How Many "Mistakes" Does a SP Throw Per Game?

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James Shields rued the moment he left an 87 MPH cutter out over the plate against Robinson Cano on Friday.  Here's a point we think is worth making very clear.

The interviews might leave you with the impression that pitchers only throw one or two "meatballs" per game.  The actual percentage of pitches left middle-middle or middle-up is 22% of all major league pitches, not 2%.  Don't let them tell you that pitchers can hit their spots to within 2-4 inches each time, and that walks are tremendous flukes.  I don't know why MLB managers and pitching coaches say this after the game, "He just made the one mistake," when they certainly know better than that.

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To the sandlot...and beyond!

I'm not sure what brings me more joy than to know that young boys are out there having fun playing baseball. I prefer sandlot ball, without adult supervision, where boys learn to cooperate, take turns, and work out the rules of fairness. They learn to think: the rules of baseball are designed to make sense, in a spirit of cooperation. If you don't know the rules, you can usually figure them out, and get a consensus based on an internal logic. And if you have to adjust them, it's for the better.

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M's vs White Sox less one jose quintana type

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... rather be watching the White Sox than the Astros or Cubs on Friday, that is.  Speaking as a James Paxton fan.

We link, you decide.  Here is a Paxton-Shields preview worth your time.  Plot spoiler:  if there's such a thing as an AL team you'd love to start your 2H with, it's lurking nearby.  Also, here's a ICYMI reminder that K-Pax' last start saw the return of Zeus, who is now 7-3, 3.21 despite the nicks, dings and youthful travails.  He's got a FIP of 2.85 and a WAR of 2.5, so Dr. D still waits breathlessly for the 5.0 mile marker later in the year.

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Out of sight, out of mind?  Not at SSI.  Here's a quickie on Dan Vogelbach returning to the 2H with a 2-hit day; he's batting .283 but the real news this week was 'Bach's prodigious performance in the AAA homer derby.  Dr. D has had zero questions about Bach's hitting, none at all, other than power.  He's laying those to rest.

It's not like Danny Valencia is owning it at first.  StatCast has his "expected batting average" quite a bit lower than it is, and even if that's not fair, his WAR is 0.2 this year.  Valencia is helping the club, especially with the mitt.  But with Boomstick's ankle gimp, don't be shocked when 'Bach gets to looking really good in a stretch and he's bach up in a platoon.

And the Mainframe will be glad to see it.

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Impact, Eh

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This link from the Mariners' official site is a read worth reading, if you are a Mariners fan and you read.  If not you are unlikely to be offended by SSI's presumption upon your prefences.  Dipoto again Diploys visuals that are highly to Dr. D's liking:

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"I don't think you'll see us add on the position players side, but we are going to go through the course of the next few weeks and see if there is a way that we can add to our pitching staff," Dipoto said. "Whether that is in the bullpen or rotation is TBD, but we know somewhere on that 12- or 13-man staff, we have to find a way somewhere between now and Opening Day 2018 to create more depth and impact with the group."

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Baseball Semantics

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Dr. D is not the sort of chap who enjoys wordsmithing as an exercise in fault-finding.  Looking at word choice as a way to add flavor or insight?  Sure!  Give me double potatoes and give it wings.  As a grammar-police way to establish intelligence?  Go on ahead without me.

But this is the rare occasion where, for some reason unknown to me, a phrase kinda gets to me.  And it does James, I guess.  The first item in his public article "A Little Too Long to Be a Tweet," May 31 2017:

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Andrew Moore's 'Revolutionary' 3rd Start

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FIRST 2 GAMES:  PESSIMISTIC MAINFRAME

You know what we mean by pessimistic.  That Moore was going to be extremely limited in terms of star power.  A quality starter, yes definitely, but with a 6 foot 6 inch ceiling on his ERA cubicle.  ... And why's that, you say?

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In Moore's first two games, his 82 slider and his 76 change curve were "basically never swung at and missed," as Brooks aptly put it.  Not only did they generate no whuffs, but what was worse, they never had batters off-balance at all that I could see.

Since his fastball is very ordinary, hitters could afford -- Dr. D believed -- to look fastball and easily adapt on-the-fly to his slider and curve.  ML batters are not going to swing through fastballs they are set for.  So what do you do for a K.O.?

Point three, his change is supposed to be his best pitch, but he was much wilder with that pitch than with his other three pitches.

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Quality Starts, Junk Stats, and our Sense of Proportion

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QUALITY STARTS

We saw some good amigo, a smart analyst, complaining about Moore's first two "quality starts," that's a junk stat.  Because 6 IP, 3 ER, who cares about a 4.50 ERA?  Refutation:  How do we count the Ways.  :: sigh ::

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1)  Since when does ERA know its feet from the roots on a tree stump.  ... Really?  A saberdweeb pointing to ERA in order to bring us up to date?  :: sigh ::

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2) 6 IP, 3 ER is a minimum.  Suppose we told you Mike Zunino was about to go on a 40-game hitting streak, right now.  Would you find this prospect to be acceptable?  "um, no, who cares - that means he'll hit .250 in some of the games."  :: sigh :: See?  Take 20 quality starts in a season and you're going to win 12-15 of those games.

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M's 3-4, A's 4-0

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ALL APOLOGIES, Dept.

Didn't have much of a chance to get to the shtick on Saturday night or Sunday.  But here's a comment stub amigos.  Hope that Aces Triple-Wired over the last three days will provoke a few chip-comments into the ASB pot?  :- )  Dr. D is not usually given to hyperbole, but he expects Moore to rip off the next 100-200 quality starts in a row, at a minimum. 

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