Cleveland

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Q.  What happened out there?

A.  There are times in sports, when an average player has a great day.  

Nate McMillan had 25 assists one night; Freddy Brown had 8 steals in one half once; Steve Blake threw out 14 assists in one quarter.  Matt Flynn threw for 500 yards his last time out.  I think Dan Doornik ran for 100 yards in a playoff game once.

Humber was an average pitcher, pitching great.  He was at the very limits of his performance capabilities.  Some guys score 40 points once; the difference is, Kobe Bryant does it 100 times.

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Q.  What was the arsenal?

A.  The game reminded me, all the way through, of Brian Holman's near-perfect game.

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=== Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===

M's right now are tied for the wild card.  :- )

There's a thought floating that the 5 wins against the A's don't count.  You think they'd have counted if the Mariners lost them?  Suppose the M's were 3-and-8 right now.  Would that be taken as indicative of anything?  So why doesn't a strong 6-5 record indicate anything?

No, it says here that the Mariners have played mondo tough the first 11 games.  In 9 of those 11 games, they've faced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers.  (Colon is real strong in the first half, and Colby Lewis was on fire.)  If anybody had offered me 6-and-5 right now, I'd a said "in a heartbeat."

That said, the Cleveland Indians are an average-solid team, in a neutral home park*, and we face an average-solid three RH starting pitchers, taking these three as a group.  The Indians have won 20 of their last 28 at Safeco.  Check the bases gained and bases lost after the series is over, and it will have been a good test.  I expect the M's to show that they are at least average-solid themselves.

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=== Justin Masterson, Exec Sum ===

He's been underrated.  He's an extreme groundballer who still racks up 7 strikeouts a game.  Would you want one'a those for the Mariners?  Back in 2010, for example, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was #18 in the American League, and in 2009 it was about the same.  His ERA's were higher than that, camouflaging his ability.  

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Per Rosenthal.

I'm delighted!  My favorite thing about it is that the Wild Card is now worth 50% of a division title, not 98% of a division title.

The MLB Wild Card, maybe for the first time in sports, becomes the scrounge position that it is supposed to be.  That, to me, is the most important thing about this decision.  The ratio between the WC and division slots has created beauty and symmetry at the end of the season.

Are you aware of any other sport in which a Wild Card has been devalued appropriately?  This 50% proportion is very elegant:  the Wild Card will be a red-headed stepchild, and the division will be front-and-center.  The Red Sox and Yankees (or Rangers and Angels) will, even if wayyyyy out in front of the AL, still battle hammer and tongs for the division.

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=== Clash of the Titans === 

Under the new rules, Godzilla vs Mothra wild card games are going to be part of the fabric of baseball.  And the AL, there are three truly fearsome aces:  Verlander, Sabathia and ... Felix.

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This rat cheer:  POTD Kevin Millwood 2

Precious few 37-year-olds can still slice off a cut fastball.  Kevin Millwood's elbow ligaments are made of leather, and his pitches still break two ways, left and right.  He still has (had, at last sighting) the plus command.

Combine 4-5 pitches with command, and with MLB(TM) moxie and you've got a pitcher who WILL be effective.  We're not talking about a #6 finish in the Cy, but if Millwood comes to camp throwing 88-89 mph, you can bank the 2.7 WAR.

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=== Rode Hard, Put Away Wet Dept. ===

If you ax an MLB insider what is going on here, this is what he'll say.  The thing about both Iwakuma and Millwood is that they were both down to 84 at times last year.  It's more than possible that either, or both, is kaput, that's all she wrote.  SOME spring will come in which they're clocking 84 mph, lousy command, just done done done when your daddy takes your fastball awayyyyy...

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The 1995 and 1997 M's made the playoffs; in 1996, without Randy Johnson, they didn't.  But under the new rules, 1996 would have been one more shot for Junior and Bone.

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=== Seattle Mariners ===

Do you realize that the 2007 Mariners, the 88-win club with Batista, Washburn, HoRam, and Jeff Weaver flanking Felix, that they would have made the playoffs?  That team had a lineup jammed full of above-average hitters.

Well, they sort of made the playoffs.  They would have had a playoff with the #6 team, the 88-win Tigers, and the winner of that game would have had an elimination game with the 94-win Wild Card1 New York Yankees.

Looking back at the schedule in 2007, the M's would have burned Felix on the last day of the regular season to beat Texas 4-2.  

Then they'd have had a hot Jarrod Washburn go against Detroit in the elimination game.  If Washburn had won that one, Miguel Batista would have gone against the Yankees in the Bronx ... 

And then if the M's had won that, they'd have entered the 4-team AL playoffs against three 95-win teams:  Boston, Cleveland, and the Angels.  :- )

Hey, they weren't going to survive all that, but c'mon.  As the rules were, they just went home without a fight.