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Q.  What is the BEST case scenario in a Matt Kemp deal?

A.  That he returns to decent health, and hits anything like he did in 2011-12 at ages 26-27.  Volume stats in 2012 are prorated:

Those are insane Runs per 27 Outs numbers, amigo.  Especially for a power hitter who lets the bat fly - high bases-per-outs figures come from the BB experts.  You get up near 8 runs, as a cleanup hitter, you are bringin' the PAAAAaaainnnn.

David Ortiz' lifetime is 7.6; Prince Fielder's lifetime RC/27 is 7.5.  Meaning, a lineup full of Kemps, Ortizes and Fielders gets you 7.5 runs per game.

Q.  How likely is this?

A.  It's the single most likely scenario, in my view.  Like, a 60%, 70% scenario.

But there are a fair number of players who are great at ages 26-27, and then fall back to ordinary MOTO hitters. Kemp's floor would be what... Nelson Cruz, with speed?

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Q.  Do you have any data here?

A.  Here is our Dec. 5 mosh off of Bill James' 2011 analysis of Matt Kemp specifically.

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Q.  If the Mariners get Kemp, and he hits like 2011-12, then what?

A.  Then the Mariners wake up one day and find themselves sitting on their own Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, their own Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.  Straight up.  

Cabrera/Fielder, Manny/Papi, Braun/Fielder, two Godzillas, one right and one left.  The rest of their lineups fell into place after that.  And all of those teams accepted a major defensive liability to score their twin-HOF cleanup hitters; if Kemp had to DH or play 1B, then fine.

My wife heard about the Kemp rumors and exclaimed, "What has gotten into the Mariners?!"  Well, maybe a TV deal...

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Q.  What does HQ say?

A.  Thusly:

• Off season shoulder surgery led to slow start
• Then hammy/shoulder/ankle injuries forced 3 separate DL stints and early shutdown
• Best skill sign:  xPX (batted ball velo) held up despite shoulder pain
• Leg probs seem chronic, so no 30 SB seasons left
• AVG and PWR combo provide nice foundation going forward
• 2014:  .282/.361/.536 with 166 Power Index

In other words, they see him as repeating 2012, since the upper-body issues aren't too worrisome.  Leg issues can generally be managed.  Kemp might not play 155 games, but ... don't teams find ways to work around hammy problems?  

The latest at BJOL, James relays that teams don't buy in too much to the idea of "chronic injuries" where these are coming up here-and-there.  The Red Sox were not very concerned about Jacoby Ellsbury's collection of nicks and dings -- "there is no evidence that such a player will continue to get injured in the future."

For what it's worth.

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Q.  Leaving us where?

A.  Dr. D would love, love, love to take a shot at scoring our Cabrera/Fielder combo.  

If the opportunity presented itself ... well, SSI is a Stars & Scrubs kinda place.  At Kemp's $16-18M salary, rather than $28M, it looks like the scenario has unique potential.  You could look back on it as a remarkable "Buy Low."  True, he might start slow in 2014...  :: shrug ::

Looks to me like Matt Kemp IS going to bounce back.  I'd roto-draft him that way.

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Happy New Year,

Dr D