Monday Afternoon Machiatto, 6.12.17

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M's 0, BLUE JAYS 4

A shame that we got back to .500, had our Spahn and Sain going, and things didn't work out.  Thass' OK.  MLB is a hunnerd games long; you gotta let the odds work in your favor over a long run.  You can't "force" a victory as in the NFL.

James Paxton is throwing 93% fastballs when behind in the count.  That means on his off days, great lineups can stalk the 2-0 counts and try to put good swings on a challenge fastball.  Donaldson managed an off-field HR doing that on Sunday.  Of course this doesn't work when Paxton is throwing 40 of 50 pitches for strikes, LOL.

Also, it took Zunino about 50 pitches to figure out that Paxton's foshball was the change speed he could throw for a strike that day.  I put a lot of the problem on Zunino's slow adaptation.  But, yeah, if the hitters get a "perfect storm" against Zeus they might get three or four runs that day.  It ain't real easy to finish with a 1.99 ERA in the modern American League.

Dr. D's confidence in Zeus:  absolutely unchanged.  But it frosts him to see a team nick him for a paper cut on his destined 15-4 record.  :- )

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Gaviglio, Bergman and Moore vs MLBtm Vets

In the water-cooler chat, one cubicle to your right, Mo' Dawg wonders if we might not be better off with the 3-4 starters we gots already.

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Bergman's better right now, too. He was creamed in one start, but has been nails recently, otherwise:  25 innings, 17 hits, 3 ER's. 

Gallardo is scheduled up on the 12th and Bergman the 13th, but Moore wouldn't throw until the 14th, which is Gaviglio's start.   You could move Bergman and Gaviglio up a day each...or you look to the 17th in Texas to let Moore bump Gallardo (or the 22nd at home vs. Detroit). 

Hey, I'm kind of to the point where I'm not concerned with Kuma getting back.  Smyly?  Completely off my radar right now ((If he's after the All-Star break, then he's 40+ games away).

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Agreed with Moe's general sentiments as usual.  Agreed with his specific applications as usual.  Kicking the ball down the soccer field in the 2 v 1 breakaway:

1)  Christian Bergman didn't have his great change speed game last time out, but he had legit Doug Fister(TM) tri-fastball location rather than fuzzy Doug Fister tri-fastball location.  It was nassssssty.  His fourth pitch was a hard cutter/slider that was also a pretty decent weapon.

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Location. Location. Location.

OK, I Shouted this, but maybe it's better as a Post, for all to comment on, scoff at, or ignore.

Matty beat me by miles to the whole Haniger thing, but I beat him by a bit to the Andrew Moore bandwagon.  G's in, too.  Doc, ditto.  Heck, almost all of us.

Moore was great again for Tacoma last night.  Matty said, "Give him the cal!"

I followed with the stuff below:  Chew away.

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Ms 6, Twinkie Weiner Sandwiches 5

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Q.  All you need is love.  And a swing to right center field.

A.  Is it okay to love Zuumball again?  Yes.  Dr. D chooses hope.  Yeah, yeah, we all know the reasons for cynicism on Zunino, on M's first rounders, on the Mariners in general, on life in Seattle as a concept.  But for the next week I'm going to buy in to Zunino's chances again.  Hey, what can they do to me?

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The Kielty-Kotsay-Karros Syndrome

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Moe pointed out that Guillermo Heredia is mashing lefties and Ben Gamel is crushing righties.  Maybe over the next two-three years they will perform even better if spotted for 400 AB's per season each.  Of course you have Dyson and Haniger along with very possibly Boog Powell and of course Tyler O'Neill next year. Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia are also corner players competing for time.

Don't forget that Boog Powell was running an OBP of .441 this year at Tacoma and has a career OBP of .391 in the minors.  Pretty sure Beane would find a way to get him 200 AB's a year.

It reminded us of when Billy Beane used to do this with such amazing success.  For example 2004, Beane's corner players included:

  • Scott Hatteberg 106 OPS+
  • Eric Byrnes 111 
  • Mark Kotsay
  • Jermaine Dye (their Boomstick)
  • Eurebiel Durazo
  • Bobby Kielty 278 AB's
  • Eric Karros and Nick Swisher for parts of the year (!)

Or in 2005 they had all that minus Durazo and Dye, but plus Dan Johnson 113 OPS+ at first for 434 AB's and Jay Payton 97 OPS+ for 291 AB's.  Beane wasn't afraid to ask corner players to share time, that's for sure.

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M's 12, Twins 3

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Q.  K-Pax gave up runs!  And how could this be?

A.  Two things ... first, Dr. D agreed with Kreuger who was spot on, attributing "the ebb and flow of pitching."  Paxton was coming off an emotional high in his first start back.  His biorhythms looked down a tadbit.  

Also, it was a case where the results were a skosh worse than the quality of the pitches deserved.  Sometimes you deserve 1-2 runs and give up 3.  Sometimes you deserve 1-2 runs and give up 0.   That's what it sez here.  ... in any case, you get a "down" game from K-Pax and he stretches his record to 5-0, 1.69.

Was pretty bummed to see that super cheap 340-foot homer break Paxton's homerless streak though :- )

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Jean Segura Extension: 5 years, $70M

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or so the reports have it.  And the graduation caps create a black cloud overhead like Army bloomin' scored on Navy. ... there were already a few celebration comments in the other thread.

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Q.  Is that a "win" financially for the ballclub or for the player?

A.  Who. Even Cares.  On so many levels.

Saber blogs have spent the last 10 years agonizing over the Exact Right Price for this player or that.  Mostly it's an exercise in testing out our math.  Payrolls are not ossified; they are what the ballclubs want them to be.  If you want to post an analysis for us go ahead.

I'll focus on the fact that we have a major star at shortstop for about Gallardo money.  Next six years.  Kyle Seager and Jean Segura.  I got your "rebuild" right here, baby.

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Tuesday Morning Tazoberry

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Wow!  Easily the best column I ever saw from Shannon Drayer.  That's not meant as a back-handed compliment.  In fact am going to keep this post short in order to focus the Denizens over to MYNW, over to Shannon's 6-for-6 night.  The first paragraph and the last are just solid/routine, but the six paragraphs in the middle ... any one of them could have headlined some other MyNorthwest baseball page.  Way to hit the ground runnin' there amiga.

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