Tampa

Location Type: 
City
Profile count: 
31 662

Do the M's need to go get a bat?

.

"In theory, theory and practice are the same.  In practice, they are not." - Dr. D's Epic File Folder of Thunderous Paradoxes, mostly plagiarized from obscure chess books

.

GLS sez, "Two hitters are better than one ... 

 "... And three great hitters are better than two.

"In the latter half of the 90's, we had Griffey, A-Rod, and Edgar in the same lineup and yes, there were some good teams, but not what you would call great. Not great like the Tigers are this year. But we had a legit murderer's row, and not-great pitching.

"And for these Tigers, it isn't just about those two hitters. Note that they have Ian Kinsler batting leadoff and having a pretty darn good year, and Rajai Davis batting ninth as a second leadoff man. Davis would be leading off on most other teams instead of batting ninth. Then there's that starting rotation, which is just flat-out solid. My point is that, as a team, the Tigers are doing well because they're strong in multiple dimensions of the game.

"The Mariners are basically the opposite of the Tigers. I don't see the problem as the lack of that second big bat behind Cano. The problem is that they're young and as team, they don't have any areas of strength like the Tigers do. As a team, they aren't really awesome at anything.

.........

"There was the hope that Paxton and Walker would do that for the starting rotation and maybe that's what we'll see in the second half of the season that we can point to going into 2015.

"Now, if the Mariners did go out and get that second really good hitter, you could point to that as an area of strength. Nothing wrong with that. But there are a lot of areas where they can improve which will help them win games. And they are doing that I think. This team is better than last year's team, and in Miller, Franklin, Romero, and Zunino, we have three rookies or near-rookies that probably aren't the players now that they will be two years from now, or so we hope. But then, that's where talent evaluation comes in, especially with your own players.

Okay, I think I said what I needed to say."

...

From a sabermetric standpoint, I couldn't agree more amigo.

Theoretically you can certainly build a pennant-winner off of one Straw That Stirs.  That is our model in Tampa Bay, where they put Evan Longoria into the middle of the lineup and don't spend much $$$dinero except for him.

Taijuan Needs to Make the Team, Eh

.

PhxTerry sez,

OBF - Concerning the M's decision-making in 2014 regarding AA as starting CFer/lead-off batter and Maurer over E-Ram as starting pitcher, we have ongoing, basic incompentence. There is no other explanation. How the M's Brain Trust can look the team's few remaining fans straight in the eye and state that they really want to make the play-offs is beyond me.

Yeah, the lack of urgency has driven Dr. D batty since August 1, 2001.   That's not two thousand eleven; I'm talking about spitting away the 116-win season because it's always the title 4 years from now that matters.  (In 2018 it will be the 2022 title that matters.)

......

Larry LaRue said something about Shannon Drayer that made me stop and think, "Well, okay, good for her."  He remarked that she'd never made any secret of the fact that she has her dream job.  

"Soft Skills, No Hit, 5 War Player"- Inverted

.

Nelson Cruz went to the Baltimore Orioles for 1 year, $8M.  He is an unrestricted free agent in four months.

Pull up Baseball-Reference on the Orioles -- the team the Mariners are chasing in the Wild Card -- and it shows you that Cruz is the Orioles' best player, by WAR.  (He is not there for WAR; he is there to change the scoreboard.)  

He has 15 homers in 45 games ... let me divide 162 by 3 here real quick ... and 43 RBI in those 45 games.  (Cano and Seager lead our team with 28 RBI each; we feel very relieved to have Mike Zunino's 18 RBI, which pro-rate to about 70.)

..........

Needless to say, if Cruz hits 44 homers, drives in 137 runs, and the Orioles win the pennant, then ... the skeptics will still have been right about Nelson Cruz.  It's about process.  (And you know where to find The Right Process!)

Even if Cruz hit 200 homers from here to the end of the wire, they'd still have been right.  This is, as you are only too well aware, a peeve of Dr. D's.   

… Mariners 8!

.

Q.  How often does C.J. Wilson give up 6 earnies?

A.  Last year, twice -- at Texas, on July 30, and at the Dodgers, on May 27.  I don't notice that either game was on Opening Day* or against a lefty lineup.

The year before, three times -- at Texas, at Fenway (LOL!) and the Tampa Rays got him at home.

In 2011, Wilson didn't yield six earned runs all season, despite pitching the year in Texas.  So, there you go -- it's a miniscule 5% of the time that Wilson coughs up 6+, and never under favorable circumstances.

The Mariners are no longer "favorable circumstances."  QED.

;- )

.

Q.  Who else in the American League is 2-0?

A.  Read it and weep, you pesky rodent Angel fans.  I know one team that isn't.

.

Q.  Are the Angels worried at all?

A.  Want to see them in full-on panic mode?  ALREADY?  Check it out rat cheer :- )

.

Q.  What precisely is going on with Dustin Ackley's game?  Sabermetrically, first.

A.  On TV, they advertise that he's been too patient - last year's 50% swing rate on strikes was 2nd-lowest in baseball, sez they.  Personally, I wouldn't agree.  So far this year his overall swing rate is the same as it has been.  It's not like he's going up there hacking.

But!  He's having a much easier time reading the pitches.  O-Swing is "swings outside the zone," Z-Swing is "swings when pitch is a strike," and so forth:

Year O-Swing% Z-Swing% O  Contact% Z Contact% CT%
2013 25% 52 74 (grrr) 91 86
2014 13 67 0 (!!) 100 (!!) 86
ML average 30 61 61 86 77

His swings, and contact rate, aren't different.  What IS different, is that he is very easily deciding what is a good pitch and what isn't.

.

Q.  The above table tells us about X and Y axis.  How about the Z axis -- the front and back of the zone?

Accused. Tried. Convicted. of LAZINESS.

.

Q.  Is Dr. Detecto routinely genteel and friendly towards the Mariners' front office?

A.  Routinely.

.

Q.  Explain to us, again, why Bill James has been on that crusade that --- > LH relievers are overused?

A.  Thusly:

  • The platoon advantage is .040 worth of batting average.  It ain't a big fat hairy deal.
  • Managers put mediocre lefties in to replace good righties - the gap in pitcher quality often (far) exceeds the generic platoon advantage.
  • Managers also put BAD lefties in to replace good righties.
  • Managers also bring lefties in to replace good RHP's who are throwing great that night.

Look, kiddies.  Are you going to pinch-hit Willie Bloomquist for Brad Miller, because you're so flippin' obsessed with having a curve ball break in towards the hitter?  The direction of the break renders the individual player obsolete?

.

Q.  Surely managers are aware of these numbers.

A.  Yeah, but they don't want to fight the battle.  "Hey, I brought in my lefty to face Prince Fielder.  Sure, he went upper tank and we lost.  But it ain't on me."

Jesus Montero Scouting Report - Peoria

.

Yang, dept.

OKDan, an excellent poster, gives us a fun report from onsite:

I just cannot foresee any situation in which Montero makes this team, regardless of his xbh's. Been down here in peoria for a few days, and his lack of interest in the game of baseball is palpable. Watched him take grounded on a side field, where he bobbled or straight up missed 30-40% of them. Then watched him stand in the back row during some group calisthenics, and he was barely even trying. Half-heartedly bending over while everyone else was going gull tilt.

During the game, the crowd over by 1st was letting him have it all night. Might have been cubs fans though. He dropped a foul popup, botched a grounder, and nearly took his foot off the base on the 8th out. The next inning, I watched as all 3 other infielders stood out in the field waiting to do their warmups, while Montero was the last one out there, and they had to cut it short before the leadoff AB.

I dunno. Could be that I caught him at his worst moments, and am ascribing motivations where there aren't any. But from my perspective, the guy doesn't give a rip about the game, and it's obvious to the manager and the players on the field with him. If anyone else gets passed over in favor of Montero, I don't think it will go over well in the clubhouse.

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/137439#comment-137439

...

Thanks Dan!  Keep da onsite reports comin' my man.

And DaddyO seconds this emotion.  :- )  He points out that "head cases are rarely worth their contribution."  If that's what Montero is -- a Manny Ramirez type before he's ever done anything -- then there does come a point where you can cheerfully wash your hands of him, and never worry about what he does anywhere else. 

Just as a f'r instance, we recall Bill James (a Royals fan) write up a long analysis showing that Danny Tartabull was (at the time) the #3 right hand hitter in the American League.  He finished with a short paragraph:  Who Needs Him.

...

Seahawks' "Identity"

.

After the Buccaneers game, the News Tribune featured a couple of Dr. D's pals in real life.  Pictured above.  All the credit for this incident properly accrues to Dr. D, of course.

....

On the NFL Network, they were marvelling at the way the Seahawks have developed such a distinctive "identity" so soon ... considering, said Rich Eisen, that he had asked Pete Carroll about his "identity" just in 2011 and the Seahawks had none.

Carroll inherited a pile of hot garbage, retorted Deion, and he needed some time.  Anyway, they went on to mention a couple of things.  Here are those couple things, as well as a couple of ours:

.

"Competing."

The Seahawks' "Competition Wednesday," or whatever, consists of drill contests with 1's vs 1's.  Sounds cliche to us, but the ex-players were impressed.  Wow, they have a lot of fun with it, and wow, is it fierce competition.

Dr. D's reaction:  Michael Jordan was famous for this ... there's a story about how Phil Jackson wanted his side to lose a scrimmage, and switched Jordan to the losing side when down 8-0 (in baskets) going to 11.  Jordan started screaming, going for the freight-train dunks along the baseline, and his team won 11-8...  The Jordan Bulls thought of themselves as "attack dogs."

The Seahawks go bare-knuckle, every down, every game, every player, no quarter asked and none given.  That's what sports should be.  

...

Zduriencik's template … the Tampa Rays?!

.

Another fascinating idea that JZ threw out during the Hot Stove broadcast ... that Tampa deploys one real HOF position player, and finds young players to put around him.

This isn't an idea that you'll find on a pure-sabr site, which is limited to the "simple WAR accumulation" paradigm.  But it's an idea that you'll consistently find when talking to great baseball architects.  

For example, Whitey Herzog used George Brett in KC, and Jack Clark in St. Louis, to anchor ballclubs that he built around pitching.  In The White Rat, Whitey revealed that "our entire offense was built around the idea of getting men on base for Jack Clark."

This is controversial, and it's a cognitive dissonance between sabes and baseball people.  Give the White Sox one Paul Konerko, and they'll shuffle the pieces around him for a decade, figuring that things will work out okay...

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - Tampa