Baseball HQ on Matt Kemp
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Q. What is the BEST case scenario in a Matt Kemp deal?
A. That he returns to decent health, and hits anything like he did in 2011-12 at ages 26-27. Volume stats in 2012 are prorated:
Season | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | R | OPS+ | RC/27 |
2011 | .324 | .399 | .586 | 39 | 126 | 115 | 172 | 8.7 |
2012 | .303 | .367 | .538 | 35 | 104 | 110 | 147 | 7.0 |
Those are insane Runs per 27 Outs numbers, amigo. Especially for a power hitter who lets the bat fly - high bases-per-outs figures come from the BB experts. You get up near 8 runs, as a cleanup hitter, you are bringin' the PAAAAaaainnnn.
David Ortiz' lifetime is 7.6; Prince Fielder's lifetime RC/27 is 7.5. Meaning, a lineup full of Kemps, Ortizes and Fielders gets you 7.5 runs per game.
Q. How likely is this?
A. It's the single most likely scenario, in my view. Like, a 60%, 70% scenario.
But there are a fair number of players who are great at ages 26-27, and then fall back to ordinary MOTO hitters. Kemp's floor would be what... Nelson Cruz, with speed?
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