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Fantastic signing. Really no other way to put it. That single trade makes up for any of Dipoto's faults this offseason.
One move alone has completely rebuilt the franchise.
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or so the reports have it. And the graduation caps create a black cloud overhead like Army bloomin' scored on Navy. ... there were already a few celebration comments in the other thread.
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Q. Is that a "win" financially for the ballclub or for the player?
A. Who. Even Cares. On so many levels.
Saber blogs have spent the last 10 years agonizing over the Exact Right Price for this player or that. Mostly it's an exercise in testing out our math. Payrolls are not ossified; they are what the ballclubs want them to be. If you want to post an analysis for us go ahead.
I'll focus on the fact that we have a major star at shortstop for about Gallardo money. Next six years. Kyle Seager and Jean Segura. I got your "rebuild" right here, baby.
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Q. What is the correct PECOTA projection for Jean Segura's bat?
A. Who. Even. Cares. On even more levels.
We have watched the guy hit. He's Roberto Clemente in the batter's box. Leave it there. Jean Segura is 200 hits with authority. Like James says, "100 RBI" isn't a stat; it's a Larry Neiman painting. Sometimes the flavor text tells ya more. :- )
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In terms of slashing hard-hit balls all over the park, maybe Jose Altuve is better. Maybe. Other than that, right now there is just nobody better at what Segura does: hit like Kirby Puckett and run like Mike Trout.
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Q. What is the Mainframe's estimation of his defense going forward?
A. Now that's more fair. He's a good sized guy and you might expect him to lose nimble-ness compared to the waterbugs he competes with. Our grok? Jean Segura is a good bit more mobile than we expected. He's also natural at short, like they said, with comfortable and creative footwork/handwork in spontaneous situations.
Jean Segura is a shortstop, a legit one.
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Q. Who's better, him or Kyle Seager?
A. If we're trading, I'll give you even K-Swag before I'll give you Jean Segura, and that's sayin' a whale of a lot. This was just a mondo "get" for Jerry Dipoto. Too bad the M's didn't get anything else in that trade.
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Q. Gotta love that 200 hits type of consistency, huh.
A. Quite a few echoes between Sudden Jean and our old pal Ichiro. Jean Segura is a worthy heir to the 200-hit leadoff spot that Ichiro carved out so nobly with his katana, no?
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Q. How about a celebration video?
A. Here is the 4-for-5 against Colorado:
- An Edgar-type rope down the RF line
- seeing eye Ichi-ball "execution" single up the middle, ensuring an RBI on an 0-2 count
- Frozen rope to straightaway left (dig the symmetry as he hits "workup" infield practice)
- Redux contact single on top of the ball
Or here's a power alley homer with no bat load, or here is his handspeed at short, or here is a cleanup-hitter shot, or here he goes vertical to rob a hit.
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Q. Just for fun: Most Comparable Players?
A. Bill James' original concept here was: if you traded players X and Y, neither team would get better or worse - or even change their style much. So his kinda comp for Segura woulda been any middle infielder who hit like, um, Barry Larkin.
True, Segura hasn't proven his Hall of Fame Type status, exactly. But at this moment in time I'll sure as shootin' take him the first round or two in an AL keeper draft.
For me, the most-comparable players to Jean Segura? Over the timeframe 2016-2021? I'll go with Barry Larkin, Michael Young plus, Ray Durham (for speed), Alan Trammell, that kinda guy. Tell you what, though? Head over to Barry Larkin's b-ref card and tell me what made him better than Sudden Jean?
Granted, Larkin was a better fielder. But Segura is probably actually a better hitter. They're both fast and 5-WAR-comfortably. Of course Larkin actually put a lot of seasons in the record books; can't take that away from him. The M's shortstop situation is LOOKING now about how the Reds' SS situation looked when Lou was there.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Tell ya what, you give me my 3B and SS in roto, and I'll find a way to get a good roster together. Position scarcity: There is no substitute. :- ) Jerry Dipoto just made his own job real easy the next six years.
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Be Afraid,
Dr D
Comments
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The big ticket trades seem to not go so well most of the time for Dipoto (high risk, usually), but all of the quiet deals recently have been aces. Miley for Miranda, Shmoe for Gamel, Shmoe for Valencia, those sorts of deals. The rebuild took a number of things going right to be completed...but no doubt...that one blockbuster winner Haniger/Segura for who gives a plop?...legendary.
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Throw that comment back five years and see what reaction you get. Wow! How the times, they do change.
(And for clarifty - not challenging the assessment AT ALL).
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There's a power word for you. This trade IS looking like a Brock-for-Broglio.
In fact if you get to noodling around Matt, you could pencil out a midrange career for Segura and Haniger, and comp them to some legendary trades. I think Dipoto scored one here.
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In the details of his press conference
http://sports.mynorthwest.com/293305/drayer-mariners-unity-was-evident-o...
"“That just shows the type of guy he is,” Motter said. “Not only is he a good player, he is a good guy. When he goes down the first time he said, ‘This is going to be your spot. Just go out there and do your thing.’ We sat down, had a little conversation with me and then hurt his ankle and he says, ‘Hey papi, same thing. Round two.’ It means a lot to me coming from a guy like that, especially knowing that it’s his job but he’s rooting for me when he’s out.”"
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Yesterday I mused that Segura would get Cruz's money, soon enough. Considering that Cruz gets $14.25M/year for '17 and '18...and considering that Segura is getting an average of $14M for 5 years, it looks like I somehow grokked that one just right.
See, this bidgeting thing is simple. What the heck is wrong with congress! :)
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I thought a Segura extension would be too good to be true.
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Meanwhile this Fangraphs article really took me aback. Cameron trying to frame the contract as debatable, even in free agent terms!!, much less with the club-controls discount. The kind of article that used to fire me up when he worked at USSM.
I try to stay away from criticizing Cameron, but slap me silly. You'd think he never saw Jean Segura play. Almost the ultimate book-smart street-foolish paradigm in this one. Course the guy has 45K followers on Twitter so his career is workin' out just fine.
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Which...
Yeah...
To break even, Segura has to earn 10 WAR. He'll do that in the first two years...three max
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On this one or in general. Not just because I've seen him treat others poorly, though that's a part. There's been times before like this that Cameron wasn't making sense to me. We've got a SS with pop that competes for the batting title. He's not worth 2 wins a year? Ok
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Congress :)
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Fabulous news. The guy is legit, the quintessential pure hitter.
Re: SS play, I would look at it this way. Every year he plays shortstop well is gravy. When he can no longer play it well but still perform acceptably so what if we lose a little gravy. If his body type later dictates a position move, who cares? His bat will always bring value.
I can live with a Clemente or Larkin comp, especially if he starts hitting more homers. My comp, not based on statistics but on my impressions when watching them hit, is Bill Madlock. Both were born hitters, both were gonna fall out of bed and hit .320.
It's sure fun watching games when your team DESTROYS it's opponents. Last night's game shoulda been called on a TKO after four innings.
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I'm pretty sure he'd make a nice replacement for Cano at 2B for quite a few years after he can't play SS anymore.
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Cano moves to 1B, Segura moves to 2B and Seager to DH...their bats keep adding value for many years
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Ditto to you and Matt. When the time comes, move Cano to 1B, Segura to 2B. Then bring in a descendant of Omar Vizquel to play SS.
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Agreed. And we've got the silky-smooth double move with Cano going to 1B and Segura to 2B. Just re-rack them and get way plus defenders at both positions.
TKO indeed DaddyO. :- ) If the M's get it together the best part will be all the SSI longtimers who are moved to rejoin the hobo circle, you and Rick and Taro and sich.
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I've been able to watch some of the games. I'd have to shoot you if I told you how.
I've gotta admit, if the M's truly can sustain turning this thing around (and with all the talent coming back, Valencia and Zunino starting to hit, and Seager not yet hitting his stride, who's to say they can't?), then given the incredible number of key injuries it will be one of the most remarkable seasons of all time.
If Haniger, Heredia, and Gamels sustain even close to what they have done so far, and with Segura locked up, and Seager still in his prime, the M's rebuild is well on it's way.
Dem M's have a way of shooting themselves in the foot, but hey, perhaps this is the year they forget about all that and make the playoffs. Who'a thunk it a few weeks ago?
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Madlock! Wish I had thought of that one!
He just looked like a linedrive, even while standing at the plate.
In terms of SS's, Larkin is a sweet comparison.
Barring injury, Segura is a bargain-basement buy at 5x$14M. What's the league average of $ per WAR? $5M-$5.5M? Segura has been at 4.8, 1.4, 0.7 and 5.6 WAR over the past 4 seasons. He's running at about a 4WAR rate this season, even with the injury time out. Over a 5 year period, he's going to have been worth about 16-17 WAR. He's 27 years old. Two of the last 5 years were terrible, but even if he just duplicates that past 5 seasons, at just $5M/WAR he's still a bargain. As the price of a WAR goes up AND assuming he doesn't have two disasterous seasons, we just bought a heck of a bargain. he must really like the clubhouse and the link with Cano, he signed this so quickly.
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We 1970's NL guys are showing our age. Bill Madlock, Billy Williams, Roberto Clemente, ... Ralph Garr? ... Manny Mota DaddyO right? ... Steve Garvey, Joe Torre, Matty Alou ...
Al Oliver :- )
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I just loved those Pirates teams with Bill Madlock and Al Oliver (along with some other guy named Stargell). Both those guys could flat out hit, one from the right side, the other from the left.
Billy Williams, one of those "sweet" swings. Ernie Banks was always dubbed "Mr. Cub," but I missed the best years of his career. To me that title goes to Billy Williams and Ron Santo.
With Mays getting older, Clemente along with Hank Aaron were the five-tool-est guys in baseball in the late '60's and early '70's. Clemente was the most exciting to watch. What a tragedy when his life and career were cut short.
Ralph Garr was insane. He was Vladmir Guerrero without power, in that he could play golf (with low balls out of the zone) and tennis (with high pitches) like nobody else. They talk about notorious bad-ball hitters. Ralph Garr would hit impossible-balls.
Steve Garvey, no one except a Dodgers fan of the era could fully appreciate what his arrival meant to the club. The club had endured such a poverty of offense for so many years, and they hadn't seen a truly great hitter in forever. Buckner, Russell, Cey, Lopes showed up. Buckner was the best of them at the plate, but none was a great hitter. Garvey came up as a 3b-man and hit so well they converted him to 1B and threw him right in the middle of the order. Instant lineup credibility. No Dodgers fan had felt that since Tommy Davis' best years.
Manny Mota. Great hitter with limited power who couldn't sustain full-time play, but carved out a role as one of the first great pinch hitters (along with Smokey Burgess), setting the stage for Jose Morales to come along for the Expos.
Joe Torre. Though he is in the Hall of Fame (as much for his managerial career as for his playing career), the guy never got full credit for his incredible hitting along with very good catcher play. The guy hit .363 with 137 RBI in 1971. How many times when he played for the Cardinals did I (on TV or radio) see/hear him beat the Dodgers? Once at Chavez Ravine I witnessed it first hand.
Matty Alou. The ultimate speedy slap hitter, a better, more disciplined hitter than Ralph Garr.
Couldn't help but give my version of a thumbnail sketch of all those you named. :)
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I remember them all, Daddy!
There was a point, early in the summer of '74 (had just finished my junior year in HS), when I wondered if garr could make a run at .400. Alas, he fell down toward .350.
But as I check BR now, he hit .351 in March/April and .427 in May. When he arrived at the ballpark on June 1st, he was hitting .387!
That's cool. That's why I wondered, way back then, if he had a .400 shot.
Garr hit .307 over his his career, with a .339 OBP. Garvey, much the more well regarded, hit .297-.329. Garr slugged .416, Garvey .446.
Garvey's best single figures (in any season) were .319, .351 and .499. Garr's '74 line was .353-.383-.503!!!
Yet time has largely forgotten him.
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Are lining up almost perfectly with Jeter. Just saying, he seems in my mind like a similar SS bat and glove.
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The price of a WAR has gone to $8.0M hard on the barrelhead amigo. Now how does Segura's contract grab you?
And it's estimated to climb to $9.0 - $10.5, per win!, over the course of Segura's deal. He will be paid for 1.5 WAR every season.
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. . . but darned if I can think of a single shortstop with that body type.
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Segura could become our Tejada, great great extension. Now we just have to tell him to stop attempting to steal bases, maybe keep him in the lineup.
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Segura could easily be worth twice what they're paying him
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Different places calculate it differently as you know. Just curious, where do you go for the $7M value?
Fangraphs valuation is running right around $7.9, $8.0 million ... here is a table sorted by value. Trout 3.3 WAR and $27M, Conforto 2.5 WAR and $20M, etc.
Here is another valuation that projects the cost of a WAR at 9.0, 9.5, 10.0, 10.5 the next four years. This one is a little dubious.
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I was hoping you'd chime in Matt as to the cost of a win. Welcome the discussion. I wonder how to fix the cost definitely in view of Fangraphs' apparent $8.0 per.
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I was quoting the 2016 free agent price point that I remembered (technically, it was 7.2 M)...I see the rate of rise has accelerated again.
I think it's a little nebulous to peg an exact value on it, but would cheerfully pay 8 M per expected W and not feel cheated. The general point, though, is that Segura need like 9 or 10 W at most to break even on this deal...why would Cameron think that's dubious?
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Great deal for both sides. Segura leaving money on the table, perhaps, but it states Segura is happy here and the Mariners are happy with him. Segura, at an age, where another decent contract possible. Dare I say "Chemistry?"
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SS Larkin = Segura
3B Sabo = http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saboch01.shtml (My that's an interesting name as the #1 career comp for Chris Sabo, now isn't it?)
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That is an epic find.
I think the Seager-Segura comp to Sabo-Larkin has legs, no? Lessee, what other parallels to the 1990 Reds, Suburbs? They had one great Opening Day pitcher and meatballs around him IIRC ... maybe you should write a guest post ...
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The nasty boys.
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The Reds Opening Day rotation featured
Tom Browning (30), Opening Day Starter
Jose Rijo (25), 2nd Starter and
Jack Armstrong (25), 3rd Starter.
Danny Jackson (28)
Armstrong had a breakout first half, won 11 games, WAR of 3.0, and was the NL's starter in the All Star Game. Browning won 8 games with an ERA- of 73 in the first half, but was fanning less than 4 per 9. Rijo and Jackson also managed to produce at better than league average in the first half.
But then Armstrong's arm fell off, after producing those 3 WAR in the first half, the start-crossed 25 year old managed only 1.3 additional WAR over the rest of his career. Browning's kept fanning less than 4 and his ERA regressed to what his skills suggested (ERA- of 129), but he won 8 more games anyway.
What saved the Reds' season were three things: (1) Rijo's emergence as an ace (He was basically Paxton-level-good from the 1990 All-Star-Break to the ends of 1994), (2) Pinella's hairbrained idea to slot set-up Nasty Boy Norm Charlton into the rotation (where he made 16 starts of ERA- 66 baseball), and (3) the bullpen, the bats, and being in a mediocre division.
If you'll recall, the Bash Brother A's were clearly the best team in baseball, and defending champions to boot. The Reds swept them in 4.
I'd be okay with sweeping the Astros in the ALDS.
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How did you ever know, Grampa 'Poto?!
I need to find something new to agitate about, apparently.
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"I need to find something new to agitate about"
Many of our causes de jure seem to have been taken care of. One glaring cause remains. Have AT IT, my friend!
That 11 million dollar man (OUCH!!), the man who predictable has pitched like an arsonist...GALLARDO, GONE!
DiPoto thought he might get 200 innings of 4.50 ERA and, with this offense, a record near .500. Instead, if left in the rotation, he will likely get 140 IP, an ERA well over 5.00, and even with this offense, a loser of 2/3 of his games.
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Please
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For those who don't want to click over: 2-0, 3.15, a 30:8 control ratio in 32 innings, an 0.93 WHIP.
Roughly. Going off memory checking earlier. The point is, Andrew Moore hits me as a guy who's going to run RELATIVELY the same stats in AA, AAA, and MLB.
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Gimme a 3B, SS, a glovey CF with a bat (we have a couple of candidates), a booming COF and a HoF 2B who might slide to 1B someday.....and even Jack Z. could fill in the pieces. :)
Eventually Cano gets real expensive.....figuring on a batting decline in 2020, or so. But until then, we have some things going for us.
When we were 20-27 I posted that we had to go 68-47 to get to 88 wins, a reliable WC qualifying number. That meant we needed to run at a 59% cliip. 59% over a season = 96 win. Odds were low.
Since then, we've gone 9-3. We're now at 29-30. 88 wins demands a 59-44 finish.
We've bought our needed finish down from a 59% clip to a 57% clip.
While that now seems WAY more likely.....we've still some work to do.
Just a reminder.
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This entire Jean Segura acquisition and extension for me is JeDi's defining move. He put the Mariners on the receiving end of a swindle, and he signed a franchise bat to reasonable money. All in a few months.
Hope Segura gets healthy soon.