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Wake up to two Doc posts in my stocking! Merry Christmas!
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Q. Franklin Gutierrez, Super Sub? I thought Dr. D was Guti's eternal opponent?
A. Funny thing. Back when they were giving him +6 WAR and four-year deals, I thought the emperor had no clothes. But now that we're talking about him as a 4th outfielder extraordinaire, I'm super stoked.
The 116- Mariners had two main substitutes, Mark McLemore and Stan Javier. They both played so cotton-pickin' ever-lovin' grrrrrrrr-eat that Lou didn't give even 100 at-bats to any other sub.*
*the backup catcher played a little. But it's amazing how few AB's went to anybody else on the bench. Kain't argue with 116 wins, kiddies.
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Q. Is a 4th outfielder a big deal?
A. It never is for us. It sometimes is for good teams, though.
In 2001, Lou's "Secret Weapon" 4th outfielder racked up +2.6 WAR in almost exactly 50% of a full season, but
- That's 2.6 times 2, prorated, so you had a 5-win player in there on Javier's playing days
- The net impact was a 7 WAR player, "on the downlow" ... in those games Javier played, that is
- There was probably impact to his teammates' benefit, too
Javier's +2.6 wins replaced somebody else's -1.0 WAR ... also, you had the "pitcher tension" effect when Every. Single. Night. there were nine hitters who could hurt the pitcher.
Javier got 2.6 wins himself, or a net 3-4 wins vs a bad substitute(s), but there's also no telling what offense his temmates racked up after the pitcher --- > failed to get a rest against Javier.
I don't know of the studies, but I'll bet that the AL's leading offense consistently have 10th, 11th hitters who were a whale of a lot better than the Mariners' have been.
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Q. Could Gutierrez really play as well as Stanley Javier 2001?
A. He could play better.
Javier's OPS+ was 109 that year, which was actually very typical for him. Gutierrez' was 117 last year, 105 the year before ... spotting Gutierrez against pitchers he can hit, it's very easy to imagine him hitting anywhere from 105 to 130.
Defensively? Javier was a smart, quick outfielder, but was no Franklin Gutierrez. Like I sez, I'm really stoked about Franklin Gutierrez as a 4th outfielder. Seems to me he could play a role similar to the NBA 6th Man thingie...
You say Guti has slowed down with the mitt. Well, sure, but (1) youse guys used ta give him +30, +40 runs a year. Slow down from there and what do you have?
And, (2) Gutierrez never did rely on footspeed. He was jumps, angles, easy glide, and strong closing at the wall. Guti's UZR is indeed less dependent on youth than some other guy's.
And, (3) if Guti is an ex-HOF center fielder, what is he as a RIGHT fielder?
Anyway. It says here that Gutierrez will actually play better defense than the 37-year-old Stan Javier, who was credited with +8 runs defensively in part-time play. Whether UZR will record that, I don't much care. Guti will provide a nice glove.
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Q. Gutierrez has played 40 games per year, last two years. What makes you think he might play more this year?
A. Probably 70% of those reading this don't realize that poster "Grumpy" is a gastrointestinal surgeon (no, really). Amazing to me that the blog-o-sphere spends so many words on Franklin Gutierrez, and there is a GI doctor in the virtual house, but there is no stampede into the lobby for free virtual office calls. On Guti's behalf, of course.
Probably 92% of you, reading this, were not aware that a week or two back, Grumpy pegged Gutierrez for "comeback player of the year." Right away, visions of 100-game seasons, 400-AB comebacks, danced in Dr. D's head.
.........
Granted, Guti is not Dr. G's patient, as such.
But it's like if you were sitting in a London pub and asked, "who do you like in the F.A. Cup fixture, Aston Villa or Sheffield?" and everybody laughed all around. "Hey, you want Sheffield at 2:1, mate?"
Being from Seattle, it had escaped your attention that Aston Villa is the equivalent of the Detroit Tigers and Sheffield is the equivalent of the High Desert Mavericks. But the point is, I'll take an Englishman's word over anything in the FA Cup versus the word of somebody who hasn't yet had his first med school class on soccer.
In the Gutierrez analogy, Grumpy doesn't know everything about Gutierrez, but when it comes to Gutierrez' gut, all the rest of us are the equivalents of Americans watching the FA Cup. At least we've got an English bloke at the rail. If he likes Aston Villa over Sheffield, who am I to argue?
So the bloke is betting long on Guti. Okay by Dr. D :- )
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Q. Tell me something I don't know about Franklin Gutierrez.
A. As time goes on, he's swinging harder and wilder, becoming drastically more aggressive:
| Season | BB% | CT% | EYE | PX |
| 2010 | 8 | 76 | .36 | 86 |
| 2011 | 5 | 82 | .30 | 44 (!) |
| 2012 | 6 | 77 | .29 | 104 |
| 2013 | 4 (!) | 63 | .11 | 135 (!) |
Perhaps Dr. G (also) intuited the fact that Gutierrez has been putting increasing smoke on the bat when he lets it fly. Anyway, the fact that Gutierrez is swinging from the wallet is --- > very pleasantly synergistic with the fact that he will get to hit mostly left hand pitching.
His batting lines vs LHP's:
| Season | AVG | OBP | SLG | Remark |
| CAREER vs LHP | .287 | .344 | .474 | Swisher, Willingham, J. Upton |
| 2012 vs LHP | .400 | .437 | .723 | 27 games |
| 2013 vs LH and RH | .248 | .273 | .503 |
If Gutierrez is feeling his oats as Dr. G expects him to be, and if Lloyd McClendon spots him against LHP's and against RHP's that he's comfortable against, I could easily see a .280/.350/.550 type line for Guti in, say, 350 at-bats.
If so, in those particular games that Gutierrez is playing, the M's would effectively have a Justin Upton in the lineup, with a better glove. In that event we'd be rooting for his playing time to expand ... 300, 350, even 400 AB's.
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Q. Give me some examples of 4th outfielders who made big impacts. Preferably guys with health questions who found niches in part-time play.
A. Well, that's exactly what Stan Javier used to do: he was a 90-105 bat who seemed overexposed and pedestrian as a starter. But put him into a 350-AB role ... he was a better player at age 37 than at age 27. I'll bet you could find dozens of players like that, and I hope Franklin Gutierrez now enjoys 5 years of dazzling success in that mold.
Coco Crisp gets anywhere from 30-80 games off, it seems, and "plays up" to a 4.0 WAR / 162 games level because every year, he gets his worst games amputated from his baseball card ...
Craig Gentry is a journeyman, 30-ish (now) outfielder who is given 250-300 AB's by the Rangers, and racks up 3.0 WAR in that amount of time. And he does it in Javier-, Gutierrez-style ... 105 OPS+ and excellent defense. See, there's the Rangers, a powerful club, and they've got a Stan Javier secret weapon in their hip pocket.
Lorenzo Cain is an excellent defensive outfielder whose bat "plays up" in part-time action, allowing him to rack up 4.0 WAR the last two years as a 4th and outfielder.
You could find a lot more. Point is, not everybody can withstand the hot desert sun of 155 games, and if they're going to re-cast Gutierrez as a supersub, he could have a second career in the role. This time as an SSI fave.
Secret weapon city bab-eh,
Dr D
Comments
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... and beats my Reds in the World Series. That was the year Brooks Robinson stole like four Johnny Bench doubles? :- ) Hilarious that, in the wee hours of the morning, I didn't think of all of Earl's big bats, Terry Crowley and Merv and everybody else.
.......
... it hadn't occurred, that Little Nicky could back up on the infield, but he could, couldn't he? why not?
:daps: my friend. Thanks for posting all year. One of the biggest reasons I keep doin' it.
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Stay cool Rickster :- )
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Merv Rettenmund, Doc. Did anybody better know the value of the 4th OF (used correctly) than Earl? But the key for Guti will be to not over use him. Just as you said, give him every vL start (not in CF) and lots of late-inning defense and a few vR starts. 350-400 PA's is about the number. But we've said for a long time that Guti is best used in this capacity. If he were to be our platoon-partner with Morrison (as the lineup is currently configured), then LoMo makes a great deal of sense.
And right now, I'm way into Franklin as 2B/3B/SS/LF.
BTW, did you see that Mark Reynolds apparently spurned the Yankees offer, with indications that he's about to sign elsewhere. Were Seattle that elsewhere I could think of worse Christmas presents. He doesn't demand the investment that Kendrys would (whom I prefer...but perhaps we spend that cash on Tanaka) and he is a real threat against lefties.....
so Smoak sits then.
C: Zunino & ?
1B: Smoak/Reynolds
2B: Cano
3B: Seager
SS: Miller
Util: Franklin
CF: Saunders
RF: Guti/LoMo
COF/DH: Hart
#25/gets vL AB's Bloomquist
That isn't 1 /2 bad, and dang flexible.....even without Kendrys or the Dodger rookie I want.
But I digress. If Guti is our Merv R. then I'm a happy camper.
Merry Christmas, all.
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Reynolds doesn't hit righties or lefties, other than having power, so I'm not sure where he helps much. He could give Seager an occasional day off, but he's not much of a platoon bat. He's probably wanting an opportunity to play a lot, so that doesn't sound like a fit here.
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I just want to say that my feeling on Guti is based on the flimsiest of information, but I'm pulling for him! Merry Christmas, and thanks guys for making his such a great site.
If you guys somehow missed this the last few years, enjoy.
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Do we happen to have anyone who can explain, in small words that aren't composed of a lot of Latin, how Guti's present diagnosis of ankylosing spondylitis is going to affect him as far as flexibility, movement, and the ability to recover? I've Wiki'd it but it isn't exactly geared to how it will impact an athlete playing at the highest level of competition.
Moe's lineup in the first comment is one I can live with. Now if we can another decent starting pitcher, one who isn't just filler, I think we'd be a little dangerous.
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Partially because of his obscured value on the field. Partially because of the value that many of those '01 teammates, and surely others, ascribed to him off the field. From what I've read if there was a Captain of that team it would have probably been Javier.
If Gutierrez is similarly useful on the field I will be enjoying it immensely. Something you touched on that I want to highlight is that he's been better than Javier defensively and offensively. On the field he could be more productive than Javier was without putting up a career year. I've got no idea about how much leadership he provides in the clubhouse. I doubt it's much but that's not a huge concern. I only mention it in comparison to Javier.
Overall the bench looks like a strength as long as a decent backup is brought in for catcher. I'm actually pretty happy with the overall outfield options even though I did want a bit bat added to the outfield. A bit of Guti with a bit of Morrison and Hart can add a bit more than 1 great overall outfielder would have. It keeps options more open to be fluid with all the playing time depending on how any of Saunders, Ackley, Almonte, Guti, Smoak, Morrison and Hart are playing and how healthy they are. If Nick Franklin is really in the mix still it would have to mostly be here, backup 2b and 3b can already mostly be covered by Bloomquist unless both are needed at once. Because of that it seems hard to imagine him going into spring for Seattle, but maybe nobody offers enough value for him before then. I like the Super sub idea for him but he's only really ready to be that at SS and 2b now. 3b and LF will both take some time and the only position he already has over Ackley is SS.
Merry Christmas everyone. Thanks for a good read and baseball things to think about.
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Since I have RA, which, along with Crohn's, Lupus, psoriatic arthritis, and AS, is the result of the immune system running amuck on specific systems in the body, and since I have taken the standard medications to shut down or modify immune function which are used for all of them (corticosteroids, methotrexate, humira, simponi, orencia, etc.), I'll just comment from my own experience.
None of the medicines you take will make you "better" - they only work to help you avoid getting worse, and to slow or stop the action the immune system is causing, such as swelling and stiffness in the joints with RA (basically your joints think they are sprained, so the joint linings swell as if they are sprained - curiously, it happens symmetrically, i.e., to both wrists at the same time in RA). Even with the medicines, you can have "flares", where symptoms appear even when you take your medicines. These happen unpredictably. For me, I get a flare about every 6-8 weeks or so, with no warning - I just wake up with shin splints or swollen feet which make it hard to walk.
The medicines suppress the immune system, so you are more susceptible to infections, etc. I have hay fever allergy problems, but now I get sinus infections during times of high pollen irritation. Other RA patients I know have trouble with cuts healing, etc. Methotrexate, which is also used as a chemo drug for cancer, is nasty, too. It makes me feel like I have the flu for about 24-40 hours after the shot (I take a ~high dose by injection). The drugs like Humira, Simponi, etc. make me feel fatigued the day after I take them (I take the shot prior to bed), but they are every two weeks or every four weeks, and it passes in a day or so. Corticosteroids like prednisone, in ~high doses (for flares) make me feel edgy and irritable for a day or so after the shot or pills.
Based on my experience, although I am considerably older, and ignored the symptoms for years before getting treatment, Guti will be fine ~8 of any 10 days, but will feel a little nauseous or fatigued a few days a month. He will have to be more careful about washing hands and avoiding other sources of infection (hard on planes, though). But I suspect that he can be at full performance for a goodly part of any month, as long as the coaching and training staff are responsive. AS, like RA, will result in morning stiffness (back instead of joint), but it passes by mid-morning - but a comfortable bed really helps! It ain't fun, but it's manageable. If he eats a heavy breakfast during times when he has back stiffness, I would guess his digestion might also be affected, so he'll have to be smart about eating times.
But I like the signing and think he'll be MUCH better now that he's getting regular medication to help. The symptoms of all the autoimmune diseases are subtle and confusing, but once diagnosed and treatment started, life gets better most days, and Guti should be ~95+% on ~80% of days, which will really help the Ms.
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Let me know and I'll be glad to edit the post. :- ) But nobody's holding you to a "diagnosis" doc. Fun to get the casual reaction of a specialist in the subject, is all.
:daps:
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I've got something distantly related ... gall bladder disease I think ... and extreme fatigue goes with the flare-ups, ya. If I can just skip work for four or five days, once a month, the whole thing is no issue :- )
Makes lotsa sense...
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....his career vL numbers are .238-.359-.475. Guti's (who we regard as a sort of lefty masher) are .287-.344-.474. Guti's vL OPS is .818 and Reynolds' is .834. He hits lefties just fine.
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Career OPS, sure, if you like Gorman Thomas or Dave Kingman. I was looking more at his 2013, though, where it looks like diminishing skills. He turned 30 last August, and I'm sure he's wishing he can revisit his career OPS. Don't trust anyone over 30. Oops, Cano is even older.
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AS is not a uniform disease. Everything is very individualized from severity, dominant symptoms, to response to treatment. Also, I'm a surgeon (mainly cancer though I do work on some ~related disorders like Crohn's disease), and AS is a nonsurgical disease. I have some experience with it and its treatment, but I'm not an expert. I'm basing my optimistic opinion for Gutz based on his ability to play at a high level last year in part time play (presumably after his diagnosis and initiation of the appropriate treatments) indicating good response to treatment, as well as how I've seen *some* patients with AS and similar conditions respond to the appropriate treatments (of course none of them were world class athletes either). Part of his success in the power dept may be related to pitchers overchallenging him confident that they were dealing with "zombie" Guti. Who can say? But boy is the guy due a break. He's obviously a fighter. It is entirely reasonable to expect Guti to do well in part time play, spotted into advantageous matchups. Maybe we could even get more, though that would obviously be icing.
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Thanks very much.
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Yeah, all the autoimmune disorders are VERY individual, which is why I could ignore mine for so long ;-) ! Hopefully he responds well to his treatment plan and our optimistic hopes prevail. I expect it will ultimately depend on how well McClendon, Griffin, and Guti can communicate with each other and how he's used as a result.