Autumn in Arizona, Redux

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moethedog accidentally put his AFL article under the "ALL" domain, as Dr. D also accidentally does, about twice a week.  We moved it to the baseball subdomain here, so the "byline" unfortunately appears as jemanji. Keith wrote it.

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Farmhand Eric Filia is still leading the Arizona Fall League in hitting.  His .410-.500-.641 line means he is leading in OBP and OPS, as well.

So I got to thinking:  What does it mean to win the batting title in the AFL?  Well, as it turns out, it is decently meaningful.

The AFL batting champion in '16 was Gleyber Torres.  He's now ranked as the #3 prospect, in all of baseball, by Baseball America.  He just hit .309 in AAA and will be up by June of '18.  Oh, Cody Bellinger hit .314-.424-.557 in the AFL in '16.

In '15, the champion was Adam Engel.  He made it to the bigs with the White Sox this season, hitting .166 in an extended trial. Oh, Gary Sanchez hit .295-.357-.625 that fall.

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Korner: Experts, Laymen, and the Search for Truth

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James' article today concerned the JonBenet Ramsey case.  He has made it a public quest to exonerate Patsay Ramsey and he presents his own analysis of four handwritten documents.  The "question" is whether a person like James, who has no "credentials" in handwriting analysis, is entitled to present his own arguments as to whether Ramsey's handwriting matches that of the ransom note.

I doubt there is any Denizen here who feels it is a bad thing for James to present detail arguments, for the layman's consideration, on any subject.  Obviously his detail arguments are subject to rebuttal, whether by layman or expert.

We try to be sparing when quoting James' copyrighted material, but I'll bet he would prefer that we include his "preamble" in its entirety:

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Dr. Lorena Martin

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Matt sez, in response to the fact that SportSpyder captured some headlines referring to Dr. Martin,

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Want some chatter on Martin.  No...not Leonys. Lorena.

After years of complaining that the Mariners are HORRIBLE at keeping players both healthy and maximally productive for their ability, the Mariners are trying something new and bringing in a guru in combining sports psychology, sports performance analytics, and training science into a big-data-driven department to oversee player conditioning, mental skills training, and conditioning science.

She wrote a book...any of you want to read it and tell me how she thinks? :)

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State of the M's Blog-O-Sphere - Nov 2017

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Chucky wrote a comment, thanks for throwing a 'tater in the pot bud, and we realized it could feasibly make for a lively chat ...

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[Rick sez] Btw, outside of Root sports during the season and the statistics sites for statistics, doc, this is the only place I go for Mariner information anymore. You’re a great gatekeeper. To borrow from Simon and Garfunkel: I get all the news I need from the Jemanji report. The other great thing is the community vetts and augments your stuff so well. This has gone, for me anyway, from the best Mariner site to the only Mariner site.

There are other sites that talk about the Mariners? 

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Of 164-160 Records and the Mystique of Epignosis

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The first half of David Laurila's fine interview sounded, to many of us, a little too much "I could tell you, but I'd have to kill you," especially in view of Seattle's 30-ish run differential over the last two years combined.  The second part of that interview was more specific:

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On pitching philosophy and park effects: “(Pitching coach) Mel Stottlemyre, Jr. has a great plan with his pitchers. More importantly, they have trust in him. This is the guy you want to go into battle with. He’s a trenches guy. Stot has been on major league mounds almost since he was born. He grew up in a great baseball family. His dad was not only a great major league pitcher, but then a fantastic major league pitching coach.

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Our pal Diderot especially has asked re Stot, "What have you done for me lately, or less recently, or in fact at any time."  LOL.  Noncomittally, we could reply, "any Mariner who did good over that time," such as Zeus or such as Erasmo's cutter or such as half our guys, but we suspect Diderot would point (with some resonance) to the possibility of these good things happening whoever was pitching coach.

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Random Light Bulbs and Methodically-Inflicted Stolen Bases

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Sad as it may sound, Dr. D was noodling through the February 2012 Hey Bills.  He enjoyed the cogency of this remark:

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Would it be fair to say that, while stolen bases are, in general, net neutral and the sacrifice is, over all, a net negative, that they can be valuable in creating a specific run at a highly leveraged time? That teams need players who can do these things because you never when you'll need to play "small ball" to carve out a run? Or do teams lose just as often as they win when trying to push across a key run?
Asked by: DanaKing

Answered: 2/27/2012
Teams lose just as often as they win trying to play small ball.   IF you could manufacture a run on demand, that would make those runs critical.  
 
The essential problem with this defense of the stolen base--like the last one--is that it explains a phenomenon that unfortunately can't be found in the data. IF the problem was that teams that stole bases had an UNEXPLAINED tendency to win, then this theory--like the other one--would help to unravel the mystery.   But since there is no such unexplained tendency of stolen bases to correlate with wins, creating additional reasons why there SHOULD be such a correlation is not helpful. 
The reality is that stolen bases DON'T correlate with winning, basically at all.  
The more reasons you give why there SHOULD be such a correlation, the further you move from having a viable understanding of the world in which you live.   What is needed is not an explanation of why there should be an unexplained linkage between stolen bases and wins, but an explanation of why there isn't. 

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1.  Sports Is Life.  How many times, TODAY, did you and I commit this crime against logic, do you suppose.  Of trying to explain (for example) why a friend thinks a certain way ... when actually there's very little reason to imagine he thinks that.

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Two Years On

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At Fangraphs, David Laurila did this entrance interview of Dipoto and how he would differ from Zduriencik.  Looking back with the advantage of 24 months' evidence into the hopper:

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Jerry Dipoto has a plan. Importantly, he also has the autonomy to implement it. Free from the shackles of Anaheim, he’s now able to do his own thing, with his own people, in Seattle. That’s good news for Mariners’ fans.

Dipoto is doing more than simply replacing Jack Zduriencik as Seattle’s general manager. He’s enacting philosophical change. The erstwhile Angels GM is a former player with a scouting background, but he’s also one of the most analytically inclined front office executives in the game. The Mariners will be many things under Dipoto’s leadership; backwards isn’t one of them.

Dipoto shared his vision for the team during this week’s GM meetings in Boca Raton.

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DiPoto on the organization’s change of philosophy: “The philosophy I’m bringing over here is pretty different. I respect Jack Zduriencik – he’s had a wonderful baseball career and I’m sure he’ll continue to have one – but we’ll do things differently than he did. We see things through a different lens. I’m not going to tell you exactly how, because then it’s no longer an advantage, but it is significantly different. Regarding [the Angels], it would be fair to say that this is a different environment for me.”

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Dipoto's Trade Volume

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In the BJOL series on Organizations and Eras, James seems to list four ways to acquire talent that comprise about 80%, 90% of the route to acquiring talent and contending:

  • Trades.
  • Picking up scrubs and players other teams have rejected.
  • The minor leagues.
  • Free agency.

For some reason, most baseball fans consider #3 the "pure" way to add talent, the "right" way.  Dr. Detecto has absolutely no bias towards this method.  I mean, he'd rather have Houston's farm system than ours -- but then again, he'd rather have Pat Gillick's eye for a journeyman MLB player than Woody Woodward's.  And which, really, is based more on skill and less on luck?  The evaluations that Gillick and Epstein make with 3rd-year MLB players, or the guessing that 30 draft war rooms do in the 4th round of an ammy draft?

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The Chris Taylor Deal

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thescore.com has Jerry Dipoto on record, confessing as to the WORST trade he ever made:  Chris Taylor:

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"It's clearly the worst deal I've ever made," DiPoto told Matt Calkins of the Seattle Times. "And it resonates every time he hits a home run."

... "I whiffed. There’s no other way to categorize it," DiPoto added. "He’s young, he was under club control - that was one I wish I could undo."

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Wellllll .... when we say "How could I have gone so WRONG?" there are definitely your Darren Dreifort contracts out there.  But the irony here is that Dr. D was just about to write up a post EXONERATING Dipoto for most of this one, the Chris Taylor deal.

Before Dr. D goes off on his /rant he will first remark on this curious aspect of MLB GM'ing.  Since Broglio-for-Brock it's customary for every GM to wince upon the pain of every single Brock stolen base.  The worst pain George Steinbrenner could ever suffer, it seemed, was watching Jay Buhner bounce sliders off the ambulances out beyond the left-center wall.  That's whether or not the Mariners are losing 100 while the Yankee$ are winning 100 ....

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Ben Gamel's Age-Arc

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SABRMatty axed, re James' rookie-tier system,

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The quality of a season should probably be up-rated the younger a player is when having it...not sure to what level...my guess would be that you'd have to do some back-of-the-envelope math to determine how starting age correlated with average rookie OPS or somesuch and adjust your ratings accordingly.

Re: Game and Heredia and Haniger...

I think Heredia's rookie year was misleading...he got poor ratings because he played the last half of the season with a dislocated shoulder recurring regularly without telling anyone on the team about it, apparently.

But I definitely like Haniger over Gamel. :)

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