How Many "Mistakes" Does a SP Throw Per Game?
About 30% of his pitches, to be candid

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James Shields rued the moment he left an 87 MPH cutter out over the plate against Robinson Cano on Friday.  Here's a point we think is worth making very clear.

The interviews might leave you with the impression that pitchers only throw one or two "meatballs" per game.  The actual percentage of pitches left middle-middle or middle-up is 22% of all major league pitches, not 2%.  Don't let them tell you that pitchers can hit their spots to within 2-4 inches each time, and that walks are tremendous flukes.  I don't know why MLB managers and pitching coaches say this after the game, "He just made the one mistake," when they certainly know better than that.

Actually 22% sells it way short.  What about slow fastballs that are middle away, "out and over" as they say?  What about changeups and sliders that miss inner third?  What about falling behind 2-0 and throwing a fastball to a good spot, but into the place a hitter is looking?  You get the point...

So it was just the one pitch left over the plate, then, James?  Here is your zone plot for the day ..

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I definitely do not blame pitchers for failing to hit Triple 20's on a dart board.  They're 20 yards from the target, not 8 feet.  I am merely baffled at why this convention persists, "He only made one mistake."

We are not slighting the ability of pitchers in the major leagues.  Those guys are superHUMAN in their ability.  But you as an SSI Denizen see a different game than the one commonly reported on TV.  ;- )  Check out Silver's article linked above.  He did a great job dissecting The Art Of The Mistake Pitch.

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GRATUITOUS FAWNING, Dept.

Which is one reason that Dr. D is so partial to starters who have really good stuff.  A 97 MPH pitch that drifts over the plate isn't quite as tasty a meatball as one thrown at 91.  James Shields might throw 30 tasty pitches in a start, and that's fine.  It's a lot less than some AAA pitchers would throw.  But Chris Sale throws very few "tasty" pitches.  You can't teach nasty.

The fact that we are not watching tournament darts is why --- > James Paxton matters, and it's why closers all have nuclear stuff.  Pitchers miss their spots a lot.

Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

1

...everybody has those days. * winces at own pop culture reference* You know, the days when you have to go throw pitches to Robinson freaking Cano, and he doesn't let you get away with your mistakes.

You know, the more I watch baseball, the more I realize how much of good hitting is just being able to capitalize on those ~30% mistake pitches more often than your peers. Some guys only go back-leg-special on like one in ten tasty pitches. Others can only hit rocket singles when the get them. A whole ton of being a superstar is just hitting the crap out of a good portion of the middle-middle pitches you get, and defending yourself adequately the rest of the time. Just ask Nelson Cruz. I love, love, love that his game is largely built on back-leg-specials and blooped singles to right. He plays both offense and defense at the plate, and in such a pleasantly intuitive way.

Moreover, I think the idea that almost all hitters make their hay by exploiting frequent mistakes is particularly illuminating to why bad-ball hitters are so unspeakably fun to watch. Hardly anyone is really out there doing consistent damage on pitcher's pitches. That's why guys like Ichiro, Vlad Guerrero, Beltre, and… Jean Segura, are so breathtaking. We're used to seeing guys tee off on meatballs. We're used to watching them defend themselves from pitcher's pitches, like when Robbie cuts his swing down half way through and plays tennis with the left fielder. But to see guys go up there and play offense with stuff on the corners or off the plate? And to do so consistently, and with great success? That's one of the true joys of the game, I think.

Five more years of Sudden Jean. We're lucky.

2

Good pitching beats good hitting EXCEPT when it doesn't.   Isn't this really what makes baseball the great game that it is.  The battle between pitcher and hitter and all of the possible outcomes that battle produces.  It's what makes watching baseball games so interesting.   Who says baseball is boring?   Only those who fail to grasp its intrigues and subtleties each time the pitcher faces a batter. Baseball is the great pastime IMHO.

3

The average MLB pitcher misses his intended location by 11" per pitch. Pitchers with great command miss their intended spot by 5-6"

Which...what that says is that MOST pitches are mistake pitches. :D

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