anybody else's.  We try and spot the guys with something extra, but we're mostly just guessing.  If you get two or three players out of 30 picks, you're doing great."

If you humbly said that, I'd argue with you and exalt you.  "No, you were a Mariners scout and YOU were the guy who liked Stefen Romero and Vinnie Catricala and Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, more than the other 29 orgs liked them.  Yes you were guesstimating.  But your guesstimates are extra-class."  That's what I'd say.

Now if a scout exalted himself and argued, "You Mariners fans are Listening To The Wrong People (Beezelbul, how the scouts love this phrase!).  It is scouts, people with ML badges, who Understand.  Listen to us.  Listen to no one else."

If you said that, I'd argue with you and abase you.  Because scouting, beyond the top 25-50 players, is guesswork.  End of story.

.

=== Dumpster-Diving ===

Edgar Martinez, had he been subject to the draft, would have been drafted extremely low.  If Romero turned out to be the next Edgar, minus a few walks, he would have slid for reasons similar to those that kept Edgar in the minors for so long.

Scouts aren't very accurate at identifying Edgar Martinezes at age 19.   The Mariners have the best scouts on the planet, but it just isn't humanly possible to identify Edgar Martinez at age 19.  That's one thing the minor leagues are there for:  to identify the best players.

Chuck Knox was once asked why the Broncos were so brilliant, drafting an All-Pro linebacker in the 5th round.  "If they'd have known he was going to be an All-Pro, THEY'D HAVE DRAFTED HIM IN THE FIRST ROUND," Chuck said acidly.  

Remember that the Mariners passed on Romero in the 10th round; they didn't know who Romero was going to be.  It's just that their dart-throws are a little closer to the bulls-eye than other orgs' are, these days.  I'll take it!  Churchill recently called Romero the M's best draft pick ever, under this admin.  Yes, best, and luckiest.  In the 20th round of a rotisserie draft, the winners give themselves a chance to get lucky.  Dumpster-diving is a skill, too.  The Mariners have been kicking dumpster and taking names.

The fact that Romero was drafted in the 12th round?  That means absolutely nothing as to whether he could become an All-Star.

.