Q.  What are the - realistic! - LO, MID, HI scenarios for Upton?  Barring injury, but be serious here.

A.  The HI scenario is given by Shandler.  A player who gives you 40 to 50 homers, along with a .300 batting average - and he runs also.  Juan Gonzalez has always been the comp I liked.

On the other hand, I don't favor the Dick Allen, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson scenarios.  A guy like Dick Allen was slugging .600, OPS+'ing 180 from his early 20's and he just stayed there.  You've got to admit that Justin Upton's resume is pretty up-and-down for a Hall of Fame player.  If I'm Jack Zduriencik, I'm most definitely not paying you for Frank Robinson here.

For this reason, if there's somebody "safer" than Upton, some Adrian Gonzalez type out there somewhere, I flat go for him over Upton.  Upton is a breathtaking talent but he's not as bankable as some guys.

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On the other hand, the LO scenario that is popular out there, his slugging .434 for the rest of his career ... um, no.  Watch a game.  ;- )  Ruben Sierra is the poster boy for everybody who got fat and lazy after 23, but Upton isn't fat and lazy.  A lot of All-Stars have ebbs and flows.

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Lemme break it into two, not three, scenarios.  The 75% probability, that you get 3.5 years of Lance Berkman, Jermaine Dye, Richie (good) Sexson, Jay Buhner, Danny Tartabull production.  And the 25% probability that you get an MVP.

Well, gingerly put a 10% wedge (not that kind of Wedge!) in there for Eric Davis-style injury problems.

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Q.  Dr. Detecto would pay what, exactly, for this?

A.  You're talking about this year, and then three (3) more years, with Upton being way underpaid.  You've got to admit it's worth a premium package.

Now, other bloggers will always post their own org top-10's and tell you "without the guy I have ranked #1, there's no chance of this trade happening.  Zero."  Was that true of Cliff Lee?  Is it true of half the deals you see go down?  Half the time you've got to go look up the minor leaguers, am I right?

There's no real difference in the values of Hultzen, Taijuan, and Paxton.  Bloggers are all about the Flava of the Month - who was good last week.  GM's don't work that way.  I think if I'm Arizona, I'd rather have Hultzen than Taijuan, having just seen Hultzen at Cheney, and knowing I could start Hultzen next week for the home fans.  But whateva.

I guess I'd give one of my Big Three.  Are they guaranteed to give me more than what 3 years of Justin Upton are worth?  Then of course you add other talents.  

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Q.  In 2010, Baker reported that they asked for the M's best two players, Pineda and Smoak or something.

A.  Tell you something about big bidness, amigo.  You can ask for anything you want.  And you can keep your property.  People do.  What do you want for your little chain of five restaurants?  ... oh, well, my grandpa started the first one... how about the Space Needle?

I don't notice that the Diamondbacks actually moved Upton last time, do you.  In real estate, it's the sold listings that count, not what somebody's asking for.

::shrug::  Arizona could ask for two of the M's top five; there is nothing stopping them from asking double Upton's value.  And they could keep their player again.  The thing is:  ownership is supposed to be done with Upton.  There's an imperative to do something, or so we are told.

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If you can base the package around Nick Franklin, great.  If you can give three real good prospects who aren't in your top 5 ... as Zduriencik in fact did for Cliff Lee ... so much the better.

I'd like to see Zduriencik give 4-5 good players - Catricala, Erasmo, Triunfel, Wilhelmsen types - and keep his Big Three.  You ain't talking about the Justin Upton of November 2011 here.  The guy is struggling.  We'll see what MLBTR leaks the next few days.  

Cheers,

Dr D